PREMIUM PICK - It’s hard to put into words how poor Esbjerg where in the last round defeat (3-1) in Odense. When we consider that opponent couldn’t even put a full squad together, it looked a great opportunity for the team coached by Lars Olssen. However, some naive defending soon saw the visitors on the back foot, and three first half goals had sealed their fate. Following the game the EfB coach said his players looked lethargic, and we agree! Randers also lost at the weekend, but to be fair they gave 2nd placed FCK (2-1) a hard game. In fact, the then visitors had more goalscoring opportunities, and it was a much improved performance. Randers can also take faith from knowing they have already beaten todays opponent twice this year. On both occasions the scoreline was 3-0, and one of those was in this stadium. With regards to that game, take note the red card came after it was already 0-3! The visitors only just missed out of playing in the championship group, by all intent and purpose they are the better team!
Big field of lightly raced three year old fillies, so the temptation would be to look further down the betting. However, on dissection, we keep coming back to KNOW IT ALL. The selection is a real strong traveller, and she can be pretty much ridden from anywhere in the race. With a strong pace assured, I expect her to be dropped in and make a challenge at the furlong pole. Ben Coen won’t be able to drawer his claim, but not of that should matter. For the record, two of the stable runners ran above expectations on day one!
PREMIUM PICK - One of our three tips for todays Denmark, this one we are paying forward for FREE USERS - Horsens seem to have it in for the big teams! Over the last two games the team of Bo Henriksen have defied massive odds to beat the top two sides Midtjylland and FCK. On both occasions, ACH defended deep while leaving enough of an attacking option. It’s a system that works well, and earlier on in the season it was good enough to drag the three points (1-2) out of todays opponent Brondby. With regards to that match, Henriksen was happy to see his players give up possession. Afterall, it gave Brondby a false sense of security, and it was the then visitors who came out with the most goal attempts and shots on target! Brondy had to dig deep to win their last match against Sonderjyske, and while the win was justified it was hardly impressive. To make a long storey short, Horsens are playing above their weight and it’s hard to imagine them not getting something here!
Big race in France - have this one on us ---------That extra weight will make it hard for CARRICOU, and he’s not a 83 rated individual. FEU FOLLET gets a lot of allowances, worry with him is inexperience. SRELIGHONN isn’t prolific enough for a race like this, and ROI MAGE is another placed type. CRYSTAL BEACH is the one which stands out, and i’ve got him down has a runner who will be particularly suited by this track!
I must be mad, sent out 9 picks to PREMIUM racing subscribers already and another 3 will follow. Even been sharing our highly lucrative French picks, albeit that’s only because we have been gutting UK fixed odds. We are giving two for free users, hopefully you can get on ————The dogs have been barking the name of QUADRILATERAL, and dh’s certainly got the form to be a competitive favourite here. BOOMER should run well at bigger odds, and LOVE is also going to be involved. However, Jessica Harrington is no mug, and her MILLISLE is very interesting on her step up to the mile. In the Cheveley she shaped like further would suit, and if that’s the case her form stands out!
Local derby match! No love lost between these two neighbouring clubs, and coming into this Frankfurt are the form team. In the last round Eintracht beat another relegation contender Werder Bremen (0-3), and prior to that they had beaten Wolfsburg (1-2). Both of those matches took place on the road, but we don’t believe they are better when travelling! Mainz are having a really tough campaign, hardly a surprise for a shoe string budget club. Whichever way you look at it the Nullfunfers have failed to find the right players, and even a change of manager hasn’t done much for the cause. With just 5 matches remaining the visitors have just one point to spare over the relegation places, and two of the remaining games are against Dortmund and Bayer Leverkuesen. The only positive for Mainz is they get to play Werder Bremen and Augsburg, and teams around them keep losing. In fact, the bottom 7 sides all lost in the last round! With regards to todays match, Baku is suspended for the visitors. First choice GK Robin Zentner is injured, while defenders Hack and St.Juste need to pass the doctor. Eintracht are still without Palencio, but Lucas Torro is available after serving his one match suspension! If Frankfurt go for the jugular, they should have too much quality for a patched-up opponent!
It was pretty obvious that this line was going to be set at three goals or higher, because this seasons Bundesliga is seeing goals! In fact, since resumption their have been 118 goals in 37 games (average 3.19). 23 of the 37 matches ended with over 2.5 goals, whereas 17 of the 37 over 3.5 goals. Freiburg matches average just 2.72 goals, and at home it sinks to a lowly 2.29. Gladbach games have a 3.17 goal average, and on the road it’s 2.64. Earlier on in the season the visitors won the reverse match 4-2, with two of those goals came in the first 6 minutes. For the record, Embolo got two that day, he’s injured and will miss this game. With regards to recent results and league positions, both sides are fighting for European football. The visitors are 4th and just 4 points behind 2nd placed Dortmund, while Freiburg are 4 points outside the Europa league places. If the hosts allow Borussia to run with the ball they wouldn’d have much chance. With that in mind, Christian Streich is almost certain to play with a 4-4-2 with 2 holding midfielders filling in the hole. That tactic will slow the game down, and with that in mind we expect a low scoring game!
Oisin Murphy would have had a few choices in this race and he went for INCLYNE, he should be thereabouts. Although he wins in turn, MEDALLA DE ORE is a tricky client. Only 5 pounds separate the top from the bottom, so STARFIGHTER isn’t giving much away. However, he doesn’t win very often! The one i like is INVOLVED, because he’s won both return races to date. and, while he’s clearly had physical issues, he’s got more to give!
Aude Duporte is proving to be good on sprinters, and her 4kg allowance is a massive bonus. According to the h’cappers ratings her mount RIO DANCER 4KG in hand of DREAM WITH YOU, and tun you get to add the allowance. Last july the selection won a h’cap by 3L on good/soft, and when last seen in march he wasn’t beaten far off a mark of 33.5. This fella likes to race prominently, a tactic which suits a track like this.
PREMIUM PICK - Most of the Danish Superliga games have been saved for tomorrows bank holiday, so for today w just have this one match available! From the 168 matches played to date, 82 (48.8%) where won by home sides. However, just 2 of the 9 games behind closed doors ended in home wins! Esbjerg are certainly going to be involved in the relegation group, so now it’s just a question of can they take more points from the remaining two games to take with them. The probable answer is probably no, and that’s especially the case against todays visitor Aalborg. For this match, the visitors won’t have available Tom Van Wert. On a more upbeat note, top scorer Lucas Andersen is set to return. The injury situation has improved for the team coached by Jacb Friis, because now he just has Magnus Christensen and Rasmus Thelander sidelined. What we can say about AaB is they are a free playing team, and 9 points from the last 4 games has taken them into the Championship group (top 6) part of the table. Earlier on in the season Esbjerg where played off the park by todays opponent, and if anything the 4-0 scoreline was lenient. It’s somehow strange to believe that EfB finished last season third, because now they are playing like a team who belong in a lower league. That was the situation two seasons back, and the only way they will save themselves this time around is to get through the inevitable relegation play-offs! AaB look good to go!
BEAUTE POUR TOI looked good in winning her maiden, but the form hasn’t been satisfactory tested. In fact, the only runner to come out of that debut race and go again was 6th placed CALINE, all she could do was finish ninth. Considering the higher grade these odds are short. CHORBA finished behind a 38 rated winner last time out, that’s clearly not good enough. Just 18 days ago GOLDEN CROWN finished in front of BIONIC WOMEN, i see no reason for these odds or the turnaround!
I’m down to two in this race, and they are NOW WE KNOW and VEDELA DREAM. Putting first time cheekpieces on the latter suggest she was looking around when finishing 4th on her debut. Her mark for that race would be 32.5, and receiving 1.5KG from the males tells us she should be thereabouts. However, NOW WE KNOW ran to 36.5 in his last race, a 3kg improvement from his debut. Truillier takes off 2.5kg, so he’s certainly got a bit in hand!