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SOUTHWELL 1:35 QUIET FLOW 11/2
It is somehow amazing that a runner who was beaten 78 lengths was raised another pound in the ratings. I am referring to WHO IS THAT, who is also the bookmaker’s favourite!
Tom Midgley’s mount QUIET FLOW has a lot in his favour. Firstly, he’s on a nice mark, and his jockey will take off another 5 pounds. Secondly, he’s got his ground, and finally, he’s back down to his best distance!
SOUTHWELL 2.05 ARDMAYLE 7/1
We bet HERE WE HAVE IT when he won over the CD winner. Nonetheless, he’s short in the betting, and for the value, we need to look further.
Sue Smith is running two, and the one receiving the most support is ONESOC. I too would put him ahead of his stable companion TRESHNISH.
Nevertheless, neither is handicapped to win and I readily prefer CD winner ARDMAYLE.
The 11-year-old is just one pound over his last winning mark, and he’s won from higher. Daryl Jacob’s mount ran well on his return, and he’s going to strip fitter today.
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SOUTHWELL 2:40 MINELLADESTINATION 13/2
While MIDNIGHT CALLISTO goes well for an inexperienced rider, carrying top weight and dropping back in distance will prove problematic.
Another unknown factor is first-time blinkers because we don’t know if they will have a positive effect. In summary, Anthony Honeyball’ trained’s mare. is respected but beatable!
According to her flat rating of 77, the Harry Eustace trained AT A PINCH is well treated over hurdles. Moreover, the 5-year-old could improve in this sphere and she should place.
HARKANGEL starts handicapping from a low mark, and she should be competitive for a place.
If we cut to the chase, the only one that interests me is MINELLADESTINATION. The 6-year-old is back on the ground that suits, and she’s been dropped to a winnable mark. Also, her jockey takes off an additional 5 pounds, and she comes from a stable that is starting to click!
SOUTHWELL 3:40 CHOSEN PORT 11/4
If she’s to offset her penalty, SEDGE WREN will need to improve her jumping. Switching to a left-handed track is a positive, and so is the extra distance. On the downside, the 5-year-old will be carrying a 7-pound penalty for winning and that will make it harder.
While rules debutant WESTERN JILL should run well, she’s likely to need fences.
Consequently, I’m with CHOSEN PORT. She was a good winner of a point-to-point and should have more to offer over hurdles.
FAIRYHOUSE 1:45 VELVET ELVIS 9/2
In all honesty, my main bet here is laying the favourite MINELLA CROONER!
Betting runners from the Gordon Elliott stable is a quick way to the poor house, and this race is more competitive than the odds suggest.
CAPE GENTLEMAN ran poorly last time out, and topweight won’t help his cause.
As for the selection, VELVET ELVIS pulled up on the last two occasions! With this in mind, the selection will need to get his act together. On a positive note, he probably needed those races. In fact, a look through his profile supports that theory. Furthermore, a return to the good ground will help his cause.