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3:40 JUAN DE MONTALBAN 7/2
There are just 6 runners going to post for this good prize. PROTECTED GUEST is out of form, and it’s hard to imagine him bouncing back today.
While JEREMIAH is a course & distance winner, a mark of 93 won’t help his chance.
MERLINS BEARD represents a stable in good form, and he won 5/13 races. However, over the past year, George Rooke’s mount went from a mark of 48 to 86. For now, the handicapper seems to have the 4-year-old measure, and since last running his jockey lost his 3-pound claim.
THE WHIPMASTER was well placed to win his last four races, but I have a few issues with the son of MASTERCRAFTSMAN. Firstly, while he won at 11.5F, that was at an easier track (Windsor) than this. I’m suggesting he would be better at 10F, while my other issues are the better race and his 6-pound higher mark. In short, he’s got an obvious chance, but it isn’t as good as his short odds suggest.
Harry Davies is back in the saddle on COMMONSENSICAL. If we go back 4 races, the leading apprentice rode him to win at Chepstow. Nevertheless, that was off a substantially (79) lower mark than he’s set to carry (92) today. Furthermore, his jockey lost 2 pounds of his claim, and he was beaten off this mark last time out.
I’m with Jack Mitchell’s mount JUAN DE MONTALBAN. While the 4-year-old was disappointing in his last race, he didn’t get the best of runs and the distance was too far. Previously, Kevin Philippe De Foy’s gel dinging ran away with a good handicap.
In fact, the son of LOPE DE VEGA won that 16-runner race by 3.75L, and it could have been further if his jockey had wanted. For the record, the 3rd, 4th, and 8th have won since, and that win was over this CD. Finally, with a bit of rain forecast, conditions should be ideal.