We have some bigger odds bets today. While this isn’t one of them, we believe their is a lot of value in this bet! BALLYFARSOON ran well on his only hurdling attempt. However, he’s a seven year old with a flat rating of just 54, so it’s hard to get excited about his chance. The penalty is likely top count against SONIC, so he’s easy to take on. Two questions with regards to THOSEDAYSAREGONE. The first is will he like the fast ground, and the other is what was that last run worth. Depending how you read into that effort, he could be marked up or down. In any case, we are taking him on with 113 rated ICEFALL. Tim Easterby’s five year old has taken well to hurdles, and he’s been begging for this step up in trip!
We didn’t want to add a free PREMIUM football bet for tonight, but we don’t have time to write up any free bet ———— Here’s hoping you benefit, massive week of football ahead and we are good to go!! ——— Sampdoria won this fixture (2-0) last season. During the same campaign the hosts took 39 points at home (3rd best), that compared to 15 for Spal. As it stands, the visitors are one point and one place above Marco Giampaolo’s side, albeit they lost 2/3 games (Torino 1-0 + Fiorentina 3-0) on the road. So far this season, La Samp are just 1-1-1 at the Luigi Ferraris. Nevertheless, that win was against Napoli (3-0) and the draw with talented Fiorentina (0-0) were great results. In the last round (here) Sampdoria lost to a 94th minute winner from Inter Milan, and a draw would have been a fairer result. Since then a draw in Cagliari would have been a win had Kownacki scored a 94th minute penalty. Neither coach can complain about missing players. For the record, Sampdoria won’t have Regini and Sapanora, they played two games between them this season. Viviani and Kurtič are missing for the visitors, the latter started in six games. All in all, the hosts are tough nuts at home. And, while they have been unfortunate in a few matches, luck will balance out. We should also add Spal are not Inter, Fiorentina or Napoli, so this should be easier!
RACING PREMIUM APPLICATIONS CLOSED ------ Free tip on us ——— MOTUEKA is in great form, he’s with the right trainer and champion jockey Richard Johnson is in the saddle. However, if this were a h’cap he would be 5 pounds better off with SUPER SCORPION, and Debra Hamer’s runner has a useful seven pound claimer in the saddle. Suffice to say, giving 13 pounds won’t be easy, so it’s more a question of will the 8 year old be fully wound up. EN MEME TEMPS is a bit of an unknown, but he will certainly need to do better for the transition to hurdles.
The Chiefs made a big move in the offseason trading away long time starter Alex Smith in favour of 2nd year pro Patrick Mahomes and thus far it has paid dividends as they are off to a blazing 3-0 start. Furthermore, the Chiefs and Mahomes have won in style with a high powered aerial attack, averaging a league high 39.3 points per game though to be fair, they have had favourable matchups against poor defenses. It's important to point out that the Broncos aren't the shutdown defense of years past but their pass rush is still formidable and their secondary has been vulnerable but should be an upgrade over the likes of the Steelers and the 49ers. The Broncos have had mixed results in the first 3 weeks of the season as they labored in wins over the Seahawks and Raiders before being throughly dominated at Baltimore. A major point of focus has been the overall poor play of Case Keenum who hasn't thrown for a touchdown in the last 2 weeks with 2 interceptions and barely eclipsing 400 passing yards total. Keenum's knee has been an issue since Week 2 but he did practice in full all week and is slated to be the starter. However, TE Jake Butt was placed on IR leaving Keenum without one of his reliable targets and there are some injury concerns on the defensive side of the ball with Tramaine Brock, Adam Jones and Brandon Marshall all listed as questionable. On the Chiefs side, CB Eric Berry is doubtful with a heel deformity. The Chiefs defense has been an afterthought with the historic numbers put up by their offense but it has indeed been a liability both against the run and against the pass. However, Keenum has regressed this year and with some limited mobility and injury to his TE coupled with a dangerous Chiefs' pass rush, we don't see too much offensive success for the visiting team. The Chiefs should get their share of points but with the Broncos' familiarity and now 3 weeks of tape on a highly systematic offense, we believe the hosts should be able to limit their output somewhat. 55 is an incredibly high total for the NFL and a key number as well so with all things considered, we can only see one way to bet this!
In the first round, Donna Vekic made Maria Sakkari look very average. With that said, the Greek girl never got going, and Vekic seemed to benefit from her off-day. What we can say is the good looking Croatian is playing to a fair level, and a rank of 40 appears about right. Ons Jabeur is a much better player than her rank of 113 suggest. The problem with the Tunisian is she tends to lose focus, and it's this issue which is stopping her progress. With that said, Jabeur looked fantastic in beating both Puig and Maria. And, in the last round she must have thought christmas had come early, because she got past world number one Simona Halep. The 24 year old beat her opponent when they last met, and she's certainly got the game to do it again. Nevertheless, lets take the start!
Petra Martic leads head to heads 2-1, and she's already beaten Barbora Strycova this year. That two setter was at in Indian Wells, and while it was quite a close match, Martic was the deserved winner. The thing with Strycova is she's very reliable, and her level rarely varies. On a positive note the Czech girl usually beats players she should, but on a negative she doesn't have the game to surprise. Martic on the other hand is less consistent, but she's got more talent than her opponent. If the 27 year old brings her A-game this could be straightforward!
PREMIUM BET - We also have two max BETS for subscribers (sent), so big day ahead. We would write join premium bets, but we don't take newbies once games kick-off! (so better plan on next week!)-------It’s all going very wrong in Groningen, although their demise started a long time back. In the last round, The Pride Of The North had two players sent off, and missed a penalty against AZ Alkmaar (1-3). However, despite those unfortunate occurrences, the scoreline suggested they played better than they did. Rest assured, the only reason the hosts got let off so light was the opposition missing some very easy chances. In any case, Groningen are bottom of the table and going nowhere fast. Utrecht have had a really poor start to their campaign, and they are probably not the most reliable team. With that said, under the capable guidance of Dick Advocaat, we expect the visitors to bounce back. What we do know is Utrecht have much better players than their opponent, and their have been excuses for recent league performances. Losing in Feyenoord is hardly an unexpected occurrence, and prior to that a red card before half time didn’t help. Utrecht did at least bounce back to win a cup game in midweek, and they appear in better shape with team news.
FREE BET - You can never be adamant about anything in this league, because things can change on a whim. We should also add that we are not at all keen on the usage VAR in the Bundesliga, especially since it's being over used. With all that said, we are keen to profit out of this seasons Bundesliga, and it's so far so good. Traditionally speaking Augsburg can be tough to stop at home, while Freiburg tend to struggle on the road. Recent results might suggest the visitors are the form team, while the hosts are struggling. However, like we often mention, near results mean less in sports modelling, and our software is telling us Augsburg are great value here! The other thing we should mention is the Freiburg have several doubtful starters, and if they don't line up things will be easier for the home side!
The Steelers picked up their first win of the season last week as they downed the upstart Buccaneers 30-27 but not before withstanding a furious 2nd half rally after leading by 20 points in the 2nd quarter. QB Ben Roethlisberger played at an elite level completing 30 of 38 passes for 335 yards and 3 touchdowns but their ground game stalled for just 78 yards on 22 carries. The Ravens were impressive in their Week 3 win over the Broncos as QB Joe Flacco wasn't too efficient with 25/40 passing but was able to stretch the field a bit, something that's been sorely lacking the last few seasons. The Steelers still have one of the best QB and WR combinations in the game with Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown but the off-field issues persist and their passing defense has turned into a complete liability. The Ravens look to be the more balanced team with a defense in the top 10 in efficiency metrics against both the run and the pass. The ground game has gotten off to a slow start but we believe the Ravens will look to attack the poor Steelers' secondary that's struggling to cover and furthermore leads the league in penalties. Ravens LB CJ Mosley is expected back for the visitors after missing the last 2 games and LB Terrell Suggs and T Ronnie Stanley are questionable. For the Steelers, S Morgan Burnett is doubtful but they will get offensive linemen David DeCastro and Marcus Gilbert back after the pair missed last week's matchup against the Bucs. This is a highly competitive series between division rivals and it's always one that Ravens coach John Harbaugh prepares for extensively. We believe this along with Flacco's experience winning at Heinz Field will make the difference here against a Steelers team that's going through a lot of distractions at the moment. However, with Joe Flacco being one of the most consistently inconsistent quarterbacks in the league, this turns into an all or nothing proposition in our opinion and so we believe the moneyline is the proper way to bet this game!
The Giants came through for us last week as they won outright against the Texans on the road 27-22 as 6 points underdogs. We mentioned that QB Eli Manning might have an easier time on the road and he delivered, completing 25 of 29 passes for 265 yards with two touchdowns. Back at home, Manning has typically struggled under the bright lights but we believe he should have some success here against a Saints defense that looks to have regressed after showing much improvement a season ago. CB Marshon Lattimore is no longer a shutdown corner and has frequently been caught gambling while PJ Williams and Ken Crawley haven't provided any answers with Patrick Robinson remaining out. The Giants will miss DE Olivier Vernon along with TE Evan Engram but we believe the Giants still have enough weapons with Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepherd and Saquon Barkley out of the backfield to put points on the board. On the other side, Saints QB Drew Brees shows no signs of slowing down at age 39 but their ground game seems to have disappeared forcing his team to be more one-dimensional. The Giants pass defense has shown to be better than average and elite corner Janoris Jenkins should provide a good matchup for Michael Thomas. The Saints will likely pile on the yards through the air but the lack of presence of a running game and a regressed defense should allow the Giants to keep this close in our opinion!
The Dolphins are the surprise leaders of the AFC East as they enter this game at a perfect 3-0 albeit against weak competition thus far. The Patriots, meanwhile, dropped their 2nd game in a row last week as they lost outright to the Lions as touchdown favourites to follow up a defeat the Jags the week prior. The Patriots have perennially been the class of the league with head coach Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady at the helm but we believe there is simply too much to overcome right now with a below average defense and no receiving threats outside of Rob Gronkowski who opponents have frequently double and triple covered. Chris Hogan and Cordarelle Patterson possess some speed but show little ability to get open and recent acquisition Josh Gordon is still very limited with an injury and inability to pick up the playbook. The Dolphins look like a team on the rise behind terrific young head coach Adam Gase who's instilled a winning culture in the locker room and has slowly built the team over the last few seasons to specifically compete with these Patriots. QB Ryan Tannehill has been playing at an elite level with a 73% completion rate and a solid backfield of Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore should provide a balanced attack against a Patriots defense that was gashed by the Lions last week. Gase is known to be a fiery coach and frequently gameplans heavily in matchups that carry meaning on a personal level. The Patriots have dominated the AFC East for over a decade and virtually every foe for that matter but they are quite vulnerable here in our opinion and should be ripe for the upset. Those not averse to some risk should look to the moneyline (3.40) but for the purposes of this bet, we'll play it safe with the points!
Sloane Stephens was knocked out in the first round of Wuhan by Anett Kontaveit, so she will be hoping to build on that here. In fact, the 25 year old will be trying to make the cut for the end of season championship, so she will need to improve her rank from 9. If we go back to 2017, the American lost in the first round here to Christina McHale. And, in 2016 she didn’t play following August, and in 2015 she was sent packing by Svetlana Kuznetsova. You actually need to look back to 2013 to see Stephens play alright at this time of the season, and even then she wasn’t overly impressing. The worry with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is she played well in Wuhan, and she doesn’t always follow up. When these two met in 2015 the match ended 6-1 6-1 for Stephens, so that could be another mental obstacle. Nevertheless, at these odds we have to take a chance on the Russian!