Ohio St has been in terrific form winning 8 in a row and 13 of their last 14. However, we believe they've overachieved a bit and a key player Keita Bates-Diop is currently questionable with an illness for tonight. Even were he to suit up, we believe he will likely be less than 100% and this Penn St team is one of their best teams in quite some time despite struggling in conference play. As the Lions are underdogs, we believe they won't be feel too much pressure and will make this a competitive game.
Delaware has struggled the last 2 games losing 63-90 and 64-76 but they get a bit more favorable match up against a Charleston team that prefers to play at a very slow pace much like the Blue Hens. The Cougars are 5-3 in conference play but haven't been particularly convincing of late, barely getting by a very poor UNC-Wilmington team and getting a completely undeserved win and cover against Hofstra. They should get Delaware's best here!
In the first round Nicole Gibbs came from a set down to beat Julia Boserup, and on a point of note she won the third set by a one-sided 6-0. We are actually finding it hard to put in words how that match played out has Boserup seemed to suffer a bout of stage fright. In concluding, we will simply say Gibbs is playing below her best and this is likely to be tougher. Anna Schmiedlova lost the first set to Francesca Schiavove, but she had no problems winning the second and third by an easy 6-2 6-1. If we had one critic about that match it would be directed at the serve of Schmiedlova (broken 5 times), something she will need to clean up here. Nevertheless, it was nice to see the 23 year old Slovakian hitting the ball well, and it should at least give confidence going forwards. We like these odds!
The difference between our paid picks and these free bets is value. Some of these are too short to make them a big bet, and that applies to this fella. With that said, NIGHT OF GLORY would have killed this lot on the flat, and his first effort over hurdles was in better company than this. Add to that, he’s lightly raced and comes from a stable who do well with limited runners in national hunt. FALCON SUN doesn’t come from the flat, and he certainly improved from race one to two. Nevertheless, the well bred selection should handle the ground and that could be enough!
It’s difficult to see beyond the two at the head of the market. Afterall, VENGEUR DE GUYE has a big weight and is more prone to finishing second, while TRUST THOMAS hasn’t run well enough in his last two races and his regular jockey chose to ride UNE VALOROSO. The latter beat WHITSUNDAYS at Bangor a couple of races back, but the McCain runner has a 3 pound pull for two lengths. That suggests it should be close, but we believe WHITSUNDAYS will run out a comfortable winner. We say that because his opponent has been poor on his last four visits here, while WHITSUNDAYS ran his best race at this track.
HELEN SHERBET won well over seven furlongs here 16 days back, but that doesn’t convince us she needs this mile. COULDN’T COULD SHE will find this considerably harder from an 11 pound higher mark. MR CARBONATOR only scrambled home at Wolves, so a 5 pound rise looks tough. SHARP REMINDER has interesting now that she’s racing at Southwell. James Tate’s filly simply looks like she will be best suited by this surface, and if that’s the case she’s well treated!
Don’t think you should be betting anything at 2/1 in these ‘’dash for the cash’’ races at Southwell. SOMETHING LUCKY might be 2 pounds good in the h’cap, but that means little in sprints. In a fine game of margins i’m expecting seven times course winner CROSS FIRE to get one on the board. Scott Dixon has his team in cracking form and being drawn in the middle gives Kieran O’Neill all the options.
In a battle of two dregs of the CAA, we have 6-14 UNC-Wilmington hosting 6-15 James Madison. At 3-5 and 2-6 respectively, the Seahawks and Dukes occupy the 8th and 9th position in the CAA with only Drexel below them. The Dukes have been doing better of late, picking up their 2 wins in their last 2 games against Elon and Drexel though the Seahawks just picked up an upset win over Towson as well, winning 73-71 in overtime. The Seahawks have also covered in 4 straight but I can't accept them as favorites here given how poorly they defend. There's one player of note to watch for the Dukes and it's again Joey McLean as he is questionable for tonight but James Madison has played well without him and have generally done well on the road, even suffering hard luck overtime losses to William & Mary and Hofstra. I think they have good chance to win outright.
Quinnipiac has been a bit of a surprise as they sit at 4-4 in conference play and are coming off a 76-69 win over Siena on Sunday. Marist enters this game at 2-5 against MAAC opponents but the Red Foxes have performed above expectations as they are 5-2 ATS and gave Rider a scare on Saturday as 16.5 pt underdogs, losing by just 3. The Red Foxes have had some interesting games this year, even nearly pulling off a complete shocker against West Virginia early in the season. Despite being one of the poorest teams in the country, Marist has rarely thrown in the towel and we feel they will catch a Bobcats team at the right time coming off a hard fought win against Siena.
Siena is a dismal 6-15 on the season and just 2-6 in conference play although on the bright side, the Saints have been relatively competitive in every conference game and one of their wins came against MAAC leaders Canisius. It's been equally disappointing for Monmouth as last year's MAAC regular season champs enter this game at 5-13 with just 1 win in conference play. Monmouth G Micah Seaborn made his return against Iona and he looks to be healthy enough to start again but we are still having a hard time with a spread this large between two teams we see more or less on equal footing. The Saints have lost by 9 or more just once in MAAC play and the Hawks have won by 9 or more just once as well. We'll take the head start with the visitors!
2 teams moving in opposite directions as Indiana visits Illinois in a matchup of Big 10 teams. The Hoosiers sit at 5-3 in conference play and are coming off a 71-68 win over Maryland on Monday. Illinois is still searching for their 1st win in the Big 10 as they sit at 0-8 in conference play. Nevertheless, the Hoosiers haven't been too impressive on the road and the Illini bring an aggressive defense that defends the perimeter well. On the other side, the Hoosiers are absolutely atrocious defending the long ball and this is exactly the type of situation where the hosts get their shooting going. The Illini will be desperate for a win and it is very much achievable against a bit of a fraudulent Hoosiers team!
Nevada has reeled off 7 wins in a row and 10 of their last 11 and returned to the Top 25 for the 2nd time this season. Leading the Mountain West, the Wolfpack visit Wyoming to face a Cowboys team coming off an 85-77 road win over Utah St on Saturday. The first meeting went in the Wolfpack's favor 92-83 but the game was close much of the way and the lead was only extended late on free throws. The Cowboys match up quite well here and will look to push the pace again which generally produces good results at elevation.