YORK DAY TWO: FIRST THREE RACES PREVIEW & BETTING TIPS FOR FREE. We posted a winning selection on opening day courtesy of Maltese Cross, alongside a couple of other returns across the card. However, the absolute highlight of the day was landing the 12/1 about Carlisle winner Count Palladine. There is plenty more to get our teeth into on Thursday, and I’m back with analysis and selections for the opening three races at Knavesmire.
Before diving into Thursday’s card, a quick word on the noise online. Social media has been awash with absurd claims regarding William Buick’s ride on Ombudsman in the Juddmonte. While I entirely concur that he gave the John & Thady Gosden-trained 5-year-old a poor ride, suggesting he cheated is completely ridiculous and the talk of pocket-talkers. Even the most corrupt jockey on earth isn’t throwing a Group 1 worth £1.5 million—get a grip!
13:50 — LIBERTANGO (7/2 Betfair)
Joseph O’Brien is enjoying a stellar campaign, particularly with his international runners. He saddle early favorite Star Of Liberty, who was an impressive 9-length winner on her second start at Leopardstown. While that was a straightforward opportunity and this represents a step up in class, the daughter of State Of Rest has been supplemented and holds solid place claims.
Livenko continues on an upward trajectory, and a fair case can be made for 7/1 shot Wild Blossom. However, the strongest vote goes to Libertango, who was guilty of racing far too freely before finishing second at Newmarket last time out. Prior to that, the daughter of No Nay Never scored in an Ascot Group 3 against a massive 24-runner field. If anything, conditions should suit George Boughey’s charge down to the ground, and she looks the one they all have to beat.
14:25 — THEBESTHASYETTOCOME (13/1 Betfair)
Amy Murphy brings over one of her French raid crew in the form of Tokaido. Tony Piccone retains the ride, and the gelding should get his preferred conditions. That said, it is difficult to see him coming out on top in a race of this quality.
Satellite Of Love could do no more than win his first two starts and leaves the impression that there is plenty more in the locker. Having Rossa Ryan taking over in the saddle is a definite positive, but you would want a bit bigger than 5/1 in a contest like this. On paper, Vollering holds a better chance than his odds of 25/1 suggest, though he may prove better suited by a drop back to the minimum trip.
Aidan O’Brien fields race favorite Sun Goddess, who has taken three of her five career starts to date. Receiving the sex allowance offsets part of her penalty, making her the form pick. At odds-on, however, the value lies elsewhere.
The value play is the Adrian Keatley-trained Thebesthasyettocome, who looks fittingly named. Mikey Sheehy scored on him last time with plenty in hand, and he looks set to thrive under today’s conditions. At 13/1, he is worth backing to step up again.
15:00 — CENTIGRADE (5/2)
Mezcala is a better horse than his last run implies, and he should be well suited by a return to softer ground and a step back up to a mile. The Jack Channon-trained 4-year-old is certainly one for the shortlist.
Bullet Point checks the course-and-distance box and represents a yard capable of targeting these handicap prizes. However, he looks fairly exposed at this stage, and it is hard to construct a winning case for him. Hawksbill is an intriguing longshot at 16/1, but anything other than a win for the favorite would be a surprise.
That favorite is Centigrade, representing the in-form Ralph Beckett stable. The lightly raced 4-year-old possesses the scope to prove significantly better than a handicapper, having made a winning seasonal reappearance by a comfortable 2.75 lengths. The son of Too Darn Hot will relish conditions today, and he ought to get the job done in decisive fashion.
