SOUTHWELL PICKS: FREE NATIONAL HUNT WINNERS. Warm Up for the National Hunt Season (Starts Oct 9)
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SOUTHWELL PICKS: FREE NATIONAL HUNT WINNERS
14:50 – NO MORE NO (6/4)
PAPER MILL did well to win 7 from 14 in the point-to-point field, and since switching to rules he’s 1 from 5 over fences. That Uttoxeter win came off a mark of 107 on soft ground, though to be fair 5 of his P2P wins came on good ground like today’s. However, racing off 112 and laboring into 4th of 6 last time out suggests he’s up against it.
ALRIGHT DAI goes well fresh and won on his chasing debut, but a mark of 105 looks tough and his jumping needs polish. Following three disappointing efforts from recent runners, I’m not convinced the Bailey/Nicholls yard has their team fully tuned up yet. They also field LAW OF SUPPLY, who has dropped in the weights after a string of poor runs; while feasibly handicapped for his return, giving weight to the selection makes life hard.
While he disappointed on his final start last term, NO MORE NO is 3 for 3 at Southwell. The Lawney Hill-trained grey has had a wind operation since, and he’s only 2lb higher than when beating LIMERICK LEADER and HUCKLEBERRY SING over course and distance in June. Those two are now rated 12lb and 14lb higher respectively, rubber-stamping the form and making NO MORE NO look exceptionally well treated!
15:25 – IAMYOUARE (7/2)
When last seen, MOMENTS AWAY finished 5th of 20 in an Aintree Grade 2 bumper. If you take that form literally, it was an improved effort and suggests the 5-year-old could make a decent hurdler. However, he failed to win in 4 attempts in that sphere, and horses that linger in bumpers aren’t necessarily natural jumpers!
The Martin Keighley gelding is far too short for his hurdling debut, especially having to concede 7lb to the 109-rated mare IAMYOUARE. Donald McCain’s 6-year-old gets a valuable sex allowance, and following a solid 1.75-length 2nd to HOLY JOE SMOKE, her trainer applies first-time cheekpieces. Theo Gillard takes over in the saddle, and I’m expecting a big run.
16:00 – JURASSIC PARK (9/2)
CRAFTY GAEL was all out to win by a head from FOREST SPIRIT last time, form that looks purely average. Prior to that, Olly Murphy’s 7-year-old was winless in 17 starts, turned over as favourite on 5 occasions. While runners from this yard demand respect, skinflint odds of 13/8 look absurd in a competitive race, particularly carrying a 6lb penalty. To cut a long story short, I’d be delighted to lay him at those prices!
With no recent runners, it’s hard to gauge Sara Bradstock’s yard form, but we know her lightly raced mare JURASSIC PARK ran with real credit on debut last season. Starting the new campaign off a opening mark of just 97 is a huge positive, as are the step up in trip and Nico de Boinville taking the reins. Southwell’s padded hurdles are effectively mini-fences, which should play right into her jumping style!
