This is a late start for Europeans, but who cares if you are winning! ——— We were a little disappointed when Elina Svitolina lost last weeks match to Sloane Stephens, because she looked a bit lethargic. The only thing we can think is the Ukrainian was a bit short of match fitness, because she hadn’t played for five weeks going in to that tournament. Other than that she’s ranked 7 in the world, she’s 32-10 on the year and 21-5 on hard court. During the current campaign Svitolina has already won Brisbane, Dubai and Rome, and in 2015 she made the semi final here. Svetlana Kuznetsova played a good tournament to win Washington, and she made the QF of this for the last two years. However, the 33 year old Russian is clearly not the player she once was, and to be analytical she didn’t beat much in Washington. Add to that her YTD is very average, and her opponent is a class act.
Amazing - Some people are copying and pasting our tips for Fantasy Sports betting ——— It’s sick!! —————Stop press, Agnieszka Radwanska leads head to heads 7-0. And, while those matches came at a better time for the 29 year old, the fact is she won them all in straight sets. Their is no doubt Aga has struggled with fitness over the past few years, and she’ might never be the same player again. Nevertheless, during the current campaign she’s beaten players such has Kvitova, Ostapenko and Halep, and with all due respect they are better than todays opponent Karolina Pliskova. We have always said that Pliskova is a one trick pony. And, although she’s a former number one, that was more down to misfiring opponents. In fact, Karolina is one of those players who can hammer poor opposition, but she’s got a very poor record against top players. Aga has won nearly three times the prize money of her opponent, and she’s an all round better player. If the Polish girl is fit, we would fancy her to beat last years semi finalist.
This is the other early start we have today ——— We have a lot of respect for playing mother Tatjana Maria. Afterall, she’s one of the hardest workers on tour and she will give it her best. With that said, the 30 year old German doesn’t have a great record in the main draw, and she’s almost certainly beatable. Allie Kiick made the qtr’s of Washington, and she’s claimed two good scalps here. The 23 year old has plenty more to offer, and her 36/16 suggests she’s the player to beat here. Take the exciting Kiick, she’s got the potential to rank much higher
Early start, so important to get this one on the board. ———— A couple of weeks back in Washington, this pair played and Ana Bogdan ended up winning (7-6 6-3) in straight sets. With all due respect, if the Russian can’t beat her opponent at that venue, she shouldn’t have a better chance here. Afterall, conditions are extreme heavy, and that is likely to take away from Makarova’s natural game. If we had a bit more trust in Ana Bogdan then we would make this a major bet. With that said the Romanian has been really I’mpressive in qualifying, and anything around that level of form should suffice.
We are giving todays tennis bets for free again, here’s hoping that our followers are rewarded. ————We thought Kiki Bertens was a bit soft when losing to Ashleigh Barty last week, but un hindsight she might have needed her first tournament since Wimbledon. On a positive note she had already won three matches in Montreal, and one of them was against Petra Kvitova. Coco Vandeweghe usually has swings in her season, and she appears to be in a trough at the moment. Slow conditions are unlikely to favour the American, while the opposite is true of her opponent.
Starting pitchers are John Gant for the hosts and Gio Gonzalez for the visitors. Gio Gonzalez has done well to keep an ERA below 4.00 on the season but much as we expected, he has regressed this season due to his diminished velocity and degradation of his secondary pitches. Particularly troubling for Gonzalez has been his loss of control as his walk rate has skyrocketed to 4.32 BB/9 on the year and his K rate has trickled down to below 8.00 K/9 currently. Gonzalez being a southpaw faces a tough matchup against a right handed heavy Cardinals lineup that can hit for power. On the other side, John Gant is in a similar situation though in reverse as the right hander has an xFIP of 5.10 against lefties as opposed to 3.94 against righties. Those splits become even more extreme at home and in any case, Gant isn't really equipped to last deep into the game exposing the Cardinals poor bullpen. It's not often we see a total of 9 at Busch Stadium but we feel it's more than justified and still see value in the over!
Starting pitchers are Andrew Cashner for the hosts and Jason Vargas for the visitors. Jason Vargas can perhaps be useful to back at times despite his clownish looking 8.75 ERA but this is certainly not one of those instances as Camden Yards is not the ideal venue for a fly ball pitcher. While the Orioles have been one of the worst hitting teams in the league, their wRC+ against southpaws at home have been a somewhat respectable 94, 18th out of 30 teams. Their walk rate in that situation sits at 8.2% which is a slight improvement from their overall rate of 7.3% and their strikeout rate of 20.9% is actually 9th lowest compared to their 23.4% K rate in all situations which is 7th highest out of 30 teams. This is due to the Orioles being predominantly a right handed hitting team and while Vargas's platoon splits are actually reversed this season, his career numbers indicate he's much worse against right handers as expected from a southpaw. On the other side, Andrew Cashner hasn't been able to duplicate his success from a season ago but he faces a Mets team that doesn't hit for much power and might not be completely focused on this series after their win against the Yankees last night on national TV. Bullpens are dreadful for both sides but we believe the hosts should be modest favourites here as we don't see any clear advantage for the visitors.
One for the early hours - We have given all four for free today. If you would like to obtain all our WTA bets to the end of November, do it today for just €200 ——— firstname.lastname@example.org —————Alize Cornet is worth a punt to get the better of Jelena Ostapenko. Afterall, the French girl is at the top of her game, and winning a recent tournament in Gstaad would have given her plenty of confidence. We were also taken by the way Cornet qualified here, because she beat both Gibbs and Kenin with ultimate ease. It doesn’t feel like Ostapenko is 24-16 on the year, because by her standard she’s not having a good season. With that said, the Latvian made the semi’s of Wimbledon and she also made the final of Miami. However, she did go out of this tournament at the first obstacle last year, and in 2016 she didn’t get much further. The other thing we would like point out is heavy humidity could slow Ostapenko’s power play.
Ask yourself this, what do you do for other people - We are constantly paying it forwards, try it you might feel good ———Viktoria Kuzmova could have done without playing two hours against Camila Giorgi in the last round of quailfication. Afterall, that’s a long time on court and it was a brutal match. Suffice to say, the backlash from that could be fatigue. And, even if it’s not, then she’s facing a tough opponent in Aliaksandra Sasnovich. The 24 year old from Belarus is 14/4 on hard court (YTD), and with a rank of 36 she was unfortunate having to play qualification. Nevertheless, she beat two good players in Alison Riske and Vera Lapko, and at her best tournament this year (Brisbane finalist) she had to take a similar route. While the matches won’t get easier, we have to go with the SAS!
We suppose this match should come with a warning - but great value all the same ————Barbora Strycova might be super consistent, but she’s certainly got limitations. Anett Kontaveit is not at all consistent, but she’s got a big game. The only real question to answer is what will Kontaveit do, because she’s certainly got this match on her racket. We could go through the stats, but we won’t because they are meaningless. When the Estonian plays like she did in Rome, Stuttgart, this is one way traffic. And, while she hasn’t made it past the first round in her last two visits here, she should be able to hit through her opponent.
Have todays tennis bets on us - We are giving all four away for free. However, don’t expect this everyday, because we believe people who are benefitting should also pay some of our associated costs. ———— We always believed Rebecca Peterson is under-rated, and she certainly looked good in beating Putintseva. However, we would question the wisdom of making her favourite against a player such has Katerina Siniakova. When you look at the two players YTD stats, it’s the Swede who has the better numbers. With that said, if you delve a little deeper then you will see Siniakova mainly plays at the top level, and many of her defeats were against top twenty players. Like we already mentioned, it’s about the odds!
Starting pitchers are Miles Mikolas for the hosts and Tommy Milone for the visitors. Not much was realistically expected from Tommy Milone so in that sense, his 19/0 K/BB ratio in 3 starts this season over 18 innings of work is impressive and is a reason for his 3.30 xFIP despite his 5.50 ERA. Nevertheless, Milone was ungraciously exposed by the Braves last time out as he was pummeled for 7 runs on 10 hits with 3 home runs allowed despite Milone being a southpaw pitching to a left handed heavy team. Milone's fastball was a complete liability as it averaged just 87.3 mph and lacked any movement to create any swings and misses. Milone faces a predominantly right handed Cardinals team that also hits for power and we don't like Milone's chances with a .423 wOBA against righties albeit in a limited sample size. On the other side, Miles Mikolas faces a similar problem as the right hander will face a left handed heavy lineup with a wOBA of .320 against right handed pitchers, 3rd highest mark in the NL. Mikolas has shown the ability to pitch deep into games but nevertheless, he does have one of the worst bullpens in the league behind him and while the Nationals' relievers are a bit better, they now have their top 2 high leverage pitchers on the DL in Sean Doolittle and Kelvin Herrera and in fact fill-in closer Ryan Madson would go on to blow a 3-0 lead in the 9th inning last night against the Cubs. We see runs for both sides!