DAY 3 ASCOT BETTING PREVIEW & THREE TOP PICKS
With regards to the selections we’ve posted so far this week, we are certainly due a bit of luck at the Royal meeting. Oisin Murphy’s ride on FRIENDLY SOUL yesterday was an absolute head-shaker; keeping a horse with that much engine stuck behind a wall of horses and trying to challenge up the inside after turning in last was completely agonizing. One thing is certain: the John & Thady Gosden-trained colt has retained every ounce of his high-class ability. Once he finds a clear passage, he is absolutely certain to win a big one sooner rather than later.
We move on to Thursday’s card with three premium value angles where the layers have left the door wide open.
DAY 3 ASCOT BETTING PREVIEW & THREE TOP PICKS
15:05 Royal Ascot – HEYZOOM
INTO THE LIGHT was hit with a 5-pound rise in the weights for finishing a solid second at Sandown last time out. While that was a highly encouraging effort for a lightly raced colt, he will need to take another significant step forward to land a competitive handicap like this.
Initially, I was going to suggest that GOLDEN KNIGHT wouldn’t surprise me by running a better race than his early odds implied. However, the market has caught on and he is now trading down around 12/1, effectively turning what was an excellent value proposition into a disappointment.
ARC OLE OLE is going from strength to strength with every start, and his current odds of around 20/1 are perfectly fair. Despite taking a fiercely strong hold and pulling hard early on in his recent outing at Newbury, TIERRA DEL TORO stayed on tenaciously to finish a highly credible third. The way he hit the line that day strongly suggests that stepping back up in distance will suit him down to the ground.
The exact same comment applies to the sixth-place finisher in that same Newbury contest, namely AL AYD. His jockey that day, Ray Dawson, sat far too far off the pace in what turned out to be a highly tactical affair; it’s no surprise whatsoever to see him replaced by Cieren Fallon today. One thing is certain: returning to a proper 12-furlong trip will suit him down to the ground, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him reverse form and finish ahead of TIERRA DEL TORO.
With all that said, HEYZOOM is exceptionally highly regarded by his trainer, and I am fully expecting this slightly immature son of Dubawi to improve significantly for the experience. Saffie Osborne’s mount is beautifully drawn in stall 7, and he gets into this highly competitive race carrying a very workable weight. With the Owen Burrows stable starting to hit top form just at the right time, he is the one to be on.
15:40 Royal Ascot – LEGACY LINK 13/8
We have some highly exciting, unexposed types going to post for this year’s renewal of the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes. With that said, I firmly believe this race is going to be fought out strictly between those sitting right at the head of the market.
One of the main market principals, JOHANNA WALSH, represents Joseph Patrick O’Brien, who boasts an impressive strike rate with 3 winners from his 14 Ascot runners to date. However, I’ve taken a deep look at the form of this daughter of Sea The Stars, and I simply cannot see her being quite sharp enough for a Group 2 assignment of this exact nature.
Since the Aidan O’Brien yard has been collecting prizes all week, it’s no surprise to see plenty of early money coming in for COMPOSING. While runners from Ballydoyle are famously capable of taking a massive leap forward on the big stage, it’s hard to imagine her delivering the required standard today.
EARTH SHOT certainly possesses plenty of untapped potential, while the smart French raider GILDED PRIZE should thoroughly appreciate the drying, faster ground. With all that considered, I’m not looking any further than LEGACY LINK. Colin Keane has explicitly chosen to ride this Dubawi filly in favour of the Graffard runner, and I can completely understand his logic. The Gosden-trained filly is visibly improving with each race, and her official rating of 111 puts her comfortably ahead of this field on form. The faster ground and a more orthodox track are massive positives for her running style.
16:15 Royal Ascot – RAHIEBB 13/2
AL RIFAA is as honest as the day is long. The Joseph O’Brien-trained 6-year-old is highly flexible with regards to both distance and ground conditions, and his baseline rating suggests he holds a clear, leading chance on form.
TRAWLERMAN absolutely bolted up to win this contest by a wide margin last season, and he duly followed that up by scoring in his next two outings. However, I am a little worried about him making his seasonal debut on the biggest stage of all today, and that question mark alone is enough to make me look elsewhere for the winner.
CABALLO DE MAR won over this trip at Longchamp and returned to that exact track for a recent, highly clinical victory over two miles. Staying the distance clearly isn’t going to be an issue for him, and George Scott is precisely the type of trainer who excels at extracting further improvement from his inmates. The 5-year-old is bound to run a massive race; it’s just that I have my eyes firmly fixed on another one.
SCANDINAVIA has remarkably won his last five races, albeit he had to be ridden completely all out to justify restrictive odds of 2/9 last time out. While the 4-year-old will handle today’s fast conditions and is guaranteed to stay this extreme trip, I want to take him and the other market leaders on with RAHIEBB.
In last year’s St Leger, this lightly raced 4-year-old was only beaten a neck by Scandinavia after a thrilling duel. On his recent return from a winter break, the Roger Varian-trained son of Frankel made absolute light work of landing the Yorkshire Cup. While he is technically unproven and not strictly bred for this grueling, extreme marathon distance, all of the visuals and his closing sectionals suggest he is an out-and-out stayer who has significantly more improvement to come.
