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CALCULATION - DRAW NO BET!

Manufacture own odds
 
 
Whether through lack of knowledge or sheer laziness many punters miss the obvious. Bookmakers are particular good at dressing up prices with what they call ‘special bets’. In our maths lessons we learnt, take an estimate, it´s a good way of checking that you are near the mark, i must admit, i´m always switched on when it comes to money, i know what my restaurant bill should look like and i´ve saved a fortune on hotel Bills by being awake, it´s just a matter of practice!
 
Here we will consider Draw no Bet and how Bookmakers manipulate the odds, there are 3 cases to study.
 
1.Bookmakers offer
2.Odds if buying insurance
3.Correct odds (the ones you should get)
 
Example:
 
Outright   1 X 2                  Draw nobet   1 2
Odds  1.50 4.0 7,0                Bookmakers offer 1,10 5.0 
Percent  66.7 25.0  14.3                  Inc. insurance 1,125 5.25
Total percent            (106%)                             Correct odds 1.148 5.36
 
Onto the calculation, using 100 units staked.
 
Insurance
 
For both set of odds (Home/Away) we need to buy ‘insurance’ which is the ‘draw’, the odds are 4.0, we need to place 25 on this outcome (100/4 = 25).We are left with 75 units.
 
To find the odds taking insurance:
 
75 units @ odds 1.50 = 112.5    (odds 1.125)
75 units @ odds 7.0 =   525       (odds 5.25) 
 
 
Another example with compact odds:
 
Outright  1  X 2                   Draw no bet 1 2
Odds   2.50  3.45  2.7                  Bookie offer 1.75 1.90 
Percent  40.0  29.0  37.0                      Inc. insurance 1.78 1.92 
Total percent               (106 %)                               Correct odds        1.82  1.96
 
Using 100 units for the calculation:
 
For both set of odds we need to buy ‘insurance’ which is the ‘draw’, the odds are 3.45 so 29 units (100/3.45=28.99), 71 units are remaining.
To find odds taking insurance:
 
71 units @ 2.50 = 177.5 (odds 1.775)
71 units @ 2.70 = 191.7 (odds 1.917)
 
For those who think including insurance is the key, think again, have you noticed the Books margin has increased? 
 
Explanation,the margin is increasing,instead of buying the bookmakers advantage once ,it´s being bought twice, the 106% is being multiplied!
 
To address this a bookmaker should discount the draw by converting the 106% Draw odds into 100%,by doing this the margin will remain intact!
 
I’ll keep it as simple as possible, the draw price in our latter example is 3.45 (29%), to discount the excessive margin.
 
29.0 * 0.06 = 1.74 (discount) we need to take the original insurance cost minus the discount 29.00 -1.74 = 27.26
Stake minus discounted insurance = 100 – 27.26 (72.74)
 
72.74 * odds 2.5 = DNB odds 1.819 (1.82 rounded) percent 55%
72.74 * odds 2.7 = DNB odds 1.964 (1.96 rounded) Percent 51%
 
Job done, return to 106% !
 
A decent Bookmaker would reduce that margin further to something like 4%, take into consideration 3 possibles results have gone down to 2, the draw would become void!
 
For the record, if you would like to convert 106% into 104% (106/104) = 1.019
 
1,819 * 1.019 = 1.85 (54%)
1.96  *  1,019 = 2.0  (50%)
 
For the connoisseur who needs to know how the 100% Book should work out, simple:
 
1.819*1.06 = 1.928 (51.9%)
1.964*1.06 = 2.08   (48.1%)
 
I made things a little easier for myself but you see the formula!