Leopardstown: High-Value Racing Tip For Free. It’s interesting to watch the early market changes, especially when I believe they are all wrong. This fella drifting to odds of 7/2 is the gift of the day, although I expect those odds to drop again!
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BUTCHER HOLLOW 7/2
With his 28% strike rate, Willie Mullins always needs to be taken seriously. However, if over the past 5 years, you have been following his runners blindly, you would be around -14.5% ROI at SP.
In this race, Mullins is running hurdling debutant JADE DE GRUGY. On her only run to date, Adrien Fouassier sent her out to win a Saint-Brieuc AQPS (NHF) race on good to soft ground.
A search through the form reveals that nothing franked the form, and those types of races tend to be low quality. Nevertheless, the Mullins team must have seen something in the daughter of Doctor Dino, but should she be such a short-priced favourite?
Debutant, GOLD IN THE RIVERS represents the all-powerful Gordon Elliott stable! However, while Connections paid €220,000 for the son of WALK IN THE PARK, that transaction took place in May 2022. Indeed, the 4-year-old gelding must have had training problems and I’m pessimistic about his chance!
The likes of WHALE HARBOUR & COBRA QUEEN have shown some promise, but both will need to improve. At around 16/1, a case could be made for a small bet on QUEEN OF SEDUCTION.
The Jessica Harrington-trained daughter of MASTERCRAFTSMAN was rated a solid 84 on the flat, and with 17 runs under the belt, she’s going to be battle-hardened. My only beef with filly is she was beaten a long way in her most recent race, and she lacks scope.
While there are some unknown factors in this race, I’m all-in on BUTCHER HOLLOW. The Thomas Cooper-trained gelding was a wide-margin winner of his only point-to-point. On his rules debut, after travelling strongly he won a Galway bumper race by 4.5L. The 2nd, 3rd, and 5th placed runners all went on to win hurdles, and on his hurdling debut 2nd of 26 to JOGORO.
I should mention he was impeded twice by a loose horse that day, and a mistimed jump at the 3rd last lost his momentum. Nevertheless, it was a promising effort, and he did beat the other 24 runners!
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