Royal Ascot Day 1 Overlays: Finding the Early Value on the Big Stage
Royal Ascot, the World Cup, and Wimbledon—this is absolutely the dream time of the year for any sports bettor.
For anyone wanting access to all of our premium selections across horse racing, football, and WTA tennis for the next month, we are offering a special, one-off package for £200. Based on my experience, you can expect between 250 and 300 high-value picks over this period. This is a limited-time deal, and we only want to work with clients who properly understand the mechanics of professional betting—if that’s you, get in touch at admin@betting-analyst.com.
PS: We still post around 40 high-quality bets per month on the site completely free of charge, so there is absolutely no stress if you are operating at a lower stakes level!
In this update, I’m covering the first three races on the opening card at Royal Ascot.
Royal Ascot Day 1 Overlays: Finding the Early Value on the Big Stage
14:30 Royal Ascot – MORE THUNDER 9/2
NOTABLE SPEECH has won 8 of his 16 career starts, including last month’s Group 1 Lockinge Stakes. On official ratings, Charlie Appleby’s 5-year-old is the joint-best horse in the race. However, while he is undoubtedly a classy individual, his two previous runs over this course and distance were highly disappointing.
Appleby also saddles the second favourite, OPERA BALLO, who has won 7 of his 9 races to date. This second-string is improving with every single run, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he managed to beat his more fancied stable companion.
Last year’s winner, DOCKLANDS, goes incredibly well for today’s jockey Mark Zahra and is fully expected to run his race. At much bigger odds, ZEUS OLYMPIOS must have a live each-way chance, especially since he will absolutely appreciate the fast ground. The Karl Burke-trained 4-year-old will settle far better if his jockey can secure a bit of early cover, and he is well worth a side bet.
However, for my idea of the actual winner, I will be siding with MORE THUNDER. He is entitled to come on plenty for his seasonal reappearance, he was a massive improver last year, and under the expert guidance of William Haggas, he can prove to be a serious contender.
15:05 Royal Ascot – CUT A DASH 10/1
CONFUCIUS visibly progressed from race one to race two, but winning a standard maiden doesn’t mean he should be trading at such short odds for a high-class race of this nature. Interestingly, the stable’s apparent second-string, GREAT BARRIER REEF, actually holds a higher Racing Post Rating (RPR) and looks like the type to progress much further.
One thing is certain: the fast ground won’t be an issue for the Wathnan Racing-owned colt, RULER’S PRIDE. However, he looks to be the second-choice on jockey bookings, with James Doyle preferring to ride ROYAL HERITAGE. The Hamad Al Jehani-trained son of Blue Point landed the odds easily at Hamilton, but this represents a completely different test.
I readily prefer the Richard Hannon-trained CUT A DASH, who looked really smart when landing a decent-looking novice stakes at York. The faster ground won’t bother him, the extra furlong is a massive positive, and this son of Starspangledbanner has plenty more under the hood.
15:40 Royal Ascot – BIG MOJO 16/1 (20/1 on Exchanges)
If you take the time to watch the video replays of OVERPASS, you will see that he is easily fast enough to lead, but the way he stays on again at the finish strongly suggests he will ultimately need a bit further. The other Australian raider, ASFOORA, needs to bounce back to form after a couple of moderate runs for another trainer, but she is fully entitled to be competitive for a place.
NIGHT RAIDER seems to have progressed a fraction this season, but he is strictly held by a few of these on form, and I seriously doubt he is good enough to win a renewal like this. RAYEVKA won a very soft Group 3 at Longchamp, and I would be shocked if he managed to win this significantly deeper race. MISSION CENTRAL is clearly in great heart, but this is a major step up from the races he’s been winning lately.
AMERICAN AFFAIR is one that mildly interests me, but at much bigger odds, I want to chance BIG MOJO. While he was well beaten on his seasonal return, this 4-year-old is a lot better than that performance suggests. Crucially, he is a proven performer at this track and possesses the raw gears to win at the minimum distance. At the current prices, we absolutely have to chance the Michael Appleby runner.
WANT TO FIGURE OUT BETTING HORSES FOR YOURSELF?
Watch our YouTube video.
