While the Fontwell card isn’t the most competitive on paper, I firmly believe we can unearth some serious value today by aggressively taking on a few vulnerable, short-priced favourites. In this betting preview, I’m sharing three of my early selections for anyone looking to play the markets intelligently.
If you are half-serious about grinding out a long-term profit from horse racing, you need to be looking at the game through a completely different lens than the casual public. I recently released a YouTube video breaking down exactly how to spot genuine value in these tighter fields and why the modern markets remain highly profitable if you understand how to look past the bookmakers’ inflated overrounds. Let’s get straight into the selections and see if we can catch the layers cold.
THREE QUALITY RACING PICKS FOR FREE: LETS GO!
FONTWELL 14:30 – ELATED 4/1
We start with a standard novice hurdle where Nicky Henderson saddles the early favourite, VISCOUNTESS NELSON. The question you have to ask yourself here is straightforward: would she have won her last race if she had been forced to carry a 7-pound penalty? The answer is almost certainly no. To score again today, the Seven Barrows mare has to give away significant weight to two unexposed maidens, and Fontwell represents a fundamentally different test to the track where she shed her maiden tag. While the ground and distance shouldn’t pose an issue, she looks far too short in the betting, and I am more than happy to take on the jolly.
As a 4-year-old, EVENING TESS receives an additional, highly useful age allowance of 6 pounds. Following a perfectly fair second-place effort last time out, this daughter of Dink, trained by Dan Skelton, is fully entitled to be competitive in a race of this nature.
However, I’m much more inclined to side with the Ben Pauling-trained ELATED. The 5-year-old mare is progressing nicely with every run and wasn’t beaten far at all by an expensive stablemate and heavy hotpot on her latest outing. While this daughter of Passing Glance will undoubtedly need to settle better in the early stages if she’s going to see out the extra distance today, I’m convinced she will do exactly that. She is bred for further, her stable remains in great form, and Ben Jones is a top-tier booking who will know exactly how to manage the fractions.
PS: ROYAL ASCOT EXCLUSIVE PICKS
I shouldn’t be giving them away, but i am! You can get our Royal Ascot picks exclusively by signing up to our Free Newsletter here!
FONTWELL 15:00 – WELLWILLYA 9/2
On to the handicap chase, where A LITTLE SOMETHING is bound to attract market support after winning her last race by a massive distance. However, a look at the tape reveals she is far from the most natural jumper of a fence. To be perfectly frank, she looks like the type to make an early mistake under pressure, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see her ruin her chances at the obstacles.
As for ATREIDES, he does tick the crucial course-and-distance box. In fact, after enduring a dismal 21-run losing streak, the 8-year-old suddenly bounced back to win back-to-back races. However, he has visibly struggled in three subsequent outings since those victories, and an official mark of 102 appears to be right at the limit of his handicapping capabilities.
While GORE POINT should eventually find an opening over fences, it is highly unlikely to come on a sharp, undulating track like Fontwell. DOCTOR GLIDE is an interesting contender on paper, arriving here on the back of consecutive victories in the point-to-point sphere. On the downside, an opening mark of 104 looks a bit too hefty for his rules debut.
Instead, I readily prefer WELLWILLYA. The Helen Nelmes-trained 8-year-old grey has taken a massive step forward since switching to fences. He is a proven performer around this tricky track, handles any ease in the ground, and can be completely forgiven his last run where he was badly impeded at a crucial moment. Regular pilot Paul O’Brien knows the gelding inside out, and this looks like a perfect opportunity for the grey to strike.
FONTWELL 16:00 – BALLYFIN 4/1
We close the card with a competitive staying handicap chase. SPECIAL JOHN has won three of his 11 career starts, including a solid victory in a 10-runner field last time out at Bangor. However, before that recent success, the 7-year-old had let down backers as a beaten favourite on three consecutive occasions—and those poor efforts came off significantly lower marks than the hefty burden he is set to carry today.
GATA BAN also comes here on the back of a recent win, having come good last time out at Worcester by dismantling a 10-runner field by 8.5 lengths. However, prior to that, she was comfortably beaten over this exact course and distance by one of today’s rivals, BALLYFIN.
While the Neil Mulholland-trained mare is theoretically one pound better off with that opponent today for a 4.5-length defeat, it is mathematically impossible to justify why she is trading as the tight 5/4 favourite while the Anthony Honeyball-trained gelding is cast out at a generous 4/1. While BALLYFIN was well beaten in his most recent start, he was severely disadvantaged by an ill-advised drop in distance that completely went against his stamina profile. Back up to a proper staying trip at a track he loves, we have to take a chance on the 8-year-old at those skewed odds.
