Time to improve your knowledge with some basics!
Its always amazed me how naive some punters can be, it´s as though they want to be ripped off. Take Special or teasers as the American´s call them, the traditional bookmakers margin/juice increases, which is good for them and bad for the punter. Despite that, this article is not meant to preach what you should or should not bet, afterall, one man´s poison is another man´s cure, everyone needs to decide for themselves. Our objective in this tutorial is to inform the punter, by making them more observant .
Lets start off with some basics, these odds are taken from one bookmakers chart, we are shopping within their offer:
You think a soccer game will be very low scoring and you would like to take the no goal option. In front of me, i have open the betting offer from several platforms, the same mistake repeats itself again and again:
-First team to score : no first goal : 9.50 (odds)
-Total goal market : under 0.5 goals 12.00
-Correct score : 0-0 odds 10.00
-Winning margin : No score draw 13.75
-Number of goals : no goals 10.00
-Name of goalscorer : no goal 9.00
The above bets are all the same, with the exception of ¨name of goalscorer¨, the reason for that is ¨own goal¨is not quoted. So which odds to you take ? Believe me, many people would bet what they understand and that would be 0-0 @ 10.00, how crazy is that when you can get a 37.5% increase by betting winning margin ¨no score draw¨ @ 13.75
Other goal markets offer similar opportunity, in short these are the same bets:
First half goals : no goal 2.70
Number of goals 1st H : no goals 2.85
Correct score 1st H : 0-0 odds 3.00
Team A to score : yes 1.37
Team B cleansheet : no 1.36
All of the above bets are the same, despite being offered at different odds. I could give 100´s of examples in each market but it´s important that you learn how to use your own brain. I mean, any 12 year old with basic matches should be able to spot the same bets.
I´ve moved onto another match since i was looking for a game where the odds where similar, take a look at these observations.
Match odds : Team B 2.80
Asians : Team B -0.5 2.70 (Same as must win)
Match odds : Team A 2.60
Asians : Team A -0.5 2.44 (Crazy)
Asians : Team B ¨0¨ 2.01 (Asian ¨0¨= DNB)
Draw no bet : Team B 1.90
Asians : Team A ¨0¨ 1.84
Draw no bet : Team A 1.76
3 Way handicap : Team A +1 1.43
Double Chance : Team A X1 1.41
The next thing we would like to consider is creating your own value, since the Bookmakers often short changes punters taking double chance or betting with the h´cap. Imagine this scenario:
You went to a supermarket and wanted to buy some oranges at €1 per kilo, but their was another option to buy 5 kg for €6, what would you do ?. Wait a minute, did he really mean €6, so the price increased?. Yes i did, it happens often with ¨leisure bookmakers¨ . Lets look at the example below to explain a little better the double chance:
A Leisure bookmaker offers the following odds:
TEAM A DRAW TEAM B 1X 12 X2
2.7 3.3 2.8 1.45 1.35 1.50
Should you take the double chance odds or create your own ?
To compare these odds we need to convert the odds into percent (%). We do that by taking the line and divide into 100:
TEAM A : 100/2.70 = 37.0%
DRAW : 100/3.30 = 30.3%
TEAM B : 100/2.80 =35.8%
Option 1X = 37.0 + 30.3 = 67.3% - Convert into odds 100/67.3% = 1.49
Option X2 =30.3 +35.8 = 66.1% - Convert into odds 100/66.1%= 1.51
Opton 12 = 37.0 +35.8 = 72.8% - Convert into odds 100/72.8% = 1.37
By splitting your bet you will receive the true odds (dark):
1X = 1.49 (bookie offer 1.45)
2X =1.51 (bookie offer 1.50)
12 =1.37 (bookie offer 1.35)
To calculate handicap is slightly more complicated, since you will need to know the true odds of the game being won by exactly 1 goal, we will use these odds as a guide:
Score Odds %
1-0 8,50 11.8
2-1 12.0 8.3
3-2 50.0 2.0
4-3 500.0 0.2
Total percent (22.3)
Any of the above outcomes would result in a win for handicap X , to find the correct odds we use the same formula 100/22.3% = odds 4.5
To find the odds of the home team covering the handicap, they need to win by more than one goal. We take the home odds 2.7 (37%) and deduct 22.3% = 14.7% (odds 6.80)
This is how you get to see the bookmaker biased.
Handicap (0:1) 1 X 2
Bookie 5.75 4.30 1.50
Correct odds 6.80 4.50 1.51
Bookie 17.4 23.3 66.7 (107.4)
Correct % 14.7 22.3 66.1 (103.1)
The Above is a simple guideline.
ITS IMPORTANT YOU UNDERSTAND - VALUE IS EVERYTHING AND THAT BEING LAZY OR PLAIN STUPID IS NOT AN EXCUSE - IF YOU WANT TO WIN!