The betting public are going to be tempted with ESCAPABILITY. Afterall, he comes out top on ratings, and he did seem to run well in a recent flat race. STOP PRESS - 0/18 record. Beaten favourite 4 times, including at 1/2 and over hurdles at 6/5. With regards to that latter race, he travelled like the winner but didn’t find. Despite winning last time out over jumps, DIODORUS is one I treat with caution. Afterall, he comes 2nd more than he wins, and carrying a 7 pound penalty won’t help his cause. Should be more to come from French Import FLEUR DU SEUIL. She has joined the right trainer and receives a useful 7 pound sex allowance. It’s always going to be a punt betting against runners with decent marks, but both look beatable and weights will help!
I’m telling you, bankruptcy awaits those who follow JJ O´Neill runners. While the former top jockey gets a lot of talent go through his hands, I personally can’t see any positives in the way his charges fail to show reputation. Now I’ve had my dig, PERFECT CITY would have a better chance with a different trainer. HIGHLAND BOBBY has the right man on board for Olly Murphy, but it’s got to be his other runner REDEMPTORIST for us. Fitness won’t be an issue, and a flat mark of 75 suggests 101 over hurdles is an easy target!
At the end of the 2013/14 season, Heidenheim where promoted from the 3rd division. Since then, the Baden-Würrtemburg club have finished 8-11-6-13-5 in the Zweite Bundesliga. And, during the recent campaign, Frank Schmidt´s team finished a 13 point 3rd to Armenia Bielefeld. If Hamburg had won on the last day it would have been them in this play-off, because on that occasion Heidenheim where losing their final game (3-0) to a team which had nothing to play for! The demise of Werder Bremen has been bad this season. Despite the club spending money on acquiring new players, the Green-Whites have failed to meet expectations. In fact, the club coached by Florian Kohfeldt would have already been relegated if Dusseldorf hadn’t lost their final game in Union Berlin (3-0). We can point to the Werder players responding positively to at least winning their final game of the campaign 6-1 against Köln. Furthermore, 4 games back they won in relegated Paderborn (1-4), and they where a bit unfortunate against Bayern (0-1). The negatives would be losing against the then relegation threatened Mainz, and more recently failing to beat todays opponent at home! With regards to season form, one thing jumps out with Werder. If all matches where played on the road, they where 8th best when travelling. In the last five away matches the Green-Whites won three including at Schalke and Freiburg! Werder will be without skipper Moisander, but other than that only Sahin is absent! We really can’t imagine a team with such talent not getting a result tonight, and in our opinion these odds are excessive!
If Sassuolo play at the level they can this will be an execution! The NeroVerdi came from 1-3 down to level it (3-3) with Verona, and then followed up with a 1-3 win in Fiorentina. By all intent and purpose, Roberto De Zerbi´s team controlled both of those matches. We can say without any reservation the hosts are playing some of their best football of the campaign, and winning a game like this should be a formality. Earlier on in the season Lecce managed to draw (2-2) the reverse game. During that phase Lecce also drew in AC Milan and at home to Juventus. Back in February, Fabio Liverani´s team gave themselves some hope of surviving with three straight wins especially considering one of them was was a fantastic win in Napoli (2-3). What happened next…. The visitors lost five in succession, with pastings at home to Atalanta (2-7) and in Juventus (4-0) standing out. I Lupi have really struggled of late, and with the likes of centre forward Lapadula missing it won’t get any easier. In fact, this 24 man squad is reduced by 5 injuries, and we are not expecting any sympathy from the hosts!
Wolves are closing down on a top four finish, and we believe they can beat Arsenal and give themselves an even better chance. While the Gunners have won back to back league fixtures, it’s probably fair to say the teams they beat (Southampton + Norwich) are struggling. Wolves on the other hand are growing in confidence, and they have now closed the gap to 3 points on third placed Leicester. Wolves have no new fitness worries ahead of Saturday's visit of Arsenal, Adama Traore may return to the starting line-up after coming off the bench in the 1-0 win at Aston Villa last week. He replaced Leander Dendoncker in Wolves' last home game - a 1-0 victory over Bournemouth - but the midfielder impressed and scored the winner in last weekend's triumph at Villa. Arsenal have midfielder Lucas Torreira fit and available for the trip to Molineux. The Uruguay international has been sidelined since March with an ankle injury but could return this weekend. Mesut Ozil (back) faces a fitness test while Pablo Mari (ankle), Bernd Leno, Gabriel Martinelli and Calum Chambers (all knee) are long-term absentees. While the hosts won’t win in spectacular fashion, it’s easy to imagine them picking holes in the Arsenal defence!
PREMIUM PICK --- KAMEKO travelled well in the Guineas, and he won with a bit more to spare than the official margin. However, the way he travelled that day suggests he’s going to be a top miler, this is likely to be a trip too far! MOGUL will need to improve, so I’m not going any further than aptly named ENGLISH KING. The son of CAMELOT looked superlative when winning at Lingfield, and that proves he can handle the undulations of Epsom. Dettori taking the ride is an added bonus, and we know he will stay all day!
PREMIUM PICK - In what was supposed to be a solid handicap, this fella won by half the track and the form has been franked. ALEXANDER JAMES is an ex UK trained runner, it’s just that his recent form doesn’t amount to much. KOURKAN is rated 47.5, truth is he’s running nearer 40! Looking at the rest they all seem beatable, so it’s down to TESTON building on his relationship with his new stable!
PREMIUM PICK on us - In the last round, two late penalties allowed Malmo to come back and force a draw in AIK (2-2). It was a disappointing conclusion for the Gnaget, because Rikard Norling´s team cruised for most of that match. Taking the positives out of that last AIK performance include they moved the ball around well, and the manager appears to have found the right formation. In any case, it’s not everyday refereeing decisions will go against the club, and it was their best performance of the season! On paper Goteborg had an easy fixture list to start the season. With that in mind, 4 points from the same amount of games is more negative than positive. Losing to Elfsborg wasn’t the best start to the season, but drawing with Sirius and Mjallby could be rated even lower. Only the win in Varbergs was a proper result, and that was down to having the rub of the green. Team news isn’t a game changer, AIK are simply more there!
PROUD ARCHIE should run his race, he likes it here and he did well enough on his return. However, a better option might be START TIME, because he’s nicely h´capped and comes from a stable in fine form. This type of ground suits the selection well, and bare in mind he was once rated 95 and he’s at 70 today. A wind operation, jockey riding well and start box 5 are other positive factors. Last but not least, he’s a CD winner who will race close to the pace!
Getafe failed to win any of their 4 games since the league returned, and all of them where against teams they would have expected to beat. Nevertheless, their was more to like in the recent 1-1 at Valladolid, and building on that here could be enough to get them back in the Champions league race. With a win today Real Sociedad would be able to leap frog Real Sociedad. However, the omens are against the team from the Basque Country, because they have lost their last three matches and have a handful of missing players. One of the players who will be sitting at home is defender Llorente, he’s been yellow carded in the last three games and now serves a suspension. Earlier on in the season the Azulones won the reverse fixture 1-2, and they look good value to get the win here!
Watford have no fresh injuries as his relegation-threatened side seeks to bounce back from defeat against Burnley. But boss Nigel Pearson says he will check on a number of players who played in sweltering conditions at Turf Moor. Daryl Janmaat, Gerard Deulofeu (both knee) and Isaac Success (ankle) remain absent. Southampton will be without Jack Stephens after his red card in the 2-0 defeat against Watford. Moussa Djenepo is also suspended, though he serves the final match of a three-game ban for his red card against Newcastle back in March. Midfielders Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg (ankle) and Sofiane Boufal (thigh) will be assessed in the run-up to kick-off. The Hornets are better when opponents take the initiative. With that in mind, the Saints could play into the hands of Nigel Pearson´s team. One thing is certain, motivation will be with this expensively establish team, and anything less than three points won’t be acceptable!
We had been suggesting the Verona bubble was about to burst, and that’s what happened in last weeks home defeat to Napoli (0-2). In all fairness this club have delivered more than expected this season, and they even won their comeback game against Cagliari. With that said, they rode their luck that day, and they didn’t seem to have a plan to stop last weeks opponent! Sassuolo fought really hard to get the draw in Inter (3-3), and you can believe us that despite the stats it was highly deserved. The NeroVerdi are a much under rated club, and while they do concede more than they should they also score plenty. In fact, Berardi has 10 this season, and that’s topped by Caputo with 14. We really like the hosts, and being close to complete will make life easier. Marlon returns from suspension, so the biggest headache for Roberto De Zerbi is going to be picking from many in form players! Great odds on this one!