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CHEPSTOW TIP – WEIGHT WINS
6:00 BIG BROWN BEAR 7/2
At the time of writing, both GRANNY BUDGIE & FOREVER DIAMOND are non-runners. That leaves 6-runners in this nursery handicap.
In my opinion, BAND OF JOY is high enough in the weights. While George Boughey’s filly won back-to-back races, she was given a 14-pound rating hike by the handicapper. Finishing a 3.75L second of ten to KELDEO wouldn’t be good enough, especially since the 3rd that day suggests he ran to around 78.
Michael Appleby has his string in excellent form, and he’s already been able to extract two wins out of EMINNY. However, while she’s dropping back down to handicap company, she needs further than this!
As for the early favorite CHINESE KNOT, she won’t necessarily be suited by the extra distance. Furthermore, carrying a 5-pound penalty is less than ideal because it means she will be giving even more weight to the selection.
To begin with, BIG BROWN BEAR is receiving 15 pounds and upwards from the principals. In fact, if we include Mia Nicholls’s 7-pound claim, that number increases to 22lbs+.
For the record, the selection comes from the in-form stable of Eve Johnson Houghton. The gelding is best served by 6F on easy ground, and he comes into this on the back of a solid 2/10.
Since the son of KODIAC should improve again, we just need Nicholls to keep him within shouting distance of his opponents. If she can, that weight concession will begin to tell!