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1:40 LE CAMELEON 4/1
For this level, NORTHERN BOUND is (8/26) prolific. In fact, Ben Pauling’s 8-year-old won 6 of his 11 chase races, and he’s progressed 17 pounds higher in this sphere.
The favourite won his last race by 9.5L from another of today’s runners FAT SAM. The turnaround today is 9 pounds, thus they are weighted to finish close together. However, since NORTHERN BOUND won with a bit in hand, Luca Morgan’s mount should finish ahead of his opponent.
For the record, FAT SAM followed up with a disappointing 3/5 at Warwick. In that race, the 8-year-old looked quite difficult. In fact, Chris Down’s gelding needed to be walked into the start! To make a long story short, the son of DENHAM RED became disappointing.
Meanwhile, MARRACUDJA is more exposed than the others, and he’s been in decline for a while. At his best, the Dan Skelton-trained 11-year-old was rated 149, whereas, he will race from 125 today. Despite being attractively handicapped, recent efforts suggest he#s going to struggle.
GOLDEN TAIPAN won 7/31 races, and his last win was just 3 races back. In his next race, Fergal O’Brien’s gelding ran flat before finishing 7th/7. Subsequently, he was a fair 2nd of 5 over this CD, albeit he left the impression of being weighted to the hilt.
I’m recommending the youngest runner in the field, namely the Jane Williams-trained LE CAMELEON. The 7-year-old won 5/19 races, and he’s still fairly (126) treated. David Noonan knows him best, and the gelding has conditions in his favour. This race looks winnable, and fitness won’t be an issue.