Their would appear to be two Freiburg’s, or so it would appear. Afterall, the one that plays at home has only lost one of it’s eleven matches all season, while away they won just one . Prior to last weeks defeat in Hannover the hosts were unbeaten in four, and that included draws against better graded teams Bayer Leverkuesen, Dortmund and in Frankfurt. We should also mention Freiburg are a solid 4-5-1 over the last ten games overall. Werder Bremen won their last two fixtures, and that helped them escape the relegation zone. One of those was a surprising win in Schalke (1-2), although that team can’t be relied upon. In our opinion Freiburg are being underestimated in the betting market, so we believe the hosts are a must bet here.
Neither school has a legitimate chance to win the Big 12 regular season title but Kansas St has done much better at 7-6 to Iowa State's 4-9. We were surprised the Cyclones put up as much resistance against Kansas on Tuesday but truthfully, the Jayhawks just got lazy down the stretch. The Cyclones have been poor travelers all season and with not much to play for, they will play in an extremely tough environment against a Wildcats team that already thrashed them earlier this season. Hosts should get whatever they want here!
It's been a forgettable year for Iowa as they enter this game at 3-12 in the Big 10, only 2-12 Illinois with a worse record. Indiana sits at a more respectable 8-7 though nowhere near the top of the standings where their usually lofty standards require. The Hawkeyes have lost their last 4 while the Hoosiers come into this game having won 3 in a row. However, the Hoosiers have benefited from playing the dregs of the conference in Rutgers, Minnesota and Illinois and 2 of the 3 at home where they thrive. The Hawkeyes are playing for pride at this point but with few meaningful games left, this is probably the one where they give the most effort against a poor traveling team.
After finding some midseason form, Coastal Carolina continued to regress much as we expected and the Chanticleers have lost their last 3 to drop to 10th in the Sun Belt at 5-9. South Alabama has surprised many and sit in a 3 way tie for 3rd place at 7-6 with Troy and Georgia Southern. The Jaguars enter this game having won their last 3 games and bring a top 100 defense. We don't have much faith in the Chanticleers, at least certainly not enough to cover 5 pts.
San Jose St is still searching for its first conference win of the season as they sit in last place in the Mountain West at 0-13. While the Spartans have had their moments this year, they do not match up well with Wyoming who are relentless and love to push the pace. The Spartans did get the cover in the first meeting but benefited from a tired Cowboys team that played in a triple overtime game prior and in fact, trailed the Cowboys by 14 at half. In even tougher conditions at elevation, we believe the Spartans wave the white flag early here. Hosts should win by 20+.
Tennessee is battling for the top seed in the SEC as they trail Auburn by 2 games at 9-4. It wasn't easy for the Volunteers, but they came away with the win over a suprising tough South Carolina team on Tuesday and followed up their loss to Alabama a week ago. It's been a troubling season for Mark fox and the Georgia Bulldogs as they find themselves likely out of the NCAA Tournament lest they put together a run in the SEC Tournament. Still, the Bulldogs achieved something last week as they put together an amazing comeback against Florida for their first win in Gainesville since 2002. After that game, we're not sure if the Bulldogs have much left and we question if Fox can properly motivate his players. The Volunteers are a legitimate top 15 team in the country and we don't see the Bulldogs match their defensive effort from the game prior.
Despite winning their last 9 games and leading the CAA, Charleston has looked vulnerable at times with slow starts. UNC Wilmington, last year's Colonial representative to the NCAA Tournament, was expected to take a step back this season but the Seahawks have come on strong after a poor start, covering 8 of their last 11 games, though they don't figure to threaten for the CAA Title. We've successfully taken on Charleston multiple times this season but this number is much too small in our opinion for the vastly superior team. The Seahawks will have an advantage on the glass but their defending is much too poor to make enough of a difference in our opinion! The Cougars took the hosts lightly in the reverse fixture but we don't see that to be the case this time around.
It's been a disappointing season for Towson as we expected the Tigers to challenge for the CAA Title but at 8-7 in conference play, they find themselves at a very average 5th place. Nevertheless, this is still a team we believe is 2nd best in the CAA and they should be able to impose their style of play on the Dukes, who we've backed quite a bit this sesason but aren't as reliable on the road.
Jacksonville St got the cover against Murray St on Thursday though an outright win appeared out of reach as they fell to the Racers 68-60 and dropped to 9-6 in the OVC. Austin Peay has lost 2 of their last 3 and find themselves in 3rd place at 10-5. The Governors have improved much this year but we still prefer the Gamecocks here as they are a bit more experienced to deal with these big games with a lot on the line. The Gamecocks offense has been struggling, but they rebound the ball very well and they should get back on track against a Governors team that's had issues guarding the perimeter. Austin Peay won the first meeting 87-67 but we feel this is more of an aberration and unlikely for the Governors to shoot over 60% from the field again.
UCLA has been on a roll, winning 5 out of their last 6 and sit in 2nd place in the PAC-12 behind Arizona. Oregon was disappointing early in the season but have won 5 out of their last 7 and sit in the middle of the pack in conference play. The Ducks just played in a tough physical matchup against the Trojans on Thursday and while they won the reverse fixture 94-91, we see a completely different situation at Los Angeles. In particular, the Ducks perimeter defense looks especially vulnerable against a Bruins team with shooters all over the court. We also don't see anyone on Oregon matching up with Thomas Welsh inside. As long as the Bruins are motivated, this should be a tap-in on their home court!
The FA cup always throws up a few surprises, but we will be shocked if Sheffield United can get the better of Leicester. Afterall, if one team should be holding back with players it’s the visitors, because at the end of the day they are hoping to be involved in the promotion race. Leicester on the other hand won’t be pushing for a place in Europe, and neither is their is a chance of them being relegated. With all due respect, the FA cup is a big opportunity for the host, and the last thing Claude Puel will want is the risk of having a replay.
Chelsea were no way three goals better than West Brom the other night, but it was still a confidence boosting performance from Antonio Conte’s side. Their is no doubting that the Blues will be rotating some of their squad players into the team tonight, but none of that should matter against Championship team Hull. Afterall, the Tiger’s have been absolutely battered by injuries and missing players, and they won’t be able to use the Chelsea boys who were loaned to them. Lets take the hosts to put on a show and win by more than 2.5 goals.