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HOW TO WIN BETTING ON HORSES IN 2019 AND BEYOND

INTRODUCTION - HOW TO WIN BETTING ON HORSES

 

To win at racing, you will need betting knowledge, composure, and the ability to get on. Assuming you have those ingredients, the only challenge remaining is finding winners.

 

In this tutorial ‘’How to win betting on horses in 2019 and beyond’’, we are going to give you a better understanding of what’s needed to beat the bookmaker. 

 

PS - If you need profitable betting service, you can join our paid premium service. Send an e-mail to admin@betting-analyst.com 

 

 

 

 

SPORTS MODELLING ISN’T AFFECTIVE FOR RACING

 

Before we get down to the nitty gritty, we should mention Sports Modelling doesn’t work for racing. The reason, their are way too many dynamics involved.

 

Quantitative analysts might argue they can deliver accurate odds, but it’s not true. If it was, early odds would better reflect the starting price.

 

 

 

 

RISK MANAGEMENT + WAYS AROUND IT

 

The main tool online bookmakers have against professional punters is ‘’risk management’’. It is the risk managers job to close or limit winning accounts before they affect company profits! Nevertheless, professional punters can get around this in numerous ways. 

 

Spreading stakes through betting shops  will help avoid detection.

 

Professional punters also use Betting exchanges, with Betfair, Matchbook and Betdaq being the interesting ones. One piece of advice, you can lower your commission by getting Betfair through a betting agent!

 

Buying/Renting Betting accounts from third parties is another method used by professional gamblers.

 

You might be able to find third party accounts with VIP status. Since they are marked down ‘’losers’’, you will receive higher limits. The other positive, these accounts won’t be closed has quickly!

 

Pay others to open first time betting accounts. For an agreed payment, these third party accounts need to supply a set of documents for bookmakers KYC process. 

 

It works like this:

 

The betting professional opens a Skrill (wallet) account under the person’s name, meaning they control the e-mail address!.  

 

Funds can easily be transferred to this (email) account from the betting professionals main Skrill account.

 

This new account will be used to fund betting accounts and receive payments back from bookmakers. 

 

Winnings are transferred from that account back to the professionals e-wallet - job done

 

The other possibility is to visit the racecourse. It’s easier to spread stakes between the high number of bookmakers, albeit costs increase.

 

 

 

 

LEARN DYNAMICS OF RACING - HOW TO WIN BETTING ON HORSES IN 2019 AND BEYOND

 

At this stage, i would like point out i’m a former on-course bookmaker, and putting odds to horses is not for everyone.  That’s the reason people pay for  Betting-analyst premium service, because this free’s them up to concentrate on the actual betting and making money!

 

 

Nevertheless, we like our customers to understand racing. This is the reason we teach through tutorials and betting previews. Below you will find the following considerations:

 

 

 

MARK/WEIGHT - HOW TO WIN BETTING ON HORSES

 

After qualifying, all racehorses are allocated a handicap mark. 

 

In a handicap race, weights (jockey + saddle) are given according to a runners rating. For example, if horse A has a rating of 80 and horse B 75. Horse A would be asked to carry five pounds more than horse B. 

 

The runner with the highest rating carries top weight, and the one with the lowest rating is given the least weight. 

 

It’s our job to have our own opinion about a horses chance based on a number of factors. One of those is the current rating of a runner, and on that note we don’t need to agree with the h’capper. 

 

For the record, when a horse wins a handicap it is usually given a higher mark for it’s next race. Depending on the h’cappers view point, this could also apply to the placed runners. Those running further down the field are given a lower mark, thus in theory making it easier for them in future races. This process is called handicapping. 

 

Horses with higher ratings qualify for the better h’cap races, and that in turn means they compete for bigger prize money!

 

About 50% of UK and Irish races are handicaps. Suffice to say, in a non handicaps you can use the handicappers rating to guide on a runners ability. 

 

As already  mentioned, horses run to different levels under different circumstances, that brings us nicely on to our next point.

 

 

 

 

GROUND CONDITIONS ARE A BIG FACTOR

 

The state of the ground is a big factor. While good ground tends to level the playing field, extreme going creates a bigger bias. 

 

It’s fair to assume if a horse likes fast (firm) ground, chances are it won’t be good on heavy. The opposite is also true, that’s the reason for studying a runners profile in the form book!

 

Horses who have raced many (exposed) times are easier to evaluate, they have a longer history. In short, they have more form in the book!

 

With younger and less exposed types, pedigree (parents) might give us an idea of what to expect. For race readers, watching a runner go to post is  beneficial.

 

 

 

 

COURSE CHARACTERISTICS 

 

In the UK and Ireland no two courses are alike. Nevertheless, there are similarities, and it’s a good idea to  categorise tracks. Take into consideration the following:

 

Which way (circumference)  - Most tracks are either right-handed or left-handed. Exceptions are figure of eight courses such has Windsor or Fontwell (chase). Look how a horse has performed racing different ways, because for some it makes a big difference!

 

 

Course contours -  Is a track generally flat, or does it have undulations. Again it’s about doing your research, and knowing what to expect. Examples of undulating courses  Market Rasen, Epsom, Brighton, Fontwell, Plumpton & Newmarket. courses which are generally flat include York, Redcar, Yarmouth, Haydock & Warwick.

 

 

Course bends - Some courses are sharp, others galloping. It’s fair to assume the latter suits horses with a long stride, whereas nippy (small) types can generally handle tight bends - The best reference is the form book or video replays.

 

Stamina or Easy course - If a course has a stiff (uphill) finish,  look for a runner which genuinely stays further. Examples of stiff are Carlisle, Towcester, Leicester and Pontefract. 

 

Runners with circumspect stamina are best at easy tracks such has Redcar, Thirsk, Catterick, Fakenham and Musselburgh.

 

 

Front runner, or hold up horse -  While some courses are neutral, others suit front-runners better than those which come from behind. The opposite is also true, research and form an opinion.

 

For the record, courses which suit prominent racers include Redcar, Chester, Catterick, Musselburgh, Haydock, Bath and Yarmouth. And, for National Hunt (jump) add Huntingdon, Perth, Stratford, Uttoxeter, and Ludlow.

 

Hold up runners do well at Sandown, Kelso, Market Rasen, Salisbury & Towcester.

 

 

 

Draw bias - Ground conditions could affect bias. A start box which is an advantage on fast ground might become a disadvantage on testing ground! Course bias varies in degree, keep it realistic. 

 

 

Hurdles/Fences - At Sandown (railway fences), Ascot (stiff), Haydock (big), Cheltenham (undulations), Fakenham (low-grade of runners) and Musselburgh (badly placed) the fences take a bit of jumping.

 

Racecourses with lower casualty (fall/unseated rider) rates include Carlisle, Sedgefield, Warwick, Market Rasen, Fontwell, & Bangor. 

 

Note, jumping errors are costly, so consider ‘’pulled-ups’’ at all the various courses.

 

 

 

 

RACE DISTANCE- HOW TO WIN BETTING ON HORSES

 

Race distance is a very important factor. If the distance is too far a runner won’t get home. If it’s too short others are likely to have too much speed. Take into consideration all contingencies mentioned. If the ground is testing and the track stiff, look for a runner with more stamina. 

 

Holding back -  Many trainers race horses at the wrong distance until qualified for a handicap mark. A runner will never peak at the wrong trip, thus an opinion on a horses optimum distance should be formed.  Watch video replays and let your eyes be the judge. 

 

Expected pace - A race without front-runners is likely to be slowly run, thus giving circumspect stayers a better chance. A race with a number of front-runners is going to be fast from the start, this will put the emphasis on stamina. 

 

A slowly run race could have runners racing freely (pulling), watch for horses that are likely to ruin their chance by pulling.

 

Size of field - Bigger fields of runners  guarantee a strong pace, traffic will then become the main issue.

 

Ground conditions - A mile on fast ground isn’t as exerting as the same on heavy ground. 

 

 

 

 

FORM BOOK CONSIDERATIONS - HOW TO WIN BETTING ON HORSES

 

Imagine this scenario. You have the same runners, track, distance, ground, weights, jockeys and draw. Ask yourself, will the result be the same? The answer is probably not, because horses are not machines !

 

Delving deeper:

 

The best way to judge is watch live racing and video replays. The next best is to use the form book (racing post) and read the commentators analysis. 

 

Consider:

 

Time between races - Some horses are best with plenty of time between races,  others can race more often.

 

Time of year - Look at a horses profile, because it could point to them peaking at a certain time of the year. Note, this is particularly the case with Fillies/mares.

 

Trainer form - Stables have peaks and troughs too, consider how runners from different stables are running!

 

Travelling distance - Some horses don’t mind travelling long distances, others do. Consider course proximity to stable, and how they have travelled in the past.

 

Course form - Look for past performances on the same track, and form at similar tracks.

 

Ground form - As mentioned, know your horse. Do your research and form an opinion.

 

Size of field - Some horses are better in races with lots of runners, others don’t like being crowded.

 

Front runners - If you are betting a front-runner, an easy lead is more possible if no other front-runner is in the race!

 

Hold up horses - They need front runners to set the pace, without it they are unable to use finishing speed. 

 

Other factors- Change of stables,  runs better for a certain jockey, recent wind operation, added aides (blinkers/visor etc), and type of race (apprentice/amateurs) are worth a mention.

 

 

 

JOCKEY- HOW TO WIN BETTING ON HORSES

 

A top jockey taking the ride is a bonus, and when they are turning up for just one race is a tip within itself. However, it would be wrong to underestimate the value of a claiming jockey’s allowance, and that’s especially the case with rising stars. 

 

You can be certain that taking off weight  in long distance races and when the ground is testing is even more beneficial.

 

It’s always a good idea to look through a horses profile and analyse which type of jockey suits best. 

 

It’s worth mentioning some jockeys suit front-runners better than hold-up horses, and vice versa. 

 

Watch for jockeys who don’t always try. Some jockeys are simply going through the motions in low prize money races!

 

 

 

 

WEIGHT/MARK IS A MASSIVE FACTOR

 

In handicaps, many horses are better giving weight to inferior types, while others do better receiving weight from higher rated horses. A look through a runners profile will show you how it performed under different circumstances, take your findings on board!

 

Other factors:

 

Small field - Giving weight in a small field is more difficult, and it’s likely to be a tactical race.

 

Trip - Food for thought, a seven pound penalty over five furlongs (sprint) is worth 2 lengths. The same penalty in a four mile chase is worth around 15 lengths.  

 

Ground - On faster ground extra weight is less of a burden, the opposite is true on testing ground!

 

 

 

 

CONSISTENCY- HOW TO WIN BETTING ON HORSES

 

Racing is not an exact science, and one of the reasons is a horses lack consistency. While some run to a similar level, many don’t!

 

To identify when a horse is consistent or not, less experienced punters could refer to the racing post.  What they offer is a rating system which allocates a postmark to all runners in every race.  By looking into this performance rating, you can identify trends.

 

One thing is certain, the handicapper finds it easier to rate consistent horses. 

 

Chances are if a horse is placing a lot, the handicapper has it’s mark. That means it will find winning a bit harder, so consistency isn’t always a good thing!

 

Less consistent types are harder to judge, so it’s a good idea to look at win (%) record. Be careful with inconsistent runners following a win,  they are not certain to repeat the performance. With that in mind, they could be poor value and worth opposing next time out!

 

 

BETTING VALUE - PROCESS OF FINDING

 

Ask me what i want to bet in a race,  the answer will depend on the odds at the time. 

 

Betting early is the same has playing the futures market, in that we are second guessing conditions at post time. Suffice to say, it’s possible to beat the odds big or look very stupid.  

 

Accept, things are changing all the time, odds will move with changing information. Be ready to adjust, because sticking to original ideas for the sake of it isn’t a good idea. 

 

What will likely affect odds:

 

* Weight of money - balancing the market.

* Non runners -  For example, the pacemaker was out! 

* Changing ground - We are all wiser at post time and having watched a few races!

* How earlier races where run - Where they won from the front/behind. What about the draw and stamina required!

* Jockey trends - If one rider won earlier races punters are likely to latch on.

* Watching runners - in the parade ring and going to post!

 

PS - Horse racing isn’t an exact science - meaning the market at post time is not guaranteed to reflect true odds. 

 

Should you bet at lower odds than you expected - probably not. However, depends on your reading of value at the time!

 

Should you bet a selection when the odds have drifted - again will depend on your knowledge at the time. For example, if your planned bet is sweating like a pig, looks nervous, and went to post badly, it’s time for a rethink!

 

 

 

FIFTEEN TIPS FROM A PRO - HOW TO WIN BETTING ON HORSES

 

 

1. Don’t accept lower odds than your value line!

 

2. It’s not clever to put bigger stakes on short priced bets, and less on bigger odds. In fact, i often go to the opposite extreme.

 

3. You have seen the early odds drop - Don’t worry, they are likely to go bigger again when the course market opens. Afterall, those bookmakers haven’t ‘’laid a bet’’, and their tissue (crib sheet) could say something different!

 

4. Professional racing gamblers often win big money by betting multiples. While it won’t be possible everyday, when the opportunity is right go for the jugular. 

 

5. Don’t listen to jockeys and TV pundits, they are not professional gamblers. I always told my jockeys I’m not interested in their betting, because i know more than they do!

 

6. Small fields are more likely to throw up wrong results - because races become tactical.

 

7. French runners are badly handicapped when they come to the UK.

 

8. Don’t bet ex flat horses on their novice chase debut. Often they come with a lofty hurdles rating, but they are not natural jumpers.

 

9. If anyone tells you novice chasing is a bad betting medium, they are wrong. My biggest wins come in novice chasing, everyone to themselves!

 

10. One of the best times to bet is when the ground goes extreme, the elimination process is often easier!

 

11. Weight has a bigger affect in a small field. See a hottie (short odds) with a big weight, look for something to beat it!

 

12. Spread your bets between bookmakers, the last thing you need is a red card!

 

13. Look beyond the UK and Ireland, some of my biggest profits come from the PMU in France. Furthermore,  i don’t get warned off!

 

14. If you are playing the Arbitrage and best odds guaranteed game - you won’t get far. 

 

15. Forget prediction systems, or using algorithms. They can’t compete with the above!

 

 

The word you need to remember is CONTINGENCIES. Racing is full of them, and it’s what makes it so interesting!

 

 

 

I hope you benefit from this tutorial  ‘’How to win betting on horses in 2019 and beyond’’. While you won’t learn everything overnight, i believe it will give a decent insight. 

 

 

 

You also have the option to join our paid PREMIUM RACING SERVICE. We will give you all our best tips (100-150 per month), and at odds you can easily obtain. I would advise you to forget  services with ‘’best odds guarantee’’, and those giving bookmakers who won’t take a bet. Interested parties get in touch:

 

ADMIN@BETTING-ANALYST.COM

 

 

For those interesting in sports-betting, chaco out our tutorial PROFESSIONAL BETTING - MAKE MONEY FROM SPORTS BETTING IN 2019 (TUTORIAL)  - here is the link