Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns – Pick. We sent out 5 picks to NFL subscribers, and we will have more on gameday.
Great start to the new season, we won both our bets on the Bills!
We use Sports-modelling (data science) for all our NFL Betting. During the 2021/22 season, the bets we made ended with the following ROI. Money line +7.66%, Handicaps +8.11%, Totals +4.28% and Player markets +11.13%.
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CAROLINA PANTHERS vs CLEVELAND BROWNS – PICK
If we are to believe in the outright market, this game is finely balanced. The Cleveland Browns are being offered at -103 (1.97) by Pinnacle & 5dimes, and they are +100 (2.00) on the Betting Exchanges. For the record, those odds dropped from +106 (2.06) over the past day. In the meantime, Carolina Panthers drifted from an opening -113 (1.885) to -105 (1.95) and -102 (1.98) can be found on the Betting exchanges.
If you are betting on this game, we suggest market watching. After all, Pinnacle will reduce margins from -5 cents to -4 cents on the day, and exchanges will have more liquidity. If you have access to the latter, Matchbook is interesting because liquidity is being fed by Asian books and commission rates are lower.
The total expectations of the bookmakers are relatively easy to formulate. By using last year’s regular season averages Cleveland 42.35 and Carolina 41.65, the line balances at exactly 42. At the time of writing, that is the total line Sports books are using for this opening game.
However, if we take the Browns away (41.65) and the Panthers at home (49.13) that average creeps up to 45.39. Furthermore, when we delve deeper into players participating in those games, we can compensate with another +0.72.
Looking at the roster for the season opener, Chris Hubbard (OT), Michael Woods (WR) and Jack Conklin (OT) have a questionable status for the Browns. Whereas, of the expected starters, only Brandon Smith (LB) is questionable for the Panthers.
The weather should be near perfect. We expect this total line to move up and start at around 44. We are recommending taking the bet today (Saturday)
BET: OVER 42