I’m down to two in this race, and they are NOW WE KNOW and VEDELA DREAM. Putting first time cheekpieces on the latter suggest she was looking around when finishing 4th on her debut. Her mark for that race would be 32.5, and receiving 1.5KG from the males tells us she should be thereabouts. However, NOW WE KNOW ran to 36.5 in his last race, a 3kg improvement from his debut. Truillier takes off 2.5kg, so he’s certainly got a bit in hand!
We are now getting a better vision of what to expect from the ‘’no crowd’’ situation in the Bundesliga, and the first word which comes to mind is inconsistency. With that said, we have seen 10 away wins from the 18 games to date, that compares to just three at home and five draws! Team news: Werder: Füllkrug (torn ACL), Möhwald (knee), Pizarro (thigh), Toprak (calf) all out while Vogt (hip) is a doubt. Borussia: Embolo (ankle), Strobl (hamstring), Zakaria (knee) all out, Johnson (muscular) doubtful In the last round the difference between Borussia Monchengladbach and Bayer Leverkuesen was Kai Hevertz. One of the goals was from the penalty spot, the other Yann Sommer let go under him. Other than that it was a really balanced match, and has is often the case in the Bundesliga score lines where wrong! Leonardo Bittencourt gave Werder Bremen some hope of surviving the season when he scored from outside the box to give Werder a 0-1 win over Freiburg. However, the hosts had a late goal ruled out for offside and on any other given day the result would have been different! Werder have tank just 21 points this season, and only five of them where at home. It will be a shock to us if Borussia can’t return to winning ways this evening!
This is just a moderate handicap, and Jane Soubagne has added the magic formula to THE FUNK BIBLE. We believe this fella would have won last time if his then jockey had waited a bit longer, so great to have the champion (Boudot) on board. The winner of that race went up 3.5kg, and he was only just touched off. I won’t be looking further!!
PREMIUM PICK - We’ve been killing them with French and German races, the show continues with 6 bets today. Here is one for free users! ———LA POUTANESCA has the best last time out form, but it was over further and on dirt. While David Smaga’s runner is still fairly treated, i’m expecting her to get tapped for speed. I AM CHARLIE has the right man on board, and she’s got the form to be involved. However, she’s more exposed than most of this field, and that applies to our selection GRACE BERE. The lightly 4 year old won 2 of her 5 races, and last time out she was given too much to do in a h’cap. The extra 100M should help her cause, and jockey Alexis Badel suits these hold up types. While switching to turf is an unknown, chances are she will be just has good on this surface!
Very poor quality race, and a big chance has to be given to MAMOURETTA. If she runs like she did in a decent h’cap last week, she should get the measure of WALDANA and DANKA
Berlin derby! Hertha - Kalou (not selected), Karim Rekik (knee), Marius Wolf (ankle - doubtful) Union - Sheraldo Becker (thigh), Akaki Gogia (match fitness), Kevin Schlotterbeck (suspended) The last five meetings between these two clubs give Union (2-2-1) the slight upper hand. The visitors scored a late penalty to win the reverse match and rightly so! In last weeks round the difference between Hertha Berlin and Hoffenheim was the then visitors converted chances. While Hoffenheim had 21 goal attempts, the team coached by Bruno Labbadia needed just twelve. Five of those where on target, and three found the back of the net. Those three points Hertha took from that win made it a new total of 31, that’s one more than todays city rival Union Berlin! Since these two teams last met Hertha have changed two managers, and last weeks 3-0 win was Labbadia’s first in charge. What we can tell you about that match is it had a really good flow, and the scoreline was badly exaggerated. Nevertheless, wins bring confidence, and those points took some of the pressure away. Union lost 0-2 to the mighty Bayern, and prior to that was a 3-1 defeat in Freiburg. To be fair to the visitors, they haven’t had the rub of the green. And, while last weeks matchh against Bayern showed a lack of imagination, they set-up for damage limitation. The best way to bet this game is over 2.5 goals. Union will need commit more bodies forward and with that in mind chances should be plentiful!!
GAMALINE didn’t progress in here 2nd and 3rd races last season, but she did win her debut in good style. Getting the fillies allowance is one thing, and the other is knowing she comes from a stable in form. However, the most compelling argument is she’s changing codes to fences following just three runs, that’s a good sign!
Henri Pantall could do with a winner, and who better to supply one than P.-C. Boudet. I’m trying to figure out why the h’capper dropped ARUM a kilo for his last run, because he was the only one who gave LA ROSELAIRE a run for his money. The 4 year old has a great record fresh, and her best form is on this type of ground. She’s a CD winner, and some of her efforts last year where simply unfortunate. Most of this field appear exposed, so granted luck in running we should have the right one!
So far this season Hammer-Hanson’s runners are coming up short, that is enough to put us off TRUST AHEAD. BRAVEHEART was caught out by his big weight last week, that won’t be the case here. The 4 year old has improved race to race and that was a strong comeback. Suffice to say, having a race under the belt and returning to a track where he’s 2/2 is helpful!
MOISES HAS was 9L in front of FOR FUN when they last met over 3600M here, suffice to say the grey has his measure. GANT DE VELOURS will find this tougher, and it’s WANT A NALL for us. The filly is giving a kilo away to the males, but she’s a class act with a lot more to come. In fact, she won her last race which was a chase, and that was despite making several mistakes. Back over hurdles and with Felix De Giles reunited she looks a good thing!
PREMIUM PICK - Prior to the enforced break Monchengladbach played a game behind closed doors, and the result was a 2-1 win over Köln. We can’t say Borussia dominated that match, and maybe they where guilty for sitting deep at 2-0. All the same, the team coached by Marco Rose got the job done, so it was another three points in the bag. The visitors definitely have one of the brightest young squads in the Bundesliga, and they are just 3 places and 6 points off leaders Bayern. We should also add they have a close to clean squad, and the majority of players know they will be with the club next season! Playing behind closed doors could also take a bit of pressure from the Gladbach strikers, and on that note they have plenty of talent to get the job don! Eintracht where expected to be fighting for the European places, instead they are just 6 points above the relegation zone. More worrying for the visitors is a lack of consistency, and what about that most recent 0-3 defeat by Basel (Europa league). On that occasion they where favourites to progress by the Swiss team, but instead they wilted in an empty stadium! While we trust Gladbach, it’s probably prudent to take the draw no bet!
SEDUCTION must have a chance, but jockey bookings surprise me a bit. I should also say she’s not the odds those useless UK bookies are suggesting, she should be double them! KATY LOVE is another worth a mention, but one i like a lot is ZIALIGHT. I thought her jockey buggered it up last time, so hopefully he would have learnt from that. The other positive is she doesn’t get any extra weight for that 2nd place, that also helps the cause!