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ASCOT BANKER – BETTING TIP
ASCOT 1:30 COBBLERS DREAM 3/1
GOSHEN won 9 of his 23 races for Gary Moore. While three of those were on the flat, he’s 6 from 13 over hurdles.
For the record, the 6-year-old is rated 89 on the level, and significantly higher 157 over the sticks. Since this is a handicap, the son of AUTHORIZED is set to carry the same mark on his Chasing debut.
In analyzing, the handicap mark is one of the reasons why I want to take on the jolly. Also, I’m not convinced he will be a natural for chasing. The fences at Ascot are a real challenge, and giving 11 pounds to the others won’t be easy.
Because GOSHEN is compressing the handicap, the other three are set to carry between 3 & 6 pounds more than their allocated marks. Nevertheless, all have the potential to make into better chasers than they were hurdlers.
With that said, GOWEL ROAD was disappointing on his chasing debut. The runner that beat him that day was STATUARIO, and he won despite making loads of mistakes. Furthermore, after the Nigel Twiston Davies 6-year-old faded, he was 20L clear at the line.
Paul Nicholls is saddling the seven times race SAMARRIVE. The 5-year-old won 4 hurdles, and like today all were on a right-handed course. For the most part, a good case can be made for Lorcan Williams mount.
However, COBBLERS DREAM is the one that interests me the most. The Ben Case-trained 6-year-old started his racing career in a point-to-point. Since then he’s followed the traditional route of winning a bumper followed by 3 of his 7 hurdle races.
At the Cheltenham Festival, he ran a cracker to finish 2/23 to BANBRIDGE. While his next race is best forgotten, it can be forgiven because it came at the end of the campaign.
The selection won two of his races following a break, thus fitness won’t be an issue. Jack Quinlan is back in the saddle, and I expect him to show his scope by winning this 4 runner race.