Top Racing Previews & Picks for Free: Including 11/1 Shot. We enjoyed a solid day at the office yesterday, landing two winners and two second-place finishes from our four selections. The one that cruelly got away from us was 8/1 shot Calico Blue, who did everything right to win his race on the far side of the track, only to be denied by Jazl, who clearly benefited from a golden highway on the stands’ side. Still, with both Point of Law and Nanny Park doing the business, we certainly can’t complain. As an act of good faith and to keep this momentum rolling, I am sharing another four premium selections exclusively with our website visitors today.
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Top Racing Previews & Picks for Free: Including 11/1 Shot
York 14:45 — FITZELLA (11/1)
It is easy to understand why the bookmakers have priced up Spicy Marg as the short-priced 2/1 favorite. Michael Bell’s progressive three-year-old only just missed out on top honors last time, finishing a close second out of sixteen runners at Ascot when beaten a mere head by Venetian Sun in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup. However, she was suited by the fast pace and stiff track that day, and I am not entirely convinced she will hit those same dizzy heights again.
Second favourite, Flora Bermuda is officially rated a rock-solid 111 by the handicapper. That said, the five-year-old mare doesn’t possess the most convincing strike rate (3 wins from 21 starts) and arrives here on the back of a dismal performance, finishing dead last of eighteen runners at Ascot.
Elsewhere, First Instinct has struggled to recapture last year’s sparkling form, and the way she has been fading over shorter trips suggests that stepping back up to six furlongs is far from ideal. Meanwhile, Royal Fixation was a bit disappointing on her stable debut for Karl Burke, but she remains a classy type, and a return to her best would give her a major squeak.
With all that considered, I’m taking a chance on FITZELLA at a juicy 11/1, despite her finishing behind Spicy Marg at Ascot. She put in a vastly improved performance to finish a close-up fifth that day, and I strongly believe the Knavesmire will suit her prominent, front-running style much better. The fast ground won’t pose an issue, and she looks primed to hit peak form today.
The Verdict: Bypass the vulnerable favorites and back FITZELLA (11/1) at attractive odds.
Newmarket 15:35 — BLUE BOLT (3/1)
A select field of just seven runners heads to the start for the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes for fillies and mares. This is a tightly knit affair, with all runners except the designated pacemaker, Venosa, rated within 5 pounds of one another. However, Venetian Lace, Evolutionist, and Balantina have all been wildly out of form recently and are very easy to scrub off the shortlist.
Aidan O’Brien’s stable star Precise heads the market, having won six of her eight career starts — four of which came at the very highest level in Group 1 company. The three-year-old acts on any ground and arrives here fresh off a brilliant victory in the Coronation Stakes. Suffice it to say, she holds a massive chance, but at prohibitive odds of 8/11, I am content to pass from a betting perspective.
Instead, the value lies with BLUE BOLT. In the Group 2 Duke of Cambridge Stakes, Jancis finished a length-and-three-quarters second to Andrew Balding’s charge. Both fillies enjoyed a completely clear run that day, so I am not expecting a reversal of form. With the distinct potential for even more progression to come, this talented four-year-old should confidently confirm the placings and land the spoils.
The Verdict: BLUE BOLT (3/1) is the sensible alternative to standard-bearer Precise and can handle the step up in grade.
Ascot 15:10 — CIARRAI ABU (7/2)
Following a thoroughly disappointing down-the-field effort at Royal Ascot, I am incredibly surprised to see Crest of Wave sitting at the head of the market. While the grey is relatively unexposed and open to improvement, I couldn’t get anywhere near him at his current short odds.
Starlight Time is another who needs to bounce back and put a poor run completely behind him, while I am firmly against Ya Karim over this specific distance. Crown Office remains an intriguing runner, but when it comes to finding the likely winner, my mind is completely made up.
CIARRAI ABU was raised 2 pounds by the assessor for finishing fourth last time out, but to be completely fair, he would have won that race with a cleaner passage. The Harry Eustace-trained gelding grew restless in the stalls, missed the break, and was repeatedly short of room just as he wanted to mount his challenge, eventually finishing a fast-closing three-quarters of a length off the winner. Given that both the winner and the fifth-placed horse won next time out, the form looks rock-solid.
The Verdict: CIARRAI ABU (7/2) is a well-handicapped individual who looks ready to make amends for a luckless run last time.
Ascot 15:45 — GATEHOUSE (3/1)
Morbeh has been hit with a hefty 9-pound rise in the weights for his recent victory at Chester. While the first two home pulled well clear of the pack that day, it was achieved on vastly different ground to the quick surface he will encounter this afternoon. While the four-year-old may well handle the conditions, I am not inclined to take that soft-ground form literally.
Golden Knight is highly unexposed and can easily be forgiven his lackluster run at Ascot last time, where he was completely compromised by a wide draw. Ed Walker’s colt is fully expected to improve on his efforts so far this season, and a trip of 10 furlongs looks like the perfect compromise. However, carrying one pound overweight today certainly won’t help his cause, and in my book, he is simply the wrong favorite.
That opens the door beautifully for GATEHOUSE. This two-time winner from just five lifetime starts was only just touched off in a blanket finish at Nottingham last time out. That performance represented the gelding’s best-ever career run, strongly suggesting that a minor 4-pound increase from the handicapper won’t be enough to stop his forward momentum.
The Verdict: Take advantage of the market discrepancy and back the highly progressive GATEHOUSE (3/1) to strike.
