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EPSOM VALUE RACING TIP
3:00 SOTO SIZZLER 7/1
Last season, CAIUS CHORISTER improved from an opening mark of 56 to close at 97. During a busy campaign, David Menuisier’s filly won 5 of her 10 races. Incidentally, the 4-year-old is 2 from 2 at this track, albeit those Epsom wins came at 12F.
For the record, the daughter of Golden Horn hasn’t won at any distance less than 11F. Also, 4 of her 5 wins came on the ground described as good-firm, and she was less impressive when winning on good.
A high opening mark, different ground, and the drop in distance are all negative factors!
During the first week of the new season, Andrew Balding was firing home the winners. However, over the past 14 days, the Kingsclere trainer had just 1 winner from 34 runners.
In this race, Balding is represented by the consistent SCAMPI. The 5-year-old is on a career-high handicap mark and he would prefer further. To cut a long story short, at current odds I would lay him.
As for LORD PROTECTOR, Ralph Beckett’s gelding has a definite chance. After all, he goes well fresh, and he comes from a stable that knows how to get them ready. If a recent wind operation did its job, the odds of around 9/2 would be right.
The stable of William Haggas is starting to peak, and he’s got an unexposed runner in this race. The trainer’s EDUCATOR should be capable of better this season, and returning from a break isn’t going to be an issue. However, Tom Marquand’s mount is short odds, and he’s unproven at the track.
On that note, SOTO SIZZLER ticks the course & distance box. He won three of his 6 races on this track, and he finished 2nd on the other occasions.
While the 8-year-old didn’t do much on his return, he got upset in the stalls. Furthermore, he’s always needed a run, and all-weather racing isn’t his thing!
In the meantime, Gary Moore’s charge went down two pounds in the handicap. He’s on the same mark as when winning this last year, and these conditions will suit him best!
To conclude, these handicaps always take a bit of winning. Nevertheless, course & distance form at Epsom is worth double, and SOTO SIZZLER comes from a stable that is firing home the winners. At these odds, the choice is clear!