Euro 2024 Betting Preview: Outright Winner. We sent this and two other tournament bets out earlier this week. We will send another 4-5 pre-event tips in the morning, and there will be match bets. Since we have a great record at tournament betting, we will be doubling up with our stake size. On that note, if you would like;

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Since 1960, the host nation has won the European Championships 3 out of 16 times. Apart from Greece in 2004 and Denmark in 1992, 8 of the last 10 tournaments have been won by top-five teams. Given this history, it’s hard to envision any of the 12 betting outsiders reaching the later stages of this tournament, so we won’t waste time discussing them.

A well-rounded Switzerland are available at generous odds of 80/1. While the Nati only qualified in second place behind Romania, they bring an experienced squad to the finals. Our only issue with the Swiss is they haven’t been great at converting goalscoring chances. For the record, Murat Yakin’s had the 3rd best XGD (1.69) in qualifying, so a 17-point haul from 10 games was a bit disappointing!

Team Austria, under the guidance of coach Ralf Rangnick, may lack superstars but boasts a cohesive starting XI. As for proof of concept, they recently defeated Italy and Germany in friendly matches. Although Das Team finished second in their qualifying group, just one point behind Belgium, the statistics suggest they would beat Belgium in a rematch.

On that note, we are sceptical about Belgium’s chances. Their ‘Golden Generation’ has failed to deliver, and coach Domenico Tedesco has controversially left a fit-again Thibaut Courtois out of the squad. While the Red Devils boast a capable front line with Romelu Lukaku, Kevin De Bruyne, Jeremy Doku, and Leandro Trossard, their defence remains a significant weakness.



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Germany is near the top of the betting market, but one has to wonder why. Being the host nation means they didn’t have to qualify, raising the question of whether this advantage is as significant as it seems. They haven’t played competitive football in over a year, and victories in meaningless friendlies don’t hold much weight.

While we respect Julian Nagelsmann as a coach, winning three of their four warm-up matches against Greece, France, and the Netherlands shouldn’t be overly emphasized. A closer look at the host’s squad reveals several issues. Nagelsmann’s squad is the oldest in the tournament and lacks a natural striker. Leroy Sane and Jamal Musiala had poor seasons at Bayern, Niklas Fullkrug only managed 12 goals for Dortmund, and the ageing goalkeeper Manuel Neuer has become a liability.

The Netherlands is expected to entertain but their team cohesion issues may hinder their progress. Also, Ronald Koeman doesn’t have the most convincing strikers, and they will be vulnerable at the other end.

In Euro 2024, Italy picked up the trophy after beating England in a penalty shootout. Subsequently, the Azzuri qualified for the finals by finishing 6 points behind the Three Lions after losing both fixtures against Gareth Southgate’s men! 

Luciano Spalletti inherited a squad that needs a revamp. If that wasn’t enough, being drawn into the group of death is enough for them to be overlooked. 

For a small nation, Croatia never ceases to amaze. With that said, the Blazers have performed much better in World Cups, and since this tournament expanded to 24 teams they have failed to make it past the round of 16. The other issue with the Croats is their top players are approaching the end of their careers!

If we were to bet on a country to average the most possession in this tournament, it would be Spain. La Roja will be well-prepared for the finals but rely heavily on their midfielders for goals. During qualification, Spain scored 25 goals, yet no individual player scored more than four.

According to player values, France has the second-best squad. Didier Deschamps is the most successful manager in the tournament, and Les Bleus boast many quality players. However, from a betting perspective, we rate France’s chances at 14.22%, equivalent to odds of 7.03. With the average available odds around 5.0, we can’t find value in betting on Deschamps’ men.

The same applies to England, which we rate with an 18.25% chance. We would need odds greater than 5.48 to consider betting, but the best available are around 5.00. Despite this, the Three Lions have the highest-valued squad in the tournament and will field a formidable attack and midfield.

Although England lost their last friendly match, they have become reliable in tournament football. An easy group stage will allow Southgate’s team to grow into the tournament, and on another positive note, they will have a strong bench. However, the negatives for England are the defence and the betting odds not meeting our requirements.

As for our idea of the winner, it’s got to be Portugal. Managed by Roberto Martinez, the Seleção dominated qualifying, winning all ten matches with a 36:2 goal difference. For the record, that 3.4 GPG was better than the XGD average of 2.94, thus suggesting they have the potential to score at a higher rate than expectancy.



Although the skipper is still available, Portugal is no longer Cristiano Ronaldo-centric. Moreover, all of Ruben Dias, Bernardo Silva, Rafael Leão, and Pedro Neto are capable of scoring, and coach Martinez has plenty of strength in depth in all departments.

As for our pick to win, it’s got to be Portugal. Managed by Roberto Martinez, the Seleção dominated qualifying, winning all ten matches with an impressive 36:2 goal difference. Notably, their 3.4 goals per game exceeded the expected goal difference (XGD) average of 2.94, indicating their potential to score at a higher rate than expected.

Portugal boasts a balanced squad and is no longer solely reliant on Cristiano Ronaldo, although he remains the team captain and a great influence. Incidentally, Ruben Dias, Bernardo Silva, Rafael Leão, and Pedro Neto are all capable of scoring, and Martinez has plenty of strength in depth across all departments.

In summary, we see plenty of value in betting on Portugal. Winning their Group would give the Seleção a good run to the final, at that stage, we have the option to cover.

BET: PORTUGAL (2-point win)

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