Saint Louis has shown to be a team to watch this year as they've made a nice turnaround in Travis Ford's 2nd season as the Billikens' head coach. The Billikens are a below average 3-4 in conference play but have at least been competitive in all games but 1 and are 5-2 ATS against A-10 opponents. VCU sits at 4-3 in conference play and are coming off a nice 87-63 win over George Washington on Saturday. While we agree that the Billikens should be favorites in this spot, we believe the number has drifted a bit too much out to 3.5. The Billikens do have a very good defense but their scoring is much too inconsistent and we can't trust them to cover anything more than a few points. The Rams like to push the pace and tend to struggle against other similar teams with good shooters. The Billikens would love to get some revenge as they've lost the last 6 meetings but it won't be easy and will likely come down to the final possession.
These teams enter this game with similar records with UNLV at 14-5 and Fresno St at 14-6. They've been similar in conference play as well with the Rebels at 3-3 and the Bulldogs having played one more game at 4-3. Both teams have also been the bane of gamblers as UNLV has failed to cover in their last 9 games and Fresno St has just 1 in their last 8. Nevertheless, it's the Rebels we're backing tonight as they bring the superior defense and should have the advantage on the boards as well. These teams know each other well and the Bulldogs have had the Rebels' number the last few years but we believe the Rebels have the superior team this time around and should keep this within the number!
Alabama has been on a roll as the Avery Johnson's squad has won 4 in a row and are 5-2 in the ultra-competitive SEC. For Ole Miss, it's been a lot of outperforming the market with ATS covers but the Rebels are treading water at 3-4 and have dropped their last 2 games to Texas A&M and Arkansas. The Crimson Tide bring a top 30 defense to this game and their scoring has improved during their win streak, and against very good defensive teams such as South Carolina and Auburn. We rank the Rebels' defense in the bottom half of the nation and aside from home court, we can't identify any other advantages for the hosts. There is an injury concern for the Tide as leading scorer Collin Sexton is questionable with an abdominal injury. However, Alabama has shown they can win without him, even taking down Auburn last week and despite averaging 19.3 pts/game, we believe the Tide's defense is a bigger factor and Sexton's production can be replaced adequately were he to be unable to go tonight. Alabama to win their 5th in a row!
The Huskies enter this game at 2-4 in conference play and tied for last place in the MAC West. The Falcons play in the MAC East and are in a logjam for 2nd place at 3-3 behind Buffalo's perfect 6-0. The Falcons already won the reverse fixture earlier in the year 66-57, withstanding a late charge from the Huskies. The Huskies have been much better at home and in fact their last 4 wins have all come at Dekalb but are just 4-6 in that span. Nonetheless, the Falcons have been equally adept on the road, notching a 6-2 record away from home and are leading the MAC in rebounding, pulling down 39.0 boards per game. Despite the Huskies home successes, the Falcons are the better team across the board and have proven to be good travelers. Falcons get the season sweep!
The thing that speaks against Sachia Vickery is her horrible 0-4 head to head with Evgeniya Rodina. Vickery also showed her inconsistent side during the qualification stages of the Aussie open, because she lost then to a moderate Lesley Kerkhove. However, go back to the season opener in Aucland when she made the SF after battling through 3 rounds of qualifications. Afterall, she beat Radwanska, Cepede Royg and Lauren Davis to make the SF, that’s great form in context to this tournament. Rodina is very average at best, and if Vickery is firing this is a two setter!
Two from two free bets won yesterday, and another 2/2 Buffet bets won for subscribers. What differentiates Paid bets to Free bets is value margins, like we saw with Victoria Duval (2.38 yesterday). If you want to get the hot tennis bets get over to Elite or Buffet and subscribe! Daniele Siguele does alright at the right level and she qualified well here. Having had a hit at this tournament would have given her a feel for the court, and it’s that which could bolster her advantage against a non too reliant Carol Zhao. The 22 year old Canadian has been struggling since winning Shenzhen, and her form overall is patchy.
GOING NATIVE is in good hands and his young jockey will take off a valuable seven pounds. Olly Williams runner was also dropped 2 pounds by the h’capper, albeit that’s because he ran to a lesser mark. With that said the big negative for us is the mile trip has he’s a 7F horse in our heads. IMPERIAL RED could go better now handicapped, although the handicapper appears to have built-in a few pounds cushion. Their should be more to come from fairly treated ISOLETTA, and the filly should be suited by the change of surface. Good apprentice taking off 3 pounds is an added incentive.
DON DES FOSSES won his point to point maiden in good fashion, but on what we know 8/11 appears short. SECRET LEGACY was a little disappointing on his hurdling debut in Ireland, and we worry about him having been with Gordon Elliott. Afterall, if connections were willing to let him go maybe he lacks scope. Kim Bailey has a good eye for a good deal, and he might have got one in ROSMUC RELAY. This fella is from a very good family and he should do much better now that he’s in the hand of a pro.
If you want the bets with the big juice you can subscribe to our elite service. You should take note that horses we put up for free fall a little short of required odds/value. Nevertheless, we expect them to outperform the market . DESTRIER ran to about 122 when winning on his hurdling debut at Leicester. Two things make us believe he’s beatable here, and they are a 6 pound penalty and the heavy ground. Afterall, his father was best on good ground and that’s what he won on at Leicester. KLARE CASTLE won two solid races in bumpers, and in the latter he split horses who went on to collect marks of 133 and 110 over hurdles. Suffice to say, if he can run between these figures on his hurdling debut he should win, and best of all he’s a scope type who should do even better at now he’s confronted by hurdles.
Ball St visits Kent St tonight for the first of 2 meetings between these MAC rivals over the next 3 weeks. The Golden Flashes were the MAC representative in the NCAA Tournament last year but have struggled to this year to the tune of 9-10 and a 3-3 record in conference play. Ball St made a splash this year with their massive upset over Notre Dame as 18 point underdogs they too own just a 3-3 record in conference play. Nonetheless, we are more impressed with the Cardinals this year despite their 4 returning starters underperforming from long range. An important factor to consider is that 2005 is the last time the Cardinals won against the Golden Flashes in this series which is quite a long time for conference rivals. However, this is the first time in a long time that Ball St will have the better team and we believe this is one they have specifically prepared for. It is in that regard we see their last game, a disastrous 71-53 loss to Miami (OH), as a positive as they were likely focused on tonight's game. We feel the hosts have gotten a bit lucky in close wins against Ohio and Western Michigan and believe they could easily be at the bottom of the MAC at 1-5! In any case, we have a suspicion the Cardinals find their stroke tonight against a poor defensive team!
After a poor start to the season, Davidson has picked it up in conference play with 5 consecutive wins after losing to Richmond in their A-10 opener. The Wildcats are coming off an impressive 83-73 win over St. Bonaventure on Friday. Dayton has been steady considering they have a new coach this year and complete turnover on their roster but are coming off 2 rough losses to St. Joseph's and Rhode Island. Despite this, we feel this Flyers team is starting to get it together and has faced some tough competition of late. On the other side, we're still a bit skeptical of the Wildcats as they haven't faced the toughest of opponents in conference play although we do have to credit them for their 10 point win against the Bonnies. Nevertheless, the Wildcats are a perfect 6-0 at home but a pedestrian 3-5 on the road and we feel this is a good spot to sell high on this team and buy low on the hosts. The only injury concern is Jordan Pierce for the Flyers as he has sat out the previous 2 games due to disciplinary issues but the big man's presence will be a bonus if anything!
It hasn't been a rosy start to the Big 12 season for TCU as they sit as just 2-6 after another close loss over the weekend, this time to Kansas St. On the other side, West Virginia took out their frustrations of back to back losses to Texas Tech and Kansas with an 86-51 drubbing of a short-handed Texas on Saturday. Nonetheless, the Mountaineers are still one of the best teams in the country and at 5-2 in conference play, should have more than a fair chance of winning the Big 12 despite being 1 game behind Kansas. The Mountaineers bring their aggressive pressing defense and are relentless on the perimeter and on the boards. The Horned Frogs have one of the best offenses in the nation but we feel they are outmatched here and have had issues closing out games on numerous occasions.