Both sides suffered humbling losses in their last game with the Gators falling to Georgia as road favorites and Alabama losing at home to Missouri. The Crimson Tide haven't had the best of luck away from home this season but they have thrived in the underdog role and their defense should be enough to keep them in this game. The Gators recently lost outright to South Carolina, a team with a similar profile to the Tide and we believe an upset wouldn't be completely out of the cards here!
Idaho St came through for us Thursday as they defeated Northern Arizona 63-61 and narrowly covered the 1 pt spread. We expected the Lumberjacks to be outmatched here but it's worth mentioning that the Bengals appeared to lose some steam late and allowed a double digit lead to shrink to 2 in the waning moments. Southern Utah is again one of the Big Sky bottom dwellers but they have proven to be dangerous playing at home over the years and should provide a serious challenge against a Bengals team that will be playing their 2nd consecutive game at elevation. The Bengals will have to earn it!
Texas Tech has won their last 3 but have struggled against the market, winning just one time ATS in their last 7. Furthermore, the Red Raiders have lost their last 3 road games in conference play by a combined 37 points including 2 losses as a favorite against Iowa St and Texas. TCU has been a bit of a hard luck team with 6 losses in conference play but the Horned Frogs have been competitive in every loss and this is a team we rate highly despite their record. Hosts to win comfortably over the poor travelers!
The Citadel, traditionally one of the weaker teams in the Southern Conference has made some headlines in the past week as they pulled off 2 stunning upsets and nearly a third. The Bulldogs first won at Mercer as 16 pt underdogs then nearly repeated the feat against East Tennessee St losing by 2, only to then turn around and defeat Wofford on Thursday as 10 pt underdogs. Suffice to say, however, we are not convinced as it's more an indictment on their opponents poor preparation and they will face a team in Furman that has enjoyed beating up on their rival in recent years. The Paladins are coming off 2 convincing wins over Western Carolina and Mercer and won the reverse fixture by 40 earlier this month. Visitors to put the upstart Bulldogs back in their place!
UCF may have gotten a relatively comfortable win over Connecticut on Wednesday but we are none too convinced with the Knights, after all, the Huskies are far removed from their championshp calibre teams and aren't even a top 150 team this season. Since Tacko Fall's season ending injury, the Knights' defense hasn't been quite the same and this is one that the markets still have not quite adjusted to. Houston is a legitimate team this year and has scored a win over Wichita St and deserved better than a 70-80 scoreline against Cincinnati last game. The Cougars have multiple players they can rely on offensively whereas the Knights have just BJ Taylor. We'll back the more balanced team.
Detroit is going through a really tough stretch right now having lost 4 in a row and their last 2 games by a combined 60 points. To make matters worse, 2 key players are out due to academic issues (Jaleel Hogan and Tariiq Jones) and another, Jermaine Jackson Jr. is dealing with a knee injury. With that said, they face another team that's been struggling as IUPUI has lost 3 straight and is a dismal 1-12 on the road this year. It's hard to pick a winner in this and home court should be negligible but with 2 of the worst defenses, I can't see anything but an over.
With a mark of 79 CRAVING sets a decent standard. Godolphin owned BRODERIE could be anything and the same applies to Mark Johnson trained FIRLINFEU. However, SOCIOLOGIST ran such an interesting race on his debut and that marks him down has a potentially decent horse. The way he finished that day after running green suggests their is a lot more to come, and it’s easy to understand why Oisin Murphy took the early flight back from Dubai for the ride.
A decent claimer with the three heading the betting rated 77 to 80. CAPTAIN LARS is definitely useful and knows how to win. However, he’s stepping up in trip and he’s changing track. OUTER SPACE won nicely at Wolverhampton, but he’s 0-3 here and two of those were has favourite. Robert Winston is worth a few pounds over the apprentices and his mount VARSOVIAN won five times here. At odds of 4/1 he’s worth a poke!
Viktorija Golubic must be happy that she stayed on in Australia to take on this ITF tournament. Afterall, four wins would have helped restore confidence, and making any final is a fair reward. However, today she gets to play unknown teenager Marta Kostyuk, and we believe the 15 year old Ukrainian will come away with a vital win. Kostyuk was born into tennis on both sides of her parentage, and she’s clearly a player to reckon with. In fact, prior to arriving here she had already beaten both Shuai Peng and Olivia Rogowska in the main event of the Australian open, and that was after coming through three rounds of qualification. Marta has beaten the likes of Khromacheva, Elie, Wang (Xiy) and Hives this week, so she’s clearly not going to be intimidated by playing someone with more experience. At these odds why not!
PREMIUM BET FOR FREE (1 from 4) - SUBSCRIBE TO PAID ELITE FOR OTHERS -------LUCKOFTHEDRAW brings decent bumper form, and he is receiving a useful six pounds from the two ahead of him in the betting. Nevertheless, that pair set decent figures, and they are more proven at this game. Last but not least is the trainer issue, because betting Twiston-Davies runners is a quick way to the poor house. DON’T ASK appears to have the most stable form, but on official figures he’s got three pounds to find on MARLEY FIRTH. Dan Skelton’s runner disappointed at Plumpton last time out, so that’s the main worry. However, lots of fancied runners ran below par at that meeting has the ground seemed to make some horses nervous. Forgive and forget and concentrate on his CD win!
SHINE SHINE BABY was only rated 61 on the flat, and we are struggling to find more than 102 for her last time out hurdles run. That’s the same mark the h’capper gave SIN SIN, so their is no surprise to see them share the same odds of 9/4. SPIRIT OF ROME was rated even lower on the flat, but the h’capper says she’s worth 110 over the sticks. That of course suggests she’s got 8 pounds in hand of the others. And, while that might not be the case we at least believe she’s got the best form and is the one to beat.
Illinois-Chicago surprisingly sits in 3rd place in the Horizon League and could move into a tie for 2nd with a win tonight as Wright St dropped a game to bottom dweller Cleveland St yesterday. It of course won't be easy playing at Oakland but the Golden Grizzlies showed some vulnerability on Sunday, looking completely listless against Wright St in a 64-51 loss. Granted, the Flames haven't played the toughest slate of conference opponents but the Golden Grizzlies' defense has shown some major issues that don't appear to be improving. Visitors should be able to keep this within single digits.