Royal Ascot Day 4 Betting Previews & Picks: Unlocking Today’s value!
The opening three days of the Royal meeting have provided plenty of top-tier drama, but Friday’s card presents some of the most glaring market inefficiencies we’ve seen all week. From short-priced stable selectons that look vulnerable on the book to under-the-radar yard switches, we’ve unpicked three major angles where the layers have simply got the pricing wrong.
Here are the premium value plays for Day 4.
Royal Ascot Day 4 Betting Previews & Picks: Unlocking Today’s value!
14:30 Royal Ascot – SILENT BEAUTY 9/1
SUN GODDESS was sent off at 6/1 on her racecourse debut, which typically indicates she wasn’t completely tearing up the home gallops. While she did what was required to land a maiden on her second start, I’m not entirely convinced that this Aidan O’Brien-trained daughter of Sioux Nation should be heading the betting at such restrictive odds.
Karl Burke took this prize last year, and he clearly holds another live contender this time around in LIGHT OF DAWN. This daughter of Showcasing may have only won a four-runner minor event last time out, but the visual style in which she travelled suggested she could easily be up to this grade.
With that said, the value clearly lies with the Kevin Philippart de Foy-trained SILENT BEAUTY. As a yearling, this impeccably bred filly cost Amo Racing a cool €1 million. She absolutely bolted up to win her debut like a high-class prospect and is clearly ready for this swift step up in class. If this filly were housed in one of the powerhouse public yards, she would be trading at half these odds.
15:05 Royal Ascot – VENETIAN SUN 6/4
I would personally be offering ALBERT EINSTEIN at much bigger odds than the current market price; he looks far more exposed than most in this field and simply lacks the requisite top-end form to score at this level. Similarly, the O’Brien second-string CHARLES DARWIN appears to have clear limitations.
Conversely, I am convinced there is plenty more to come from COPPULL, and he is a must-include for any exotic permutations like the Jackpot or Placepot.
However, despite the competitive field size, I can really only envision one winner here: the exceptional filly VENETIAN SUN. Karl Burke’s charge has won five of her seven career starts, and her only defeats came when she was stretched over an inadequate longer trip. Crucially, she remains a perfect 4-for-4 over this 6-furlong distance and arrives here on the back of an incredibly impressive, three-length victory in a Haydock Group 2. Given she already boasts winning course-and-distance form, the only true danger appears to be traffic trouble. That said, she has already proven she can handle a big field by landing a 17-runner event, and the straight course at Ascot tends to provide a completely clean run.
15:40 Royal Ascot – WARRANT HOLDER 9/2
While he has shown definite signs of improvement, PLAGUE DE HAVRE now looks completely handicapped to the hilt. It is highly interesting to note that Watham Racing’s retained rider, James Doyle, has opted to partner HOPEWELL ROCK over OPPORTUNITY. In my book, the William Haggas-trained first choice should have no trouble finishing comfortably ahead of his stable companion.
If this contest were being staged over an extra two furlongs, I would have given serious consideration to EMIT. However, another massive negative for the Joseph O’Brien runner is the fast ground; despite a sliding mark, he looks completely up against it under these conditions.
John & Thady Gosden train WARRANT HOLDER for the King, and the four-year-old put in a highly progressive performance to win on his seasonal reappearance. He is open to significant safe improvement from that run. This son of Frankel should be even better suited by stepping up to 1m4f, provided he settles a bit better in the early stages. To that end, the scenario of a true-tempted, big-field handicap and the booking of William Buick are massive positives for his chances.
