MOISES HAS was 9L in front of FOR FUN when they last met over 3600M here, suffice to say the grey has his measure. GANT DE VELOURS will find this tougher, and it’s WANT A NALL for us. The filly is giving a kilo away to the males, but she’s a class act with a lot more to come. In fact, she won her last race which was a chase, and that was despite making several mistakes. Back over hurdles and with Felix De Giles reunited she looks a good thing!
PREMIUM PICK - Prior to the enforced break Monchengladbach played a game behind closed doors, and the result was a 2-1 win over Köln. We can’t say Borussia dominated that match, and maybe they where guilty for sitting deep at 2-0. All the same, the team coached by Marco Rose got the job done, so it was another three points in the bag. The visitors definitely have one of the brightest young squads in the Bundesliga, and they are just 3 places and 6 points off leaders Bayern. We should also add they have a close to clean squad, and the majority of players know they will be with the club next season! Playing behind closed doors could also take a bit of pressure from the Gladbach strikers, and on that note they have plenty of talent to get the job don! Eintracht where expected to be fighting for the European places, instead they are just 6 points above the relegation zone. More worrying for the visitors is a lack of consistency, and what about that most recent 0-3 defeat by Basel (Europa league). On that occasion they where favourites to progress by the Swiss team, but instead they wilted in an empty stadium! While we trust Gladbach, it’s probably prudent to take the draw no bet!
SEDUCTION must have a chance, but jockey bookings surprise me a bit. I should also say she’s not the odds those useless UK bookies are suggesting, she should be double them! KATY LOVE is another worth a mention, but one i like a lot is ZIALIGHT. I thought her jockey buggered it up last time, so hopefully he would have learnt from that. The other positive is she doesn’t get any extra weight for that 2nd place, that also helps the cause!
PREMIUM RACING PICK - We have been mopping up this week on French racing. In fact, we have had one bookie account closed and another 4 limited. Fortunately for us their are plenty more of them available to us!! From the morning session (much bigger bets tonight and with bigger odds) SUJET LIBRE is the one i bet with most money. Jean-Claude Rouget had a couple of winners now, and this strong traveller is being dropped in grade. In my opinion Soumillion was guilty of getting beat on the selection in the Prix Rochelet, albeit it was another good effort. It’s good to see Demuro is now the trainers first choice jockey, and they should have a big morning. In my opinion talking horse ARAPHO is being over rated, but he still loos 2nd best!
We bet this in Italy with Snai and Betflag at 3.35 ——— It’s easy to X half the field! BLUE BLUE EYES is a genuine type at the right level, he should be in the three. The trainer might be too ambitious with his claiming request on OYAMBRE. To be honest the only other one i looked at compared to the selection was BABAR, with the main reasoning being he won all three races first time up. However, he’s giving 3kg to MADE TO LEAD, and if this was a h’cap he would receive 7kg. The weights favour MADE TO LEAD a lot, and Soumillion is not riding for the fun of it!
Judged on her hurdles form FERRONIERE would have a big chance. Switching to fences at Auteuil so quick suggests she’s a natural jumper, albeit in my opinion she’s a bit small for the really big fences. With that said, Compiegne isn’t a difficult jumping track, so i would expect her to place. For the winner I’m with Ann-Sophie Pacault and FIDELE AU POSTE. The 5 year old goes well fresh, and he won a listed h’cap hurdle off a mark of 66. Suffice to say, transferring that level to fences will make him hard to beat. And, while he made a couple of mistakes on his chasing debut, he should have learnt from that! PS - DOCTOR SQUEEZE wouldn’t be my idea of a natural chaser.
Despite not being able to claim the girls allowance, Rouget putting his faith in lady jockey Coralie Pacaut for the ride on ALZIRE. She won’t let the four year old down, and she could certainly place. Soumillion seems to prefer last years winner SPINNING MEMORIES. On that occasion Pascal Bary’s filly won this with a bit to spare, and this time around she doesn’t have to carry the extra 1.5KG. However, start box 14 over 7F is far from ideal, and her most recent (march) effort left a lot to be desired. WASMYA is going from strength to strength, and she’s got Pierre Charles Boudet to help her out. This strong traveller has a perfect sit, so we are taking her to cover the 1.5KG.
Won both his races to date, and h’capper raised him 10kg for this. Nevertheless, the way he won that last race suggests he’s got a massive amount in hand of this mark today. That auction race he won was worth 55k to the winner, so just hoping the trainer wants to play ball for the 11250 today!
Andreas Wohler’s QUEEN’S CROWN is being banged off the board. Believe me when i say many stable debutants from this trainer often need a run, and she is drawn outside. SEA OF LOVE made a solid debut at this track last season. He comes from a stable which had two winners on day one, and she wasn’t beaten far in a listed on her only other run. NEW HERZBERG is a debutant who is interesting on paper, but her stable didn’t fire yesterday and Andreas Starke is becoming expensive to follow!
No spectators! When these two teams met in the first fixture last season, Jeonbuk started at odds of 1.70 and took a lead on 2 minutes. However, the champions failed to build on that early goal, and on 70 minutes Taggart scored an equaliser. Later on in that campaign the hosts managed a 2-0 home win, and they scored both of those goals from just three shots on target. Jeonbuk managed to win the last three championships, and also 5 from the last 6. With that said, they only won 19 from 33 games of which 10/17 where at home. Based on what we have been analysing, we see no betting advantage in the match odds. However, we believe betting over 2.5 goals has plenty of leverage, because normal expectancy would be higher than the bookmakers are at. Here is the thing, we don’t have a great deal of ‘’ghost match data to go on. However, if we take into account no spectators allowed at matches over the past 5 years, teams are scoring more!
According to the h’capper BUSTED ICE has 3.5KG to find with SOMMELIER, suffice to say it’s difficult to understand why the bookies have the first mentioned shorter in the betting. Markus Klug’s gelding did let down a bit in Munich, but it rained that day and the ground seemed to work against him. Prior to that he had run two solid races on good ground, and since then he’s changed stable. With ARTISTICO returning from a close to 2 year lay off, this could be the day!
NORDINSKY should be in the top three, but winning is something else. WISSUM is penalised, and his regular jockey prefers FREE LIPS. This one is first time in a h’cap, and a GAG of 68.5 is hardly terrifying. In fact, based on his debut 3rd to listed placed Democracy he could be thrown in, and he did win his only other race. Weight for age allowance is another factor, so fitness is the main challenge!