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BET CLEVER - HANDICAP AND DOUBLE CHANCE!

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In this section we are going to take consider handicap and doublechance betting, because bookmakers sometimes shade the odds in their favor. In fact, while British bookmakers tend to work on exact maths, their Germanic and Scandinavian equivalent are well known for shortening the true odds. 


Imagine the odds of a football match being 2.35 3.20 3.30, bookmakers like Tipico, Bet3000, Expekt, Bwin and Betsson are likely to offer 1.60 about the double chance (X2). And, it's simply wrong in our opinion, since the true odds should be around 1.62. The idea of this article is to help you understand when you are being stiffed, so you can take alternative action - i.e. divide your stake for optimum value.




1X2 – Handicap – Double chance.


I just took these odds from a Scandinavian bookmaker.


                                    1            X            2                      

Bookmaker odds        1.90       3,50        4.0                     

Converted Percent %  52.6      28.6       25.0 (106.2)



Handicap

                                                                                                                                         

Handicap Betting  (0-1)          3,50       3,60       1,85                                                                               

Converted Percent %             28.6       27.8       54.1 (110.5) 

                   

True odds should be:           3.94      3.68      1.87 (106.2)  -SEE EXAMPLE BELOW-



Double chance


Double chance                       1X          X2          12

Bookmaker odds                     1,20       1,85       1,12

Converted Percent %              83.3       54.1       89.3  (226.7)


True odds should be            1.23      1.87      1.14 (212.6)




Note: These odds are rounded for an easier understanding.



How to calculate odds into percent:


Take 100 and divide by odds, example: 100/1.85 = 54.1% another example 100/3.50 = 28.6 and so on!



Double chance:


Odds of the three double chances needs dividing by 2, so from the above example  212.6/2 =106.3





How to calculate Handicap betting - Using Betfairs 100% correct score book (true odds) we can establish: 



For the game to end in a handicap draw, the numbers we need to consider are 1-0, 2-1, 3-2, 4-3. Afterall, the home team needs to win by exactly one goal. And, to cover the handicap they need to win by more than one goal.


Note: Betfair exchange can be a useful tool for the intermediate punter, because it's easy to read and operates on a near to 100% book. Just check out that the total percent is close to 100% and make some marginal adjustments if necessary. For example, if the odds for 1-0 are back 8.80 and lay 9.20 , odds can be rounded to the average 9.0,.


Using the game above we acquired the following correct score odds:

 

1-0  odds  9.0  = 11,1%

2-1  odds  10.0 = 10%

3-2  odds   25.0 = 4%

4-3  odds  200.0= 0.5%


Total percent    = 25.6%    



Having established the 100% Book price and we need to add the Bookmakers margin and increase the Book price to 106.2%


To keep this simple we take the hundred percent odds of 25.6 * 1.062 = 27.187%  Convert to odds 100/27.187% = Odds 3.68 (easy) The handicap draw should be 3.68


To find the odds of the home team covering the handicap, we need original odds 1.90 (52.6%) minus converted book percent (27.187) = 25.4%, Turn into odds 100/25.4% =Odds 3.94

 

Real odds at 106.1%     Difference 


Home 3.94 (25.4%)  Book odds 3.50 (28.6%)  - 3.2%

Draw 3.68 (27.2%) Book odds 3.60 (27.8%)   -0.6%

Away 1.87 (53.5%) Book odds 1.85 (54.1%)   -0.6%


Check         106.1%                                     110.5% (-4.4%)


What can you learn from the above?


The Bookmaker is keeping the home team artificially short, 

At Bookies odds, 10 would win you 25 (odds 3.50)

Correct odds , 10 would win you 29.40 (odds 3.94)

The difference is an incredible 17.6%


Draw odds go from 3.60 to 3.68 (3% difference)


Away odds of from 1.85 to 1.87 ( 2.3% difference)