ASIAN PROFESSIONAL BETTORS FORMULA - HOW THE CALCULATE PERFORMANCE
When it comes to judging performance. Asians, Americans and Europeans tick differently. Maybe it´s a cultural thing, but i tend to think it´s down to the way we wager. In Asia and America professional punters are judged on the percentage of games they win (ratio). For me has a Brit i'm only interested in ROI (Return on investment). However, their is no right or wrong here, and it´s really down to what works for the individual. One thing is certain. Asian and American bookmakers offer better value than traditional European bookmakers. Afterall, they work with lower juice such has 4 cent lines (1.96 1.96), while in Europe 10 cents is nearer the mark. In fact, some bookmakers like Pinnaclesport claim to use dynamic lines, similar to those used on the stock market. And, by that we mean lines move according to weight of money, supply and demand.
Spreads for American sports are probably easier to work with, because the likes of basketball averages 200 points per game That in turn allows the bookmakers to move the spread by a point or two to adjust according to the weight of money. In European football (soccer) it's not the same, and the reason is the numbers are lower. You know football probably averages 2.5 goals per game, so that means adjusting the line (odds) rather than the spread, unless of course it's a heavy move! .
When i used to speak with people from Singapore they used to drive me crazy. And, that's because they refuse to understand why we calculate success as a return on investment. For them it was we will beat the market if we're right on at least 51.5% of occasions, and it's the only thing that interests us. A formula that is often used in Asia is the Square root + 50% of total bets placed, here's your example.
100 Bets placed=
v100 = 10 (sq. root) + 50 (half of total bets placed) = 60
60 win/40 lose = (60%/40%)
400 Bets placed=
v400 = 20 (sq. root) + 200 (half of total bets placed) = 220
220 win/180 lose = (55%/45%)
900 Bets placed =
v900 = 30 (sq. root) + 450 (half of total bets placed) = 480
480 win/420 lose= (53.33%/ 46.67%)
As you can see the above formula is more forgiving if the tipster had placed many bets. Afterall, expectancy at one hundred is 60% . However, by 900 bets that falls to 53.33% . That's all well and good until the numbers get extremely high, because if the number was 5000 the sq. root would be 70.7 . Following the 50% rule (2500) that number required is 2570.7. A bettor/syndicate placing these amount of bets would need a success rate just 51.14%.
Big betting Syndicates work on a high number of bets, so they are comfortable with a lower strike rate. However, others are more select and need an higher score. It really doesn't matter how you get to finish line, since it's all one big numbers game!!