Part of our one to one coaching course covers How to win at in-play betting. When a student is ready, we switch focus to the highly lucrative ‘’live-betting’’ market.
To be honest, it’s not rocket science coaching someone into becoming a profitable gambler. The pre-requisites are simply discipline, understanding basic betting maths, and being able to get on. And, while ‘’in-play’’ betting takes a bit more understanding, it’s easy to spin a profit when you know how!
In this tutorial ‘’How to win at in-play betting’’, we give some easy to understand tips & tricks. If you are serious about becoming a a full-time professional gambler, you also have the option of taking our 1-2-1 coaching course. The price is just £550/€600/$700 per month, and it could be the best investment you ever make. For details email@example.com
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOOKMAKER METHODS
To understand the next part, you need to read a blog we recently uploaded New Bookmakers / Small operators - Getting branded won’t be easy. This is relevant has it explains how small operators are using a single odds-feed from Bet-Radar for in-play betting!
However, that doesn’t mean you won’t find value with small operators, because unlike with pre-match odds lines move quickly. It should be further noted, extra value can be created by bookmakers adjusting the odds key (%). This in turn leads to more leverage, and it’s your job has a pro punter to take advantage.
The other part to understand is Bet-radar use amalgamated odds, i.e. average odds from other bookmakers. And, on that note, big bookmakers make catastrophic misjudgements, and that leads to opportunity. In fact, we would liken it to sheep following each other into the slaughterhouse.
ALGORITHMS - SPORTS MODELLING - MACHINE LEARNING
Once upon a time, Bookmakers relied on odds compilers to provide betting lines. Nowadays, most use some form of sports modelling (algorithms) performed by a quantitative analyst.
Maybe some of you saw the film Moneyball (2011), in which Brad Pitt plays a baseball coach who goes on a record breaking winning streak? In the film, Pitt uses data driven analysis to recruit new players.
The fact is, bookmakers have long used technology to create odds, and machine learning is a big part of Sports modelling. The good news, no Sports modelling (algorithm) software is perfect, and it’s not has though bookmakers are sharing formulas with each other!
UK BOOKIES vs ASIA vs JUICE - HOW TO WIN AT IN-PLAY BETTING
Ever heard the saying ‘’ like taking candy from a baby’’? With regards to in-play betting, it means beating them is easy. Further good news, you don’t need an abundance of experience to become profitable!
Like previously mentioned, big bookmakers usually make their own in-play odds. And, while that might not be for every league/sport, it’s easy to identify when they are standing alone. Something else, a single trader is expected to handle several games at once, and that increases vulnerability.
It’s a fact that in-play betting is fluid, and traders don’t have much time to compare odds. Suffice to say, different opinion leads to opportunity through varying odds.
At this stage, it’s best we give a quick example on a Spanish cup game we noted in midweek.
Prior to kick-off the following three companies bet to the odds in brackets. Bet365 (107.2%), Unibet (106.8%) and William Hill (107.3%). At Asian-odds the best line weighed in at around 102.2%.
During the 30 minutes we tracked these three UK based bookmakers, the over-round varied between 105.12% to 107.08%. They compare to Asian-odds who combine the best odds from around six of 101.5% to 103.6%.
These odds were taken on exactly 20:00 minutes (we have locking software)
- WHILL: 3.40 2.50 2.75 (105.77 / 94.54% inverted)
- LADBROKES: 3.60 2.55 2.55 (106.22 / 94.14%)
- BET365: 3.90 2.50 2.45 ( 106.45 / 93.94%)
- UNIBET: 3.5 2.55 2.60 (106.15% / 94.21%)
At the same time:
BEST ASIAN ODDS COMBINED: 3.90 2.55 2.75 (101.22 / 98.79%), converts to 100% BOOK ODDS 4.13 - 2.70 - 2.58
If you believe the 100% book price you can have 2.75 on the away team (Whill), that compares to 2.58. That’s a big discrepancy!
Note - This was a low grade cup match. Not many other games were playing at the time, so you can imagine the possibilities during a busy phase.
DON’T OVERSTRETCH YOURSELF
Unlike with the punter, bookmakers are compelled to make in-play odds for hundreds of matches. With such small margins and a hectic schedule, you can imagine how vulnerable they become!
One secret is to pick and choose the games you are interested and knowledgeable about. We do exactly that, and our previous weekend schedule went:
- Chinese league - start 9:30
- England/Spanish lunch time games - Start 13:00 +13:30)
- German Bundesliga 15:30
- English Premier/Championship 16:00
- Belgium 18:00 + 20:00
- Dutch 18:30 + 20.45
- Switzerland 19:00
- France 20:30
- Italy 20:30
- Brazil 21:00
Sounds like a lot of work doesn’t it? . However, we only have a maximum of two games open at any given time. And, here is one of our secrets, we only bet during the period 15-30 minutes!!
METHODOLOGY - HOW TO WIN AT IN-PLAY BETTING
A typical saturday with
- Prior to kick-off - 10 mins gathering information. Which bookies are covering match, team news and weather conditions. We will already have information on match officials, and what to expect with bookings.
- Kick off - 15 minute observation period. During this period we take note, but more on that another time!
- Show time - 15th to 30th minutes is time for betting. During this period we may make one or more bets. Furthermore, we remove games that are not producing a betting angle.
- Max of two matches - One person, working maximum of two matches.
FALACY - HOW TO WIN AT IN-PLAY BETTING
You might have heard people in forums telling anyone who would listen to bet the draw before a game, and then sell it once the match reaches a certain stage. The reasoning, the draw will see odds decay once the clock starts ticking.
The latter is true, but will the odds drop fast enough to make this type of bet viable? The answer is generally not, and here is an example of a game we watched at the weekend:
- 3.10 3.30 2.65 (pre match odds)
- 3.25 3.00 2.75 (20.00 minutes)
- 3.45 2.70 2.80 (30.00 minutes)
If you had sold the draw following 20 minutes, you would have made the difference between 3.30 to 3.00 (0.30 cents). After 30 minutes this increases to 0.60 cents.
In betting terms, at 20 mins you have a winning bet at odds of 1.10, and at 30 mins the equivalent of 1.22. The maths is simple, odds now * by difference to make up pre-match odds (3.00 *1.10 = 3.30) and (2.70 * 1.22 = 3.30).
And, here’s the thing, on the exchanges odds for first goal before 29 minutes was 1.85 NO and 2.20 YES (100% book). Selling the draw at the time would have given a odds return of 1.22.
Note - While you have other possible draws at 1-1 2-2, and the chance to bet draw when one of the teams is leading
HUNTER GAMES BETTING IN-PLAY
We often use an in-play tactic called ‘’hunting’’, and we want to mention it in our ‘’How to win at in-play betting’’ . This usually occurs when we have extra time on our hands. Oh, and hunting means scavenging bookmakers for mistakes, wrong odds and the occasional arbitrage!
Examples of such
- Value play: We might make a value play when the odds are longer than on platforms we trust. Or, when a bookmaker is hanging out on a ledge, because they are literally forcing our hand.
- Arbitrage: We prefer value betting to arbitrage, because we don’t need cover. However, the latter is a possibility for guaranteeing a profit, so why not take the occasional free money! One tip we would give if you are ‘’arbing’’ is take the outstanding odds first.
- An example of such, If the majority of bookmakers are giving odds of 2.10 on player A, and one is ‘’standing alone’’ at 2.00 on player B. Make the bet on player B first, because if those odds got removed/refused you wouldn’t be able to get cover.
- Difference of opinion: If we are reading a game different to the bookmaker, we are happy to make a punt. Reasons for a different opinion could include refereeing decisions, cards given, injuries, changing weather, team performance etc. The list is exhaustive, but you get the idea.
Please note - we don’t bet hunter games with the same stakes has Pre Planned Games
PRE PLANNED GAMES BETTING IN-PLAY
We do a lot of homework before we place any bet, but with in-play betting it’s necessary to be well prepared. And, while we don’t want to give away everything in this blog ‘’How to win at in-play betting’’, here are a few basics.
- Exploration - prior to the game starting, gather thoughts on what you expect to happen (loads of factors).
- Player ratings - Expected performance of individuals, and how that’s working on the field.
- Conditions - Weather and size of crowd come to mind.
- Match officials - Use those first 15 minutes to eye any bias, and check against pre match expectancy
- Cards - Early cards, refs reaction could mean the match is going to be affected!
- Injuries - player changes, or someone hobbling (who’s going off - who’s coming on)
- Player Match-ups - Look for exposure and whether it is likely to be exploited.
- Number of chances - Should be inline with goal expectancy.
- Possession - Football is not rugby, quality of possession is more important than total.
- Ball action - segmenting field
- Crowd reaction - job of the away team is to quieten the crowd.
- Odds/Line - constantly check for value through different opinion
YOUR POSSIBLE ADVANTAGE OVER US - HOW TO WIN AT IN-PLAY BETTING
You win some, and you lose some. Our advantage over most of you includes:
- More experience, and more efficient - we do this for a living!
- We are proven long term winners - confidence is a great thing!
- Information and tools - We pay heavily, so it’s also a burden.
- Bookmaking and maths background!
- Team - We have built a strong squad.
- Sports modelling software.
However, it’s not one-sided, and most of punters out there can do something we cannot, namely
- Betting account options (using own name) - We are limited, you are not!
- Bet on the high street (soft touch), especially in the UK.
- Betting smaller sums is easier, can also use exchanges for such.
- Losers can become winners with more leverage (bookies take your bets longer)
- Betting on any sport/leagues - we can only bet on high liquidity games.
- Lower cost to get profitable information (i.e. buying our PREMIUM service)
- If you don’t understand the concept of value, don’t bet!
- Make sure you have quick TV pictures (check time of game on bookies site vs screen)
- Consider bookmakers time delay, taking a bet is around 5-6 seconds - play when the ball is neutral
- Stay within betting limits - don’t ask for more (referral takes extra time).
- Don’t have pre conceived ideas, let the game speak to you!
- If you are not disciplined, don’t get involved - in-play can be addictive to wrong people.
- Betting lower leagues, or alternative bets can equal quick account closure
- Bet with Asian bookmakers if you are good enough - limits higher + no ban!
- Don’t take money from winning accounts until limited - it will wake the bookie
- Stay within your means - don’t expose on one game!
IT’S A WRAP - HOW TO WIN AT IN-PLAY BETTING
We sincerely hope that this tutorial ‘’How to win at in-play betting’’ gets you on the right track. If you would like to take place on our 1-2-1 coaching course. The price is just £550/€600/$700 per month, and for details firstname.lastname@example.org
If you would like to subscribe to our highly profitable football betting syndicate tips, see our profits for the leagues we give out here https://betting-analyst.com/paid-elite . Then contact us at email@example.com . We also offer American Sports and Tennis for those wanting the best picks from those leagues.
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