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VALUE - EVERY POINT COUNTS!

Tricks of the trade!
 
Street market traders and supermarkets offer discounts for bulk buying, the more you buy the cheaper the unit/kilo/liter price becomes, its called discounting!, in the bookmaking industry the opposite can be often true, let´s take a German facing Bookmaker called Bet3000, as i write they have the following odds:
 
                                Osasuna        Draw        Villareal           1X             12              X2                   
 
Bet 3000                    2.7                  3.3            2.8                  1.45         1.35           1.50                                                   
Correct odds              -                       -               -                     1.486       1.37           1.51                                                    
 
 
Bet 3000 %               37.0               30.3         35.8  (103.1)     69.0       74.1            66.7 (209.8)                                     
Correct %                   -                        -               -                   67.3       72.8            66.1 (206.2)                                  
 
 
 
                                                 
 
 
Handicap (0:1)            1                    X                2
 
Bet3000                      5.75              4.30          1.50
Correct odds              6.80              4.50           1.51
 
Bet3000 %                 17.4              23.3            66.7 (107.4)
Correct %                   14.7              22.3           66.1 (103.1)
 
 
 
Numbers are rounded for convenience although i took 1X to the next decimal point, will be a very small discrepancy)
 
Double chance 
What we can see, if we divide stakes correctly we can obtain better value, examples:
 
We want to bet that Osasuna do not lose, rather than accept the bookmakers odds of 1.45 (bet 100 for a 145 return), we take the odds of Home win 2,70 , now we need to work out how much of 100 we need to place to return 148.60 (148.60¬2.7 odds)= 55.00 
100 stake - 55 Home = 45 remaining units
Place the 45 @ 3.30 odds = 148.50 
 
Conclusion, from our bet of 100, instead of accepting the bookmakers downgraded odds we have divided our stake correctly and increased the potential win from 45.00 to 48.50/ 48.60 , that´s at least 3.50 more (circa 7% difference).
 
It´s the same for and double chance 12 /  X2  
 
Handicap
 
To find the odds for the handicap you need to take into consideration 4 possible outcomes at origional book of 103.1% , we used Betfair for convenience as they had that percent showing and there was market strength, the outcomes / odds / percent where:
 
Score               Odds                    %
 
1-0                     8,50                  11.8
2-1                     12.0                     8.3
3-2                     50.0                     2.0
4-3                    500.0                    0.2   
 
Total percent                              (22.3)
 
Any of the above outcomes would result in a win for handicap X , to find the correct odds we simply take 100 and divide by the total outcome percent (100¬22.3) = odds 4.5
 
To find the odds of the home team covering the handicap and winning by more than 1 goal is straightforward , Home team odds 2.70  converted into % 37.0 - 22.3 = 14.7%
Convert 14.7% into odds (100¬14.7) = 6.80
 
The same Bookmaker is offer DNB (Draw no bet) odds of :
 
                            Osasuna                         Villareal
 
Bet3000                1.80                                 1.90
 
Bet 3000 %          55.6                                 52.6    (108.2%)
 
What gives them the right to remove the draw, decrease possibilities to 2 and increase margin from 103.1% to  108.2%
 
The correct odds are very simple to work out,using 100 stake
 
The first thing we need to do is buy insurance (draw X) , odds are 3.30, to recover the 100 on this occurrence happening we need to place a bet of (100¬3.30) = 30.30 on the X
 
Our total available is 100 - 30.30 (placed) = 69.70 remaining
 
Home (Draw no bet) stake 69.70 odds 2,70 = 188.2  Bookmaker odds of 1.80 = 180 , you would win 80 instead of 88.2 (over 10% differance)
 
Away (draw no bet) stake 69.70 odds 2.80 = 195.2  Bookmaker odds pay 190 , real payout should be 195.2
 
In fact these odds should be better as its normal to reduce margins when possibilities decrease, in this instance from 3 possibles to 2
 
HT-FT market 
 
Only losers take such odds, stay away from so called specials!
 
Same Bookmaker odds 
 
    HT       FT                      Odds    %
    1          1                        4.25  (23.5)
 
    1          X                       13.0    (7.7)
 
    1           2                       27.0   (3.7)
 
    X          1                       5.25   (19.0)
 
    X          X                      4.35    (23.0)
 
    X          2                      5.25    (19.0)
 
    2          1                       26.0    (3.8)
 
    2          X                      13.0   ( 7.7)
 
    2          2                        4.5    (22.2)
 
  Total betting %                       (129.6)                          
If you use this method to bet the Half time result                                90 min. odds      
 
HOME  1-1 , 1-X , 1-2  (23.5 + 7.7 + 3.7 ) = 34.9% (100¬ 34.9)  = odds 2.87      3.4                       
DRAW  X-1 , X-X, X-2  ( 19+23+19 )  = 61%     (100¬61)             = odds 1.64      2.0
AWAY  2-1 , 2-X, 2-2  (3.8+7.7+22.2)= 33.7% (100¬33.7)           = odds 2.97     3.55 
                                                                                                                                        (107.6%)
 
This is poor bookmaking to say the least, odds of 2.0 are being taken down to 1.64, whilst its normal to increase margins, these are bordering on perverse!
 
HOME 1-1, X-1,2-1 ( 23.5+19+3.8)= 46.3%                                = odds   2.16        2.70
DRAW 1-X, X-X, 2-X  (7.7+23+7.7)  = 38.4%                              = odds    2.6          3.30
AWAY 1-2, X-2, 2-2  (3.7+19+22.2) = 44.9%                              = odds    2.23        2.80
 
 
Use these principals when trying to work out if there is value in the special bets market, it`s all about being disciplined!