Starting pitchers are David Hess for the hosts and Eduardo Rodriguez for the visitors. Eduardo Rodriguez is quietly emerging as one of the better arms in baseball but there are a number of factors here working against him. Despite the Orioles' pitiful offense this season, they have been at their best at extremely hitter-friendly Camden Yards facing southpaws where they own the 11th best OPS in the league at .754 and have the 18th best BA at .243 despite the 7th worst BABIP at .271. Their walk rate is also much higher in this situation at 9.3% which is league average and their K% is actually in the bottom third at a very respectable 21.2%. Furthermore, this is certainly Rodriguez's worst matchup as his xFIP on the road against right handed bats sits at 4.55 contrasted to 3.69 at home vs righties and 1.13 on the road against lefties. This is significant as the Orioles sport a lineup with nearly all right handed batters and their most dangerous hitter Manny Machado is likely to be on the field tonight after sitting out yesterday with an illness. On the other side, David Hess has turned in quality starts in 4 of 5 outings this year for the beleaguered Baltimore pitching staff but much of it is smoke and mirrors aided by an incredibly low BABIP (.239) and a near perfect strand rate of 94.0%. Hess's xFIP of 5.32 tells the story and the Red Sox lineup should have their way as the best hitting team against right handed pitching this season. The Red Sox bullpen is among the best but the Orioles' relievers have been downright atrocious lately and while yesterday's game was scoreless for the first 11 innings, we're more concerned about the bullpens being a bit rundown for both sides due to the extra innings. We have this at 9.5!
LOVELY MISS won well at Chantilly. We thought she showed a really good attitude to take that on her debut, and the form looks stronger than anything here. Matthieu Palussiere must have the biggest stable of two year olds in France, and they have been winning plenty. However, most are fit to go in first time, so we are not expecting masses of improvement from OH MY OH MY. ON THE EDGE beat a very modest UK trained horse in the French province, and she was receiving 5 kg. That form adds up to very little, same has that from DOLLIS HILL. Here’s hoping that the German fixed odds bookies give us over the odds!
We are highly profitable in French racing, but unfortunately we won’t be sharing many tips. The reason for that is France operates a PMU (pool betting), so the more money going on our selections the shorter odds we would be given. You see, it would be counter productive and unwise business. However, we might throw up the odd bet, so we have made this section just for that ———— Despite this being the Tierce we believe GAROPABA is a good thing. If the four year old had been given half a ride at Longchamp he would have won that Tierce. However, Tony Piccone gave the filly to much to do and she was just held. BHAGEERATHI finished behind in fourth that day, and we thought the Fabre horse was given an exceptional ride. Suffice to say, on the same terms their is no reason to expect a reversal. Being drawn on the outside isn’t a bad thing, because the selection likes to come with speed. Christophe Soumillion is clearly a much better jockey, and the last form was on similar ground to todays. With a generous pace anticipated, we can only imagine one winner!
HERE IS A SECOND RACING BET FOR FREE - The two at the head of the betting have solid h’cap marks, so any of the other novices will need to improve. On official ratings FLYING SPARKLE is the one to beat. However, following Michael Bell favourites is a quick way to the poor house, and we readily prefer first time blinkered REBEL STREAK. Everything went wrong for this fella last time out, so it’s best to forgive that effort. Other than that he’s got a solid profile!
Despite being top rated, ROBIN THE RAVEN needs taking on. While the six year old is likely to be more natural at this game than DEAUVILLE CRYSTAL, it was disappointing that he was beaten by that runner last time out. Afterall, the latter was totally outpaced at one stage of that race, and he wasn’t very fluid over his fences. Suffice to say the jolly has every right to reverse that form with Nigel Hawke’s runner, but he might not get the better of JEANNOT DE NONANT. The first thing which stands out his Sean Bowen is deserting DEAUVILLE CRYSTAL for the ride on his fathers six year old. While the son of Full of Gold hasn’t always looked a natural jumper he appears to be getting it together, and he’s talented enough to defy a penalty.
Starting pitchers are Junior Guerra for the hosts and Jose Quintana for the visitors. When looking at this matchup, one number sticks out and its Quintana's history with the Brewers. Quintana has faced the Brewers twice this season without allowing a run in 13 innings of work and going back to last season, in 4 starts, Quintana is 3-1 with 2 runs allowed on 12 hits combined over 28 innings of work with a 29/7 K/BB ratio. On top of that, the Brewers are one of the worst hitting teams against southpaws this season. Nevertheless, there are some things to consider and it's that Quintana's individual game xFIP hasn't been overly impressive and he has benefited from an extremely low BABIP. By that same token, the Brewers have suffered from the lowest BABIP this season against LHP as right handed hitters at .249 but have still managed a respectable .711 OPS in that situation, 21st out of 30 teams in that regard. We expect this to be relevant as the Brewers should have nearly all right handed bats in the lineup tonight with Christian Yelich being the lone exception and Travis Shaw likely getting a night off in favour of Hernan Perez. Quintana also has had major control issues this year, issuing 4.34 BB/9 and as badly as the Brewers have hit against southpaws, they've still maintained their discipline and walked 9.9% of the time as right handed hitters against left handed pitchers, 10th in the league and also strikeout just 18.5% of the time, which is the 3rd lowest rate in the league. On the other side, Guerra is similar in that his numbers are a bit of a mirage as his 2.83 ERA has benefited from a low BABIP and high strand rate. Guerra too has had some limited success against the Cubs but we have a hard time imagining this to continue against the best hitting team against right handed pitchers in the National League. The Brewers bullpen is excellent but the Cubs' relievers have really struggled lately and in any case, we see some early fireworks in this one that puts this over with some to spare!
Note : We always bet with LISTED PITCHERS. We have been given permission to add one of todays MLB bets for free -------- Starting pitchers are Zach Eflin for the hosts and Brandon Woodruff for the visitors. Eflin has done well to stick it out in the rotation thus far but there simply isn't enough talent here in our opinion and it's only a matter of time before his respectable 3.74 ERA and 4.15 xFIP creeps upwards as his home run rate normalizes. The Brewers are one of the best slugging team against right handed pitchers and have been on a tear this series, taking the first two games by a combined score of 24-7. On the other side Brandon Woodruff is starting just his 3rd game of the season and his 6.05 ERA looks awful but much can be blamed on one bad start in a difficult situation at Coors Field and his xFIP is a much more respectable 3.71. In any case, we have much more faith in Woodruff's abilities and he's shown effectiveness against both sides of the plate which is important as the Phillies will look to stack the lineup with left handed bats. Bullpen advantage is in favour of the hosts as the Brewers carry the 3rd best group of relievers by the SIERA metric while the Phillies' are mediocre at best. Visitors to get the sweep.
As per promised, full enclosure on all tennis bets today (its a one-off). Magda Linette has done us a couple of favours this week, and so has her opponent Tamara Zidansek. However, their is no thing such has loyalty in betting, so we only go with what we have seen. Linette had an easier expected than ride to the final, because her intended match with Errani was called off after the Italian retired. To be honest, we expected the Polish girl to win her matches against the likes of Golubic and Kalinina, so we won’t get overly excited about that! Tamara Zidansek on the other hand exceeded expectations with a cosy win over the in form Schmiedlova. Yesterdays victory over Tena Lukas confirmed the 20 year olds improvement, and her first round victory against Tomljanovic told us she was fully wound up for the tournament. If Zidansek plays at the same level, this should be done + dusted!
Have today on us, but don’t expect so many freebies everyday. Serious gamblers get on board our highly profitable tennis service firstname.lastname@example.org —— Putting too much faith in Tereza Martincova is likely to prove costly. Afterall, the 23 year old has failed to deliver at the higher level, and if anything she becomes more disappointing every time we see her. And, while the Czech did win in the first round of qualification against Cornelia Lister, she did make hard work of what should have been a straight forward job. The highest rank 29 year old Marina Melinkova ever reached was 170, so she’s clearly not up to playing at the best level. Nevertheless, the Russian leads her opponent 2-0 on head to heads, and she’s comfortable on a fast surface. Furthermore, while she made hard work of winning yesterdays match against Lidziya Marozava, a recent wins over Soler-Espinosa and a three set loss to Safarova suggests she got more to come.
Today we are giving you our qualification bets for free. If you would like a full service for Nottingham and Hertogenbosch you can get the whole week for just €25. Please note from tomorrow we only add one for free everyday, and we would expect to make circa 30-35 bets this week. If you are serious about betting and want to get on board ———— email@example.com ——— In 2016, Tara Moore looked like she was ready to make a big breakthrough following a final of Eastbourne and a QF here. However, the Brit was poor in 2017 and that’s why she needs to play through qualification here. On a positive note, the 25 year old looked good in the first round and her first match of the season against Imanishi. Being Rumanian we can assume Ruse is going to be better on other surfaces than this, so it could be all about Moore showing what she can do!
Here is one in France for people who taking betting serious, also try the couple place if you can make such bets! Also, compare the PMU odds to fixed, because you can often get better by letting it ride! ——— Wouldn’t be surprised to see SUBWAY DANCER land in the first three, so at big odds she would be a consideration for the ‘’Couple place’’, We are not buying into SPOTIFY at all, and while Markus Klug might be doing well in Germany his runners are often being over bet and not winning in other countries. From our experience 3.7 in Longchamp doesn’t ride like ‘’soft’’, and we believe FIRST SITTING will get away with such conditions. With all due respect to the others, she’s by far the best filly in the race. Gerald Mosse riding back on home soil is also a positive factor, and their are plenty of other ticks in the right box.
Five bets gone out to Premium racing subscribers, this is the shortest price of them. To give you a Freemium users a better chance we are going to add a second in Longchamp for free - MOONRAKER won his race at Ascot, but he’s hardly prolific. We believe he will find it hard under a penalty, and the same applies to the pacey JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE. ERISSIMUS MAXIMUS might be better suited by a stiffer track than this, while ELYSIAN FLYER needs softer ground. All arrows point to TARBOOSH running a big race. Paul Midgley’s five year old is taking a big drop in grade, and he wasn’t beaten far in the Epson Dash. Since four of his five wins have come in fields of single figures, we can’t see todays seven runners working against him. In any case, their is plenty of pace to chase and that could be all he needs.