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SWAT has a win record of 1/23. He’s up a pound in the weights and just 3/1 in the betting. Add to that he’s been a beaten fav on 4 from the last 10 occasions, enough said. We would prefer SONNET ROSE if she had her regular apprentice taking off 7 pounds. Robert Havlin not claiming and upped two pounds means she to is a no no! It was a soft race JUMPING AROUND was second, so SHOWDANCE KID for us. This bet is based on drop in trip suiting him better, and showing a decent level of form last time out.
WANT OUR BEST RACING PICKS, THEN JOIN OUR ELITE SERVICE - DO IT NOW AND WE WILL GIVE YOU 2 MONTHS FOR THE PRICE OF ONE (CHELTENHAM + AINTREE INCLUDED). This is a free pick, with the main reason being odds are shorter than we like to bet for PREMIUM. Nevertheless, it’s just a three horse race, thus odds of around 2/1 are more than acceptable for RONS DREAM. Peter Bowen’s 8 year old would be giving 4 pounds to the jolly HAPPY DIVA if this were a h’cap, and the fact is she’s receiving 4 pounds here. That alone suggests a clear round should suffice, so it’s easy to see the logic behind this bet. It’s often lucrative to bet the outsider of three, but we don’t believe that applies to doubly penalised THE NIPPER.
Although it was a bit of a surprise, the mare APPLESOLUTELY won well on her hurdling debut. Prior to that her form in Point to Points was just average, so we want to see her again before believing she’s improved so much. We are put off CARLOS DU FRUITIER by his penalty, while KNOCKROBIN and WELL SMITTEN (no runner now) fall short on form. Although he didn’t appear to try very hard last time GOOD MAN PAT is a really strong traveller, and his form looks the best on show. We believe this wide margin winner of a point to point should be suited by this small field and reverting to a left handed track. Trip and ground shouldn’t be an issue, and we are also happy to see a change of jockey.
In a hugely important game in the Atlantic-10, Rhode Island hosts Davidson in a battle between the #1 and #2 teams in the conference. Rhode Island is a perfect 11-0 in conference play and is 19-3 overall on the season. Davidson sits at 8-3 against A10 opponents but is coming off back to back 29 point demolitions of George Washington and St Joseph's. The Rams made easy work of VCU in their last game but perhaps showed some complacency in the 2 games prior against UMass and Duquesne. The Wildcats shoot the ball extremely well and are a force on the glass. If the Wildcats can force the Rams to play at their pace, we don't believe winning by margin will be so easy. Visitors to keep it within a single possession!
It hasn't been a very good season for Oakland despite their satisfactory 7-5 record in the Horizon League. The Golden Grizzlies do have a win over Northern Kentucky in late January but promptly lost their next 2 games and have been wildly inconsistent in conference play, likely stemming from their poor defense. Detroit has been downright atrocious at times this season but they do tend to play their best against Oakland and with both sides nursing some injuries and/or suspensions, the Titans should play with nothing to lose while the Grizzlies will just be satisfied with a win.
Toledo leads the MAC West with a 9-2 record in conference play but they are facing a Miami (OH) team that continues to exceed expectations and have proven to extremely useful to back at home. The RedHawks' defense is perhaps even better than we gave them credit for and they are very adept at defending the 3 ball, which the Rockets rely on. The RedHawks have covered the last 4 times as an underdog, winning outright 3 times and we see no reason they don't put up a fight here.
The Bulls have really struggled losing their last 7 games and it's no surprise as some key players that led the resurgence are missing. Kris Dunn has cleared concussion protocol but he remains out for a few more games. Nikola Mirotic has been traded to New Orleans. However, the Bulls should receive a boost tonight with Lauri Markkanen returning after the birth of his child and perhaps acquired a wild card in Noah Vonleh from Portland. The Timberwolves look like a real contender in the West but they are coming off an extremely hard fought 140-138 overtime loss to the Cavs on Wednesday. This should be personal to a lot of different players and coaches facing their former teams. Thibodeau got the better of his former employer twice last season but as his overworked team isn't in the ideal situation, we expect the hosts to put up a fight and possibly win outright. To be safe, we're going to take the points!
Arizona St started the year a perfect 12-0 but has struggled to maintain that form in conference play as they're still below .500 against PAC-12 opponents at 5-6. USC was the exact opposite in many ways as they've excelled in conference play at 8-3 after a poor start to the season in non-conference play. USC plays slower than in recent years but the Sun Devils still love to push the pace and when these teams match up, it generally leads to fireworks and we see the Trojans happy to play in a shootout
After a fantastic start to the season in non-conference play, Washington St has had a tough go of it against PAC-12 opponents at just 1-9 in conference play. Oregon St has a few more wins than the Cougars but have struggled losing their last 4 games and 6 out of their last 7. As much as Washington State's fortunes have reversed, we're having a hard time accepting the Beavers as near double digit favorites. After all, the Cougars have done well to stay competitive in games where the final score hasn't always been truly indicative of how the game played out. The Cougars 3 point shooting should keep them in this game!
Weber St sits in 2nd place in the Big Sky at 8-2 and is chasing 11-0 Montana. North Dakota is on the other side near the bottom at 3-8 and have lost 4 of their last 5. North Dakota is an extremely poor defensive team and love to play fast which is usually not a recipe for success. However, one area the Fighting Hawks are competent in is defending the 3 which matches up well against the Wildcats. The first meeting between these 2 teams went over but we expect differently this time around and we certainly don't expect the visitors to shoot over 50%. This total is a few pips too high!