CHAGAL is available at 5’s with the German bookies, he’s clearly no value with UK operators giving bets odds 7/2. ORIENTAL DREAM will appreciate this better ground. He ran well on his only run to date, and according to our contact man he’s been training like a good one! Those odds of 5/2 are bigger than he will start!!
NAMOS was available at 3/1 last night with Bet365, and i must admit i contemplated taking those odds. However, the only reason would have been to sell them later, because he’s got the extra kilo and needed his first run last year. BIG BOOTS was claimed out of a (good quality) French seller, and he’s improved since racing for new connections. In fact, he finished in front of the fav in Baden Baden, and he’s a kilo better off. However, the one i like is MAJESTIC COLT, because he should have more to give and h doesn’t have much to find at these weights. In any case, he won first time up last year, and Wohler should have him fully fit!
3 year old CPL DIONICIO knows how to win, albeit Gerald Bennett’s gelding hasn’t beaten much. If you take THE KAHN has a yardstick, not much between WHAT A HOOT, SUNSHINES OUT and OSVALDO. CIRCLE AWAY doesn’t have the best win record, but he seems honest and that recent 2nd place is the best on show.
Maybe you remember FASHIONS STAR running for Roger Charlton. For those who don’t, she won first time up at Newbury before disappointing next time out. Her debut odds suggested she was highly regarded by connections, and interesting to see the owner bring her back to the States. In any case she’s joined a top barn in Claude R McGaughey, and the trainers horses (4 from last 5) are winning. While the opposition is respectable, this is a filly with plenty of scope and she should have too much about her!
To be honest i won’t be looking past the favourite HOPEFUL GROWTH. She travelled strongly last time out and this step up in trip is ideal. Furthermore, the opposition doesn’t inspire much confidence, and that recent win of GOGO SHOES was down to getting a clear and first run. In her next race she was beaten a long way, so limitations are assured!
I’m missing something with OLD FORT, i just don’t get why he heads the market. He was ridden along last time for most of the race, and if anything RIONERO was closing him down at the end. That one didn’t get the clearest of runs, and ANALYZEYOURVISION finished ahead of both. Visually i'm with
This is a really crap race, and it doesn’t matter how hard you look it comes down to two! I say that because WOWZA MAN has never got near, whereas both JUST SHOOT ALREADY and HAPPY GUY deserve something. The first mentioned didn’t run his race last time, but i still get a feeling that the HAPPY GUY is more reliable. Three races back he was in the lead long enough, and at least he put his head down when it came to a fight. ps - I would be very suspect about a debuting 4-y-o, so no ALVARADO!
DIG IN doesn’t have the best of win records, so i’m not going to get excited about the 5/2. TEMPLE MOUNT seems to save his best for sloppy conditions, no rain forecast today! PRISON PADRE gets a simple no, and DONNIE BRISCOE is becoming very awkward. SOMETHING BIRD used to be rated 30 pounds better than now, and he hadn’t raced for a year before making his recent comeback. His effort that day to finish a solid third was better than anticipated, and he will clearly benefit from the step up in trip. It’s simple, a similar level to last time will suffice, that’s the bet!!
I wouldn’t want to consider anything with a higher draw than 8, and i would be sceptical about anything over 6. Easy to understand why BE READY is favourite, he finished a strong closing 2nd in his last race. With that said, LARSON won easily enough, and he’s only 3 pound better off with that runner. Furthermore, i’m not convinced Zac Purton’s mount is pacey enough to utilise a good draw. VICTORY IN HAND often leads at 6F, so dropping him back to 5F from stall one ticks the right box. However, while some might argue a five pound claimer is a positive, i totally disagree in a sprint like this. All arrows point to 3 year old FLYING GENIUS. While last time out he had no chance against BALTIC SUCCESS, that one looks a much improved runner. Karis Teeton’s mount is best at the 5F, and he’s got a bit more to give!
KID BOURBON travels like a decent horse, but he’s been found wanting at the end of his races. Recent efforts don’t amount to anything near his rating, so it’s OVERDELIVER for us. The selection gave himself too much to do last time out, and even based on that he holds GUMP and COOL BOBBY. The trip shouldn’t be an issue, and the right man is on board!
We have made two bets in this race, with 2/3rds of our stake going on ZALZA. The later is back with the trainer who got the most out of him, and along with that he’s reunited with his winning jockey. Back in september he was super impressive in winning a better race than this, and dropping to 6F is ideal. DR HARLAN is well drawn, and he’s no 16/1 shot. On january 16th this fella went from last to first, that’s hough for us to take these odds!
Most of our big bets to date are at Tampa Bay Downs this evening, but we have bet 4 in Gulfstream Park. The 2nd race looks very winnable, and GRAN CAUSEWAY appears to be running into form. Last time out he stayed on stronger than LUCKYTOBEINAMERICA to finish a close 2nd to FOLLOWHISFOOTSTEPS. That’s hardly surprising for a gelding who has won two races over a furlong further. At least we know he wants it, and that’s half the battle in races like this. FIVES WILD is dropping in class, he’s the only one we don’t know much about!