HOW TO WIN AT IN-PLAY BETTING IN 2022

How to win at in-play Betting in 2022. If you are willing to do things right, in-play betting is easy.

Teaching people how to profit from gambling isn’t rocket science, and that also applies to in-play betting.

HOW TO WIN AT IN-PLAY BETTING IN 2022

HOW TO WIN AT IN-PLAY BETTING IN 2022

INTRODUCTION:

In a press release, Bet365 revealed that In-play betting accounted for 79 per cent of its 2019 Sports betting revenue. That consolidated its position as the most popular medium for sports betting. Despite reporting big profits, in-play betting is often targeted by professional gamblers.

For the record, most operators are vulnerable because they buy in odds from a third party service. While this might sound efficient, they become an easy target for professional gamblers.

Hopefully, this tutorial ”how to win in in-play betting in 2022” will give a better understanding.

HOW IN-PLAY ODDS ARE GENERATED

Most betting operators import in-play odds from companies such as Bet-Radar. In short, the operator gets to set the betting key (%), and the software does the rest.

On the other hand, bigger Sportsbooks with more resources create their own in-play-odds. In this scenario, Algorithmic Sports-modeling is used to generate an abundance of betting opportunities.

The obvious difference between pre-match and in-play odds is the process of controlling liabilities. With the first mentioned, it is normal to move the betting line in accordance with the weight of money being bet on each side. In comparison, in-play odds are supposed to reflect what’s happening in the game!

Compiling in-play odds is all about collecting data, and using it to form an opinion. Since no two systems are the same, it is fair to suggest that odds discrepancies occur.

ALGORITHMIC SPORTS MODELLING

ALGORITHMIC SPORTS MODELLINGHOW TO WIN AT IN-PLAY BETTING IN 2022

Back in the day, major bookmakers paid odds compilers to make betting lines, and independent operators copied.

Nowadays, most smaller operators subscribe to a service for pre-match odds. The process is simple and can be easily explained. In that;

Third-party services such as Bet Radar collects betting data from hundreds of bookmakers. The aggregate odds are taken and fed to clients. The operator then gets to choose what to do with the odds being fed.

For example, if the operator is a monopoly with no competition, the odds will be marked down. Whereas, those competing in a hot market will be more generous.

However, in-play betting is much more complex, and it wouldn’t be practical to generate them in the same way. Consequently, the odds wouldn’t settle long enough because there is a timer (3-7 secs) on in-play bets.

In this instance, odds are created through the data suppliers’ algorithmic sports modelling.

Both data suppliers and bookmakers use algorithmic sports modelling. In fact, so do betting syndicates, and they are usually more efficient.

Did you know? Major sports teams work with data specialists. Remember the film Moneyball (2011) when Brad Pitt plays a baseball coach who will go on a record-breaking winning streak. Pitt uses data-driven analysis to recruit new players.

A real-life example, two of the best-known betting syndicates use data for football teams they own. Namely, Tony Bloom (Starlizard), and Matthew Benham (Smart Odds). Based on this work, Bloom took Brighton to the Premier League, and Royale Union (Belgium) from a nothing to top league challenger. Benham did the same with Brentford and Danish club Midtjylland!

If you are clever enough – Sports modelling is the answer!

COMPARING LEISURE & ASIAN ODDS BOOKMAKERS

Asian bookmakers take bets from everyone, and they accept winning clients. Moreover, Asian accounts can be opened through agents, thus protecting the identity of the account holder.

On the other hand, leisure facing bookmakers want to know everything about the client. They require a positive ID, proof of address, and in many cases a copy of a bank statement.

Incidentally, if you start winning, Leisure bookmakers restrict winning accounts!

Pre-match odds with Asian bookmakers are dynamic lines. Hence, odds move up & down according to the weight of money being bet on each side. The stock exchange works in a similar way, in that supply & demand dictate the price of shares.

However, the logistics of In-play betting make dynamic lines impossible. There is simply no time to run a book, thus the pressure is getting the lines right!

HOW TO FIND VALUEHOW TO WIN AT IN-PLAY BETTING IN 2022

Take it from us, the most accurate in-play odds come from Pinnacle.

We want to show a quick method for spotting value. Here was the odds being offered by 4 leisure bookmaker after 20 minutes:

  • WHILL: 3.40 – 2.50 – 2.75 = 105.77% (94.54%)
  • LADBROKES: 3.60 – 2.55 – 2.55 = 106.22% ( 94.14%)
  • BET365: 3.90 – 2.50 – 2.45 = 106.45 % ( 93.94%)
  • UNIBET: 3.5 – 2.55 – 2.60 = 106.15% (94.21%)

Best combined odds 3.90 (Bet365) – 2.55 (Ladbrokes) – 2.75 (Whill) = 101.22% (98.79% payout)

At the same time, Pinnacle offered 4.00 – 2.60 – 2.50 = 103.46 (96.66%)

When we remove the Pinnacle juice, the 100% book odds are 4.14 – 2.69 – 2.59. Now, the object of the game is to beat those odds with soft books:

Home 3.90 (Pinnacle adjusted 4.14) = no value

Draw 2.55 (Pinnacle adjusted 2.69) = no value

Away 2.75 (Pinnacle adjusted 2.59) = +16 pips

In this case, the only bet worth considering is AWAY at 2.75 with WH.

PS – For your benefit, we made a two way removed juice Pinnacle chart – here

IN-PLAY BETTINGNEVER OVERSTRETCH YOURSELF

Bookmakers make in-play odds for hundreds of matches daily. Whereas, the punter can pick and choose.

Depending on the resources at hand, keep the numbers reasonable. With football, a typical weekend could be:

  • Chinese league – start 9:30
  • England/Spanish lunchtime games – Start 13:00 +13:30
  • German Bundesliga 15:30
  • English Premier/Championship 16:00
  • Belgium 18:00 + 20:00
  • Dutch 18:30 + 20.45
  • Switzerland 19:00 
  • France 20:30 
  • Italy 20:30
  • Brazil 21:00

STOP PRESS – Pay particular attention to US Sport – The operators are all over the place, and easy to exploit.

METHODOLOGY – HOW TO WIN AT IN-PLAY BETTING in 2022

If you plan on using Pinnacle to guide, the only methodology needed is to find expected value odds.

However, if you believe your strength is reading a match and understanding the odds, figure out your best approach. For those interested, this is standard:

  • Before kick-off – Gather information on the variables. For example, which bookies cover the match (log in). Any team news. Weather conditions. Adjust pre-match expectancies accordingly.
  • Kick-off – Odds often revert to those available earlier in the day. This could be a good time to get on if you missed odds earlier.
  • Watching period – Take a 15 minute observation period. Pay particular attention to body language, and how the game is flowing. Make any adjustments necessary.
  • Show-time – Good time to bet is between the 15th and 30th minute. Mostly, bookmakers are still aligned with their initial reading of the game.
  • Second-half – Depending on your reading of the game, edging becomes a possibility.
  • Suggestion. – Do not spread yourself thin. Depending on experience and your set-up, stick with the number of games you can control.

BAD TACTIC – DON’T LISTEN

Do not follow those who recommend betting the draw before a game and laying it off as the clock goes down. While decaying odds sounds like a good idea, they don’t incorporate expectancy at a proper rate.

Take the 100% book below for an example of what we mean, no goals scored:

  • 2.87 3.30 2.87 (pre-match odds)
  • 3.00 3.00 3.00 (20.00 minutes)
  • 3.17 2.70 3.17 (30.00 minutes)

HUNTER GAMES EXPLAINED – THE IN-PLAY TACTIC

Monitor bookmakers for value odds and arbitrage opportunities. When you have time on your hands, taking advantage of any discrepancies is a good tactic. For example:

  • Value-betting; It’s a simple numbers game, and long-term profits are assured. Simply put the numbers in your favour!
  • Arbitrage; We are not the biggest fans of arbitrage because we don’t like giving value back. Nevertheless, for the less risk-averse it’s easy money.

For arbitrage, bear in mind there is no guarantee both sides of the bet will be accepted. However, by taking the outstanding odds first, you will lower the chance of that occurrence. For example, if one bookmaker offers 2.10 on player A, and seven bookmakers offer odds 2.00 on player B – Take player A first because you have more options on the other side!

PRE-PLANNING BETTING EXPLAINEDHOW TO WIN AT IN-PLAY BETTING IN 2022

If you fancy yourself as a sharp bettor, make a plan! Creating a cheat sheet for quick reference could pay dividends. Think it through, and do your homework. Here are a few basics on football betting that you might want to consider: 

  • Expectancy; Pre-match thoughts on what to expect during the game. Adjust when the match goes in-play and bet according to value.
  • Body language; In head-to-head sports, effectively reading body language is vital. With team sport, the coach could make changes! Did you know many betting syndicates employ psychologists?
  • Player ratings; Expected performance, and what is happening on the field are factors. Make adjustments in-play. 
  • Conditions; Weather conditions can change during a game. Watch for advantages such as wind (behind) or Sun (in the opponent’s face). 
  • Influence of the crowd; The fans are often called the twelfth man. While some stadiums are worse than others, watch for how players and match officials react.
  • Match officials; Use the early part of the game to calculate any bias. Keep up-to-date with the number of bookings or verbal last warnings!
  • Injuries; Not just player changes because they are limited. Watch for players who are struggling on the field. Which players are warming up and likely to come on, and how could they impact a game.
  • Player match-ups; You should soon be able to see if one player is out-performing a direct opponent. Being able to spot this early will give a betting advantage. 
  • The number of chances; Possession is one thing, but the number of opportunities is more important. What you are trying to figure out is XG (expected goals).
  • Possession; Football is not rugby. Quality is more important than a high percentage of ball possession. Heat maps and understanding movement will help in factoring chance.
  • Ball action; The further a team gets up the field, the harder it becomes to keep possession. Suffice to say, 60% in your half is nothing special. Consider the position of the ball. Using heat maps are the way to go!
  • Fatigue; Some teams are better at lasting 90 minutes than others, know your teams and what to expect!
  • Odds/Line – Being opinionated is useful for this form of betting. Being open-minded and judging at face value is important!
Advantages

UNDERSTAND YOUR ADVANTAGES

You are reading this because you want to improve your knowledge. While the teacher knows more than the pupil, that doesn’t mean we have all the advantages. Here are the advantages/disadvantages that you might consider;

Our advantage;

  • Experience; we have been beating the bookmakers for a very long time!
  • Proven long term winners; confidence in knowing we continually beat the system!
  • Big betting bank; Having financial freedom takes the pressure off.
  • Resources and tools; Investing in the right tools & resources makes it easier.
  • Bookmaking and maths background; Odds to us are like a burger to a McDonald’s flipper.
  • Team; In-house support, network, consultants, and investment in our people!
  • Sports modelling software; We have invested heavily in technology, and we won’t be stopping.

You ?;

  • Betting account options; If you are not known, you have all the easy options available.
  • Bet on the high street; We use runners to place our racing bets. Placing bets yourself equals 100% of the profit is yours.
  • Betting with lower stakes; Makes betting on lower liquidity markets more accessible. Bookmakers are more likely to accept lower stakes, and account longevity is better.
  • Losers become winners; If you are known as a loser, becoming a winner is less of a challenge.
  • Betting on any sport/league; More betting opportunities equals better ROI.
  • Lower cost to acquire information; We pay for everything, you won’t have the same high costs!
  • Only yourself to feed; Sharing 10k with yourself is better than sharing 100k with 20 others!

UNDERSTAND IN-PLAY

  • If you don’t understand the concept of value betting, stay away.
  • If betting in-play, make sure you have quick TV pictures (check the times)
  • Consider bookmaker delay accepting bets (3-7 seconds).
  • Stay within reasonable betting limits – don’t ask for more because referral takes time.
  • Don’t have preconceived ideas. Allow the game to speak with you!
  • No discipline – in-play betting can be very addictive to the wrong people.
  • Successful betting on lower Leagues or props will get accounts limited quickly. 
  • Bet with Asian bookmakers if you are good enough – limits are higher and less restrictions!
  • Don’t take money from winning accounts until they are limited.
  • Stay within your means – don’t expose your betting bank on one game!

We hope this tutorial How to win in in-play Betting in 2022 is beneficial. For more, keep it here and join our Youtube Channel. We offer 1-2-1 coaching (fee based) to the right people.