PREMIUM TIP ——— The only thing left to play for is third and fourth place. The team with the higher position gets to start Europa league later, whereas the fourth comes in early to play qualification. Antwerp are currently occupying fourth place, they lost in the last round to Gent. The other team is St Liege, today they travel to confirmed champions Genk! In the last round the Smurfs could only draw in Anderlecht, but with Club Brugge losing that was enough to claim the trophy. One thing is certain, it’s been a long hard season for Philippe Clement’s side. suffice to say, they will surely be relieved to play this without the added pressure of needing points. Ot’s probably fair to guess that players carrying slight knocks will sit this one out. With that in mind, expect some changes for this match against Les Rouges. We where a little surprised that St Liege could win against Club Brugge the other night, because they had hit a bad patch with four successive defeats going into that game. For the record, one of those losses was at home to todays opponent Genk (1-3), and in February they also lost a normal season fixture in this stadium! We should at least commend Michel Preud’homme’s players for beating Club Brugge, because they played 60 minutes of that match againstwith a player less. That alone suggests they are really up for this challenge, and it’s not has though Genk ended the campaign strongly. Furthermore, the hosts could think they owe St Liege, because it’s that last round win which guaranteed the championship!
PREMIUM RACING PICK ———— Want them all, join Premium for just €150 per month. Big profits, easy to get odds, daily service, get started firstname.lastname@example.org ———— It’s probably fair to say THE SWEENEY never reached his true potential. Furthermore, he races like he’s a bit soft. Now that he’s h’capped, BLACK KALANISI could improve. However, we prefer Alan King’s charge WILLIAM H BONNY. This scopey 8 year old comes from an in form stable, and he’s only one pound higher than his last winning mark. While it’s true to say he never wins by big margins, 5 victories from 20 races tell us he’s got the right attitude. Trip should suit, and everything is in place for a big run.
PREMIUM PICK - Two tournaments this week, and we are going all in. Because it’s sunday we are giving two for free, but don’t expect that all week. If you want the big stuff, join PREMIUM for a special price of just €400 to end of November - email@example.com ———— It really is time for Rebecca Peterson to smell the coffee, because she’s been getting a bit lazy. One thing is certain, the 23 year old Swede is much better than recent results suggest. This statement particularly applies to playing on clay. According to stats this isn’t Peterson’s best surface, but we actually believe it is. At this stage last year Rebecca won a tournament in Cagnes, and to do that she beat quality players Jabeur and Yastremska. It’s worth noting all wins where straight sets, thus suggesting she was well on top! A year earlier Peterson won another tournament on clay, and she’s a reasonable 61.8% on this surface. Better than that, 26/11 over the past three seasons! supports our clay theory. Season wins against Golubic and Hercog tell us she should be too good for Magda Linette. The Polish girl is not in the best form!
FREE PICK - This match is on our ‘’in-play list. Here is what we believe will be the outcome! These odds are based on team expectancy rather than what we have seen. It’s probably fair to suggest Dalian Yifang have a better group of players on paper, but just one win from 9 games tell us it’s not happening on the field. In fact, we dissected their last round loss against Wuhan Zall, and what we witnessed was a group of strikers who where shooting from distance. Shenzhen are newly promoted, so first season at an higher level won’t be easy. With that said, they found two excellent foreigners in Harold Preciado and Ole Salneas, and given a bit of support these players will continue scoring! To make a long story short, it’s the odds!
Part of the frustration that we deal with betting on sports has to do with lack of control. Once we make our bets, it's largely up to the players (and coaches) on the teams we bet on to make good on our prediction. Such is the frustration in this series as we've backed the Raptors on both occasions and come away with two losses (1 surely undeserved). The glaring issue for us has been head coach Nick Nurse's insistence on playing Marc Gasol despite the big man's struggles and his little relative value in this matchup. While Gasol's stellar defense on Joel Embiid was necessary against the Sixers, he has no value against the Bucks as he can not guard out on the perimeter and if his shots aren't falling as they haven't been, he is effectively of no use save for a few rebounds. Now it's unfair to put Game 2 solely on Gasol as the Raptors lost in rather lopsided fashion 125-103 but his presence in the starting lineup frequently puts the team in a hole of which they're unable to climb out. It's no secret the Raptors need to go smaller here with the quicker Serge Ibaka and play the style and pace best suited against the high flying Bucks! Nurse should already have made this change prior to Game 2 to give us a chance but it does appear based on recent comments that a lineup change is in store for Game 3. As badly as the Raptors struggled in Game 2, we would still contend the difference in class isn't as vast as it would appear. After all, the Raptors certainly should have won Game 1 and with the necessary changes and playing on their home court, we believe the hosts should get a game back and hopefully turn this into a series. It's hard to criticize the Bucks too much given they are up 2-0 but we believe their success is highly dependent on one player in Giannis Antetokounmpo which is in turn highly dependent on how he is officiated. We expect some more favourable calls for the hosts tonight and the Bucks' role players have been playing far above expectations as well and they should regress negatively on the road in our opinion. Hosts to pull one back!
PREMIUM TIP - Madison Brengle has been warming up nicely on the ITF circuit In fact, the 29 year old recently made the final of a W80 in Charlottesville, and in 2018 she easily beat Lepchenko in the first round of this tournament. We could also add the American was 16/4 in 2016, and she’s beaten several top players on tour (including Serena) Brengle’s game can be described has messy, because she’s a strong counter puncher who relies on wearing down opponents. We would also add, she’s one of the fastest and toughest girls on tour when things are right! Evgeniya Rodina is a hard working mother, but she’s not the most talented of players. With all due respect, if Brengle is on her game the Russian is going to get her ass kicked!
PREMIUM BETTING TIP ————— This is Italy Serie A, teams who have nothing to play for don’t make much of an effort. As it stands, their is one relegation place open and it concerns four teams. Genoa are just one point above Empoli, plus one point behind Udinese and two behind Parma. Suffice to say, the hosts need to win! While the Griffin’s haven’t won in eight, they have been making a big effort. A 1-1 at home to AS Roma was a solid result, and taking a draw in Spal was acceptable. Even last weeks 2-1 defeat in Atalanta was a respectful effort. so now it’s time for a win. Interestingly, the last game they won at home was against champions Juventus, a similar performance would be great! Cagliari went on a good run and secured league status. More recently the Islanders have returned to losing, and it’s with noting they are the third worst travellers. In fact, Rolando Maran’s team have taken three times more points at home (30-10) compared to playing away! Knowing the Italians like we do, an home win looks safe!
PREMIUM PICK - The show goes on! ---------- A look at ten year stats show home teams win at an higher ratio on the final two rounds of the season. That is also the situation when a match is a dead rubber, bare that in mind. After dropping points to Montpellier in the last round, it’s clear St Etienne need maximum points from todays game with Nice. Afterall, that team is now within striking distance, next seasons Europa league ticket depends on staying fourth. Prior to that defeat the hosts had won six and drew one from their last seven games, so it was somewhat of a surprise when Les Verts failed in there latest game. Jean Louis-Gasset does have key players missing, and amongst them is suspended Remy Cabella. Nevertheless, the hosts have a deep squad and plenty of quality waiting to fill in! Nice are a decent seventh in the table, but we can’t imagine them being highly motivated today. Furthermore, the visitors have two key defenders suspended, and another handful of injuries. Patrick Viera’s side look particularly vulnerable at the back, and we expect them to be exposed! This is an Asian h’cap bet, if St Etienne win by exactly one bets are void and stakes returned. The rest is logical, and if it’s not you shouldn’t be betting!
PREMIUM WTA PICK ——— Karolina Pliskova has been in this position many times before. The former number one is usually reliable at the right level, and her 25/7 YTD suggests she’s in good health. Negatives about the 27 year old include her record on clay (56.3% vs 64.4% average), and she was beaten by Maria Sakkari at this tournament last year. That was the only meeting between the pair, and if anything the Greek girl has improved plenty since. Sakkari has already won a clay tournament this year, and she comes into this in the form of her life. While the 23 year old lacked consistency in the past, she’s clearly more confident coming into this semi final. From what we have witnessed this week, Sakkari is the player to go with here!
PREMIUM TIP - Have a second one on us ————Ian Williams WAR BRIGADE was an improver over hurdles, and according to his mark in that sphere he’s well in here. The five year old will have the assistance of a 5 pound claimer, so the only slight concern is the faster ground. Most of the others are fully exposed, and nothing jumps out has being particularly well h’capped!
PREMIUM RACING PICK ————— Winning point to pointer RATFACEMCDOUGALL knows how to win, and he should do even better over fences. Stepping back up in trip won’t be a problem, and a mark of 120 for his chasing debut looks fair enough. We only see one danger, and that’s Alan King’s STOCKBURN. The six year old should benefit from his chase debut, but he will need to jump better over these stiff fences!
Game 2 had about the worst possible result for us as we tipped the moneyline over the spread and while the Blazers looked to be in firm control with a 17 point lead at one point, they would end up just covering the number in a 114-111 loss. Nothing about the game surprised us as we expected the Blazers to come out with better effort and find open shooters better against the Warriors defense. Despite a 3rd quarter onslaught from the Warriors, the Blazers still had an 8 point lead with a few minutes left and really should have closed it out. Nevertheless, the series shifts to Portland with the defending champions up 2-0 but the hosts enjoy one of the strongest home court advantages in the league and as long as their pick and roll is run smoothly as in Game 2, they should find themselves with a lead late that likely won't be relinquished at home.