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TIMING YOUR BET TO GET MAXIMUM VALUE

Betting is about the odds, anyone who tells you different is wrong. It’s really simple, if you are taking 1.90 when starting odds are 2.00 you are losing out. However, if you get 2.10 about the same bet you can beat the system. Timing your bet to get maximum value will help you win more!

 

 

EARLY MARKET vs LATE 

 

Early market betting can be likened with futures trading on the stock exchange. In this instance you are betting early because you believe the odds will drop. 

 

Betting near the start is more like playing poker when most of the cards are showing. It levels the playing field somewhat, in that everyone has the same information. We mean the starting line-up is known, and so is the weather! 

 

 

LOGISTICS OF BOOKMAKING

 

As you probably know, bookmakers release odds according to sport.  For example, first round tennis pairings are known after the main draw which follows  qualifications. The 2nd round onwards becomes available when winners of the previous round are known. Generally speaking, tennis odds will appear 12-36 hours before the planned start. 

 

The logistics of MLB baseball (teams play daily) mean odds first appear on match day,  it’s a similar situation with NBA and NHL.

 

Top league Football matches are priced-up earlier than most sports. Unless circumstances dictate otherwise, bookmakers release odds for leagues English Premier, Spanish La Liga, German Bundesliga, Italy Serie A, and France 1  on a monday. That’s 5-6 days before the kick-off, NFL is another sport which bookmakers offer early.

 

Anyone betting regularly will know when to expect first odds!

 

 

LIQUIDITY/LIMITS

 

One of the problems with betting early is lower limits.  It could be argued bookmakers are testing the market with first odds, albeit professional (non leisure) bookmakers such has Pinnacle-sports work with dynamic odds. What that means is betting lines move in accordance to weight of money being bet on each outcome. 

 

Suffice to say, such bookmakers need liquidity to get into the pool before increasing limits. For the record, top leagues attract the highest betting volumes!

 

As a rule of thumb, an EPL match with a £2200 Pinnacle limit on monday will have around £25,000 by the weekend! 

 

 

FOOTBALL - TOP LEAGUES

 

When the opportunity (odds) is right, betting early is lucrative! 

 

One of the tactics we use to good affect is taking ‘’early’’ high value odds and putting them into multiples or system bets.  The maths tell us multiplying favourable (over priced) odds converts into bigger margins!

 

Betting top leagues early with Asian h’cap bookmakers (Pinnacle, SBO and IBC) is another possibility. By spreading stakes and making repeat bets (allowed after a time) it’s possible to get several thousand £/$/€ without suffering line slippage. The main downside of betting early is odds are often a pip lower (i.e. 1.96 each of two instead of 1.97) than later in the week.

 

As we get nearer kick-off liquidity (pool size) and limits increase. By friday evening (for saturday games) it’s possible to bet £/$/€50,000 to 100,000 on top league matches without suffering line slippage. It’s at this competitive stage the real betting action starts to take place!

 

Suggestion:

 

Bet early if the odds are ‘’standing-out’’.

 

Bet within 24 hours of kick-off if you want the most competitive book.

 

Bet within 30 minutes of the kick-off if you want all cards on the table.

 

Odds watch - get a feel for what’s happening!

 

 

 

FOOTBALL - SECONDARY LEAGUES

 

By secondary we mean solid leagues, not riff raft from the lower divisions in East-bloc, Mediterranean, South America, or African countries. Good examples of secondary leagues are Scandinavia, MLS,Turkey Super league, England 1+2, China Super league, J-League, Scotland premier, Belgium Juplier, and French, Spanish & Italian Serie B. 

 

Leisure bookmakers start releasing odds by tuesday or wednesday. Despite bigger margins they give plenty of betting opportunity. Maybe one of the reasons is they can’t copy odds from Asian h’cap bookmakers. There is no liquidity on betting exchanges, and their own sports-modelling sucks! 

 

While leisure bookmakers have higher betting juice, they are not efficient. It’s true to say limits will be relatively low, so it’s wise to spread stakes thinly through shops or multiple accounts!

 

Fazit:

 

Timing your secondary league bets to get greater value will depend on knowledge and information. If you are capable of finding value on your own back, betting early is advantageous! Those needing Asian bookmakers or exchanges to guide are better waiting until 24 hours before kick-off!

 

 

TENNIS

 

First released tennis odds are laughable! Anyone with half a tennis brain can make them pay, that is if they were allowed! 

 

However, while leisure bookmakers are incompetent with odds, they are not totally stupid. The first odds come with very low limits and a watchful eye. If you are winning at first show, your account will become even quickly limited or closed!

 

Leisure bookmakers early tennis odds don’t have much merit. For betting purpose we don’t even consider them, no point if you are not allowed to bet. With that in mind, don’t show your hand until the market is properly formed! For us, that means waiting for Pinnacle to release odds, that’s when limits first start to increase. 

 

Note:

 

The best time to make tennis bets will depend on the grade of tournament. As a general rule of thumb, we tend to find the best betting value 3-5 hours before the match is due to begin!

 

 

NBA + MLB

 

Like with tennis, we prefer to wait until Pinnacle release odds for US sport. The problem with betting NBA + MLB early can be increased juice and low limits. Basically, what football odds do over a three-day period these do over 16/18 hours. 

 

With regards to MLB, we are waiting on ‘’pitchers’’ to become known. Money line / h’cap bets only become ‘’action’’ (bet to stand) if the named pitcher starts.

 

Looking through our data, we often find maximum value 6-12 hours before game start. If you are betting earlier than that, take into consideration bookmaker rules!

 

 

 

HORSE RACING (UK/IRELAND) 

 

Opening odds start to appear the evening before! Albeit, bookmakers open with massive over-rounds (higher margins), because they are testing the market. To put it into some sort of perspective, we took into consideration a 14 runner race at Bet365 odds. The Stoke-on Trent outfit opened with162% on the board. By 09:00 the next morning it was 137%, and at noon it had dropped to 129%. The starting price delivered from the track was 132%, whereas the best odds with bookmaker comparison site Odds-checker was 114%. 

 

Truth be known, racing bookmakers are generally useless. Many of the UK bookmakers are purchasing odds from third-party company’s who share the same  ‘’useless tag’’. With that said, risk managers assume control and decide who to lay and limits!

 

Suffice to say, as a professional gambler the process of trying to get on is the main challenge.

 

To avoid detection, one method employed by professional gamblers is to send runners (people) to bet in betting-shops. Another is using multiple third-party accounts to place many small stakes. For those who can find someone with a VIP  betting account, limits will be much higher. Betting exchanges are the other option, albeit that means wagering closer (more liquidity) to the race when markets are properly formed.

 

With regards to the odds, there is plenty of value in the early market. However, it won’t take much for winning accounts to become limited or stopped. With regards to best book percent, 1-3 hours before post time is  most competitive. With that said, value is available at any time of the day including within the starting price.

 

 

 

Power-tip

 

If you receive a tip and early odds have gone, check them again when on-course bookmakers open. Track layers haven’t taken any early bets, meaning they start with  a clean slate. For the record, odds often bounce back and there is plenty fluctuation!

 

If you can get higher stake at excessive odds, why not take and sell (lay) the rest at lower odds on betting exchanges. Imagine, taking 200 to win 1000 (5/1) and selling 100 of it at 4/1. You have effectively helped increase odds for the remaining 100 to 6/1. Use gamesmanship, ask for a bit more on exchanges. 

 

It’s imperative with racing that you learn to watch the odds. If all the bookies are offering the same, wait has odds are likely to go bigger. Keep on top of changes and only bet when you see odds falling. 

 

 

CONCLUSION

 

There is no blueprint, but timing your bet to get maximum value is super important. Like previously mentioned, you will benefit from odds watching and understanding when to take advantage of the market. 

 

Know your own strength and weakness. Keep track on when you bet, and the odds difference at the start. You will learn weakness and strength of your bets, and it’s that which will guide you into optimisation!

 

 

OPPORTUNITY - SERIOUS ABOUT BETTING ?

 

If the answer is yes and you are in a position to bet professionally, consider 1-2-1 (paid) coaching. Whether you are a beginner or betting syndicate, i can help you get more out of the bookmakers!

 

Ready to take a leap of faith? - admin@betting-analyst.com