Top Picks for Friday’s First Three Races at Goodwood. We’ve had a brilliant week at Glorious Goodwood so far, and we hope to keep that momentum rolling firmly in our favor over the coming days. On this occasion, I’ve broken down my thoughts on the opening three contests on the card. However, for those of you actually taking the time to read through the analysis, I’ve included an extra bonus pick here (ASTRACORNUS 17:20)! Rewarding the readers and leave the lazy skimmers behind.
Here is the breakdown for Friday’s early action.
Top Picks for Friday’s First Three Races at Goodwood
13:50 — The Staying Value
The lightly raced Valiancy is an intriguing runner on his step up to 2m4½f, but odds around 3/1 feel far too unappealing in a competitive handicap of this nature. Believeitanducan arrives in electric form having won all three of his starts this season, most recently defying a 20-runner field at Newcastle by a comfortable length. As a proven, relentless stayer, Alan King’s five-year-old is fully entitled to be competitive again.
Defiantly is another who comes into the race on the back of a solid, consistent run. Given how well Joseph O’Brien targets these major UK festivals with his international raids, he has to be respected.
However, I prefer to dig a little deeper into the market and support the progressive ST MAWES. George Scott’s four-year-old carries just 8st 4lb today, which is always a massive asset over a grueling, extreme test of stamina. We know this son of Wootton Bassett is a strong-staying type, and the large field should help him settle much better in the early stages. Having already posted two solid efforts over the unique Goodwood layout, he clearly handles the track, and the jockey booking of Ray Dawson is a major plus.
The Verdict: Skip the short prices and back ST MAWES (9/1) to thrive under a light featherweight over the marathon trip.
14:25 — The First-Time Headgear Factor
While the cream usually rises to the top at these premier meetings, I am far from convinced that Talk Of New York should be trading as a short 4/9 favorite. While Charlie Appleby’s son of Wootton Bassett has been undeniably progressive, he wears a hood for a reason—he tends to pull hard in his races. Furthermore, he gives the impression he may need a stiffer test than a sharp mile, meaning there are a couple of very interesting alternatives in the lineup.
Yazin gets the headline booking of Ryan Moore and is clearly a much better horse than his latest effort suggested. It is worth remembering he was sent off at just 7/2 when facing Talk Of New York previously, yet today he is available at a proper working man’s price of 12/1.
That said, my main vote goes to SABER STRIKE, representing the red-hot stable of William Haggas. This son of Night Of Thunder looks like the exact type who will benefit enormously from the application of first-time blinkers, and his racing style strongly indicates he has been crying out for this extra furlong.
The Verdict: SABER STRIKE (17/2) looks primed to improve for first-time blinkers and the step up in trip.
15:00 — The Master Plan
If I were putting together a Placepot, Ebt’s Guard would be one of the very first names on the team sheet. The five-year-old is at his absolute best in high-tempo heritage handicaps of this nature and is already proven over this tricky course and distance. My only minor reservation with the Muir & Grassick runner is his somewhat frustrating win-to-run ratio.
By taking the automatic 3lb penalty for a recent win, Indalo remains 2lb well-in on official ratings. This lightly raced five-year-old clearly possesses the scope to go well again, but odds of 3/1 feel a bit skinny, particularly given his best career performances have come on stiffer, more conventional tracks.
To be completely honest, I knew what I was backing long before the final declarations were published, and that is TRIBAL CHIEF. In fact, I was quick to snap up the early price because this fella looks seriously well-treated on his peak form—provided he behaves himself at the stalls. David Menuisier’s five-year-old will get the race set up perfectly for his late-closing style, and there is no better jockey in the business to deliver a late, swooping challenge than the ‘head waiter’ himself, Jamie Spencer.
The Verdict: TRIBAL CHIEF (11/2) is primed to strike off a dangerous mark under a trademark Jamie Spencer hold-up ride.
