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HUNTINGDON 1:30 POLICE ACADEMY 8/1
Dan Skelton had just one winner (4%) from his last 26 runners, whereas his overall strike rate is near to 19%. While that wouldn’t necessarily turn us away from KATEIRA, the odds of ‘’even’’ money do.
Nevertheless, I would rate the 6-year-old at around 112, and that would give her a few pounds in the hand of LETS GO TO VEGAS. I would give Alistair Ralph’s mare a rating of around 109, thus she will need to improve. In receipt of 7 pounds, POLICE ACADEMY is interesting.
Based on her last effort, Oliver Sherwood’s 6-year-old could be rated 109. Suffice to say, doing the maths gives her a better chance than her odds suggest.
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SEDGEFIELD 12:50 CIANCIANA 7/4
Despite this being a weak race. HIDALGO DE L’LISE is better at home than at the track. In fact, the son of COASTAL PATH was a beaten favourite on all three occasions. The ground is another unknown factor, and so is the step up in distance. Also, he’s not been finishing his races, thus the last thing he needs is a slog! To cut a long story short, Donald McCain’s 6-year-old is the ideal lay.
BIG GANGSTA might have won a point-to-point, but he’s been pulled up in three of his 8 races. Moreover, James Moffat’s 7-year-old weakened quickly on his hurdling debut, and he might be in need of a wind operation. While it’s interesting to note that connections continued with CALEVADE, he’s returning from a three-year absence.
Following two moderate runs, THESE HAPPY DAZE needs to bounce back to his Worcester form. Of those with handicap marks, FEARLESS ACTION comes out best. However, he dropped five pounds following his last run, and based on that effort he’s got something to prove.
Meanwhile, CIANCIANA won two of her 15 flat races, and in that sphere, she’s rated a fair 67. The 4-year-old hasn’t reached that level in her two hurdle races, but she’s done enough to win a race like this. After all, she’s battle-hardened and receiving the sex and age allowance.
Furthermore, Patrick Wadge is taking off a useful 7 pounds, which in turn means she will be carrying 29 pounds less than the favourite. While the extra distance and ground are slight worries, I can’t imagine them going very fast in this race. Consequently, the weight she receives is too much of a carrot.