NEVER BE SCARED TO TAKE ON A SHORT-ODDS FAVOURITE!

Never Be Scared To Take On A Short-Odds Favourite! Betting is about the odds, in that everything has a price. I believe this gelding has a massive chance to turn over the jolly!

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NEVER BE SCARED TO TAKE ON A SHORT-ODDS FAVOURITE!

NEVER BE SCARED TO TAKE ON A SHORT-ODDS FAVOURITE!

PUNCHESTOWN 12:45 MONTY’S STAR 5/2

Betting is all about the odds, and I’m struggling to understand the discrepancy between the first two in the market!

Let me start by saying, 2.5 lengths is nothing in a 3-mile chase. Mistiming a fence or making a minor mistake is worth more than that distance. With plenty of obstacles in the way, taking odds of 2/5 about a novice chaser is bordering on crazy. Win or lose, this policy reaps rewards!

While THREE CARD BRAG finished a place and 2.5L lengths in front of MONTY’S STAR at Fairyhouse, making a mistake at the last and being squeezed up didn’t help the latter!

To be fair, in the main, both geldings jumped well on their chasing debuts. However, THREE CARD BRAG was allowed to dictate a slow pace, and having the first run helped him finish a place ahead of the selection!

From my trained eye, the Henry De Bromhead-trained 6-year-old needed the run. He seemed to be carrying a bit of extra condition, and when he started to tire, hanging-in behind the leader didn’t help his cause! Nevertheless, it was an effort full of promise, and this lightly raced individual can only benefit from the experience.

Some will point to the ground as being a questionable factor, but I can’t imagine it being an issue. After all, his sire was a strong stayer who was best on a testing surface, and on his dam’s side, such conditions should be a bonus.

Also, the selection is proven over three miles, and in hurdle races, he was rated a pound higher than his most obvious opponent. Since MONTY’S STAR only ran three times in that sphere versus six for THREE CARD BRAG, the argument is clear.

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