LONGCHAMP SPECIAL: 3 PREVIEWS & PICKS FOR FOLLOWERS. Arc Sunday is here, and we have a massive day of top-tier French action to get stuck into. I’m sharing 3 early picks with anybody who wants them!
While the eyes of the racing world are focused on the Bois de Boulogne, I’ve pinpointed three high-value betting opportunities across the Longchamp card—including our analysis of the draw biases, course mechanics, and where the market has got it totally wrong.
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Let’s dive straight into today’s picks!
LONGCHAMP SPECIAL: 3 PREVIEWS & PICKS FOR FOLLOWERS
RACE 2: FOLSOM BLUES (11/8)
It’s on record that Christopher Head said his unbeaten AVEC TOI is the best horse he’s ever trained. For me, he’s clearly very good, but that statement must have been made on the spur of the moment! An official rating of 50 and an all-out victory against IMPERIAL STRIKE last time out suggest he is going to need a whole lot more to lower the colours of FOLSOM BLUES.
The Joseph O’Brien-trained son of BLUE POINT was a super impressive winner of the Group 1 National Stakes, and his previous 2nd—when conceding 3lb to SUN GODDESS—was an exceptional effort. The colt is already rated 121, and with Mikael Barzalona taking over in the saddle, he stands out as a confident bet!
RACE 3: ARGENTINE TANGO (16/1)
This is the race I look forward to every single year!
Here’s the deal: the British punters on the track and betting into the World Pool tend to focus almost entirely on recent form figures, but that is rarely the best metric at Longchamp. I can’t think of many courses where the draw holds as brutal a bias as the middle-track 1000m sprint here. Unless the ground is very testing, those drawn high are at a major disadvantage.
I actually backed NAANA’S SHADOW at 16/1 when she won over course and distance last time out, and she won without fuss. However, that bet was based on her being drawn inside, bagging a soft lead, and knowing RAYEVKA was being totally overrated by the market. Today, she’s drawn in stall 14 of 15, which I consider an absolute disaster. In fact, the horse she comfortably beat that day, SHIRI, should easily reverse the form!!
To be analytical, plenty of the highest-rated runners are drawn wide today, suggesting the handicap of a high stall might be slightly less severe than usual. If that proves to be the case, RUMSTAR would be the one that interests me most. That said, even if the high-draw deficit is reduced from 5 lengths to 3, it still won’t be enough to win!
The improving MISS YECHANCE is drawn in the middle and is fast enough to get involved early, while on ratings and draw, MISSION CENTRAL might be slightly underrated—though recent efforts suggest he needs to be on a proper going day. COROLLA POINT isn’t out of it either, and I might take a saver on the Edward Bethell-trained 4-year-old.
As for my main selection, it’s 16/1 shot ARGENTINE TANGO, who ran far better than his finishing position suggested at the Curragh last time out. This fella has plenty of tactical speed to take full advantage of stall 3, and with his stable in cracking form and conditions to suit—why not!
RACE 4: MALTESE BOX (9/1 – Exchange Value)
I’ve already won one bet on DARYZ today—and that was that he’d be drawn in either stall 5 or 6! Amazingly, Mikael Barzalona’s mount was handed the perfect box in stall 5, which certainly enhances his claims.
However, while last year’s winner is a top-class performer, he’s ridiculously short odds to pull off the double. Let me put it this way: he only just scraped past MINNIE HAWK last season, and if anything, this year’s renewal is even deeper!
THUNDERING ON is well drawn in stall 3, and Joseph O’Brien booking Pierre-Charles Boudot is a sharp move. Since the filly won the Oaks, we know staying the distance won’t be an issue, and she arrives off a comfortable Group 2 win at the Curragh. With all that said, she faces a significantly higher caliber of opponent today, and I can’t see her winning it.
KALPANA has been given the ideal draw in 6—historically the most successful starting box in the race. She’s certainly a better mare than when disappointing in this last season, and conditions look spot on for her. To cut a long story short, she’s rightfully among the market leaders, but her current odds are just a bit too short for my liking.
MALTESE BOX has drawn stall 11—a gate no horse has won from since TONY BIN took the prize back in 1988. Nevertheless, I would far rather have my horse drawn there than out wide in 12 through 16, and based on pure form, it’s hard to understand why the market has drifted on him so heavily!
The son of SEA THE STARS has improved with every single run, and as a strong traveler, he will be ideally suited by the shape and tempo of this race. While Tom Marquand will need to deliver a top-drawer ride from that gate, his odds are considerably bigger than his actual chance!
