Best Value Bets for Nottingham & Newton Abbot. Today we are heading to Nottingham and Newton Abbot, focusing strictly on markets where the bookmakers have priced up the wrong favourites. By identifying under-handicapped outsiders and fading inconsistent market leaders, we have found four clear value angles where the betting is in our favour. Let’s get straight into the selections and beat the layers.
Best Value Bets for Nottingham & Newton Abbot
NOTTINGHAM 16:18 – KASGANI 7/2
I don’t want to share all my secrets, but you can take it from me that I’ve made a lot of money over the years by laying fancied runners from the Michael Bell stable. With all due respect to the Newmarket-based trainer, his horses can be highly inconsistent. In this race, Bell saddles the favourite, A MAJOR PAYNE—a gelding who has finished second on seven occasions but is yet to win. While the 5-year-old has been running well and will be assisted by Oisin Murphy, I’m not at all convinced he’s a genuine 2/1 shot!
Despite riding him into a mess last time out, Zak Wheatley retains the ride on KASGANI. With a clear run that day, the lightly raced 4-year-old would have almost certainly won. The son of SEA THE STARS went up 3 pounds for finishing 3rd of 14 that day, but considering he should have won and will get the race run to suit again, he’s got to be the bet!
NEWTON ABBOT 14:30 – PREMIER FANTASY 9/4
YELLOW CARD is a better horse on the flat (rated 73) than he is over hurdles (rated 104). Nevertheless, he’s been found a good opportunity by his trainer, Mickey Bowen, and with the Champion Jockey booked, he should be heavily involved in the finish.
As for my idea of the winner, it’s got to be the six-time winning point-to-pointer PREMIER FANTASY. Since his last run, he has switched to the up-and-coming stable of Nick Scholfield, and he will be ridden by top jockey Gavin Sheehan. From what I’ve seen of him, he looks like the ideal type for hurdles, and these conditions will suit him perfectly!
NEWTON ABBOT 15:00 – DOC McCOY 11/8
DUNKERQUE is a perfect 2 for 2 over fences, suggesting that the ex-flat horse has the scope to do well in this sphere. However, the Jennie Candlish-trained 6-year-old carries a 7-pound automatic penalty today, and the fact is he’s carrying 3 pounds more than he is allowed in future handicaps. While his trainer is using William Shanahan to take off 5 pounds, the same tactical advantage applies to his main rival, DOC McCOY.
As for the Jamie Snowden-trained 8-year-old, he’s yet to win over fences and has unseated his rider on his last two starts. However, one of those was caused by clipping the heels of another runner, and from what we’ve watched, he actually jumps fences well enough. Isabelle Ryder’s mount receives 8 pounds from the early favourite, and the key fact is he is 10 pounds lower in this sphere compared to his hurdles rating. With everything considered, this is a big bet for me!
NEWTON ABBOT 15:30 – DARING PLAN 7/2
This race looks incredibly winnable, and it represents a massive chance for DARING PLAN to finally get off the mark. While the 8-year-old is yet to win in 17 attempts, he is now a staggering 34 pounds lower than his opening handicap mark. And here’s the best news of the lot: Tabitha Worsley is taking over the ride from the trainer’s daughter, Lucy Wadham. While I don’t want to pick on Lucy, let’s just say today’s jockey is much more competent.
I could put up a few other potential winners if the gelding doesn’t fire, but here’s the bottom line: if DARING PLAN runs to his best, he simply beats this lot.
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